The state media in Serbia were unanimous in praising the agreement on military cooperation between Serbia and Hungary: “A bomb that shakes the region,” wrote the tabloid Informer. The government newspaper Kurir saw it as a “historic moment.” The news reports speak of “new proof of iron friendship,” and the Republika portal claims that “Croats and Albanians are in a panic over the Serbian-Hungarian military alliance.”
Whether it was newspapers, TV stations or internet portals, all the media under strict state control unanimously reported on the military alliance signed in Belgrade in early April by the Ministers of Defense of Hungary Kristof Sálaj-Bobrovnicki and Serbia Bratislav Gašić. A few days later, the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik announced that the entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina would join the “new military alliance.”
Serbian media on both sides of the Drina presented the new "military pact" as a reaction to the recently agreed military alliance between NATO partners Croatia and Albania, as well as Kosovo, whose independence from Serbia was not recognized by Belgrade until more than a decade and a half later.
"What is particularly worrying" is that "that military alliance was formed without consultation with Belgrade", criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Serbia. It added that the goal of the agreement is to isolate Serbia and create "paramilitary structures" in Kosovo, as well as that this represents a "gross provocation."
Military agreement between Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina
So what does the agreement between the governments in Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina actually envisage? The agreement signed on March 18, 2025 in Tirana by the defense ministers of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo envisages cooperation within the framework of NATO's Strategic Concept and the European Union's security policy. Strengthening cooperation between the arms industries and training of soldiers and officers. And joint military exercises are also planned.
Within the framework of Euro-Atlantic integration, one of the focuses is on measures to combat cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Although Serbia claims that it is threatened by this new military alliance, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković assures: "This memorandum of cooperation has no hostile character."
However, decades of national rivalries and animosities between Serbia and Croatia fueled the trilateral agreement. Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anušić gloated: “The times when Croatia had to ask Belgrade what it was allowed to do and how it should act are over. That will never happen again.”
Zagreb's Jutarnji List claimed that the all-powerful Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić had a nervous breakdown over the deal. That's why the triumphant headlines in the Serbian press were quite logical: "Croatia and Albania receive express response: Hungary and Serbia sign military alliance."
What did Belgrade and Budapest agree on?
However, if you take a closer look at the "military alliance" between Belgrade and Budapest, which is presented as historical, you can see that it is a political spin of the media scene controlled by Vučić. "It is in line with Vučić's other marketing tricks," opposition politician Petar Bošković told Danas, a Belgrade newspaper critical of the government in Belgrade.
Serbian military expert Aleksandar Radić explained on several websites what the alleged military alliance is really about: "There are no elements of a military alliance," reads his analysis. The pompously announced agreement contains only specific military cooperation projects that were agreed upon annually based on the framework agreement from 2023. Vučić himself responded: "The goal is a military alliance," for which the course has only now been set.
Increased risk of war in the Western Balkans?
However, regardless of the agreed military cooperation, and however vague it may be, the Western Balkans region has been witnessing drastic armament for years. Croatia, for example, which has just reintroduced conscription, has purchased Rafale fighter jets from France and is negotiating the delivery of Leopard tanks. Serbia has also concluded a contract with Paris to purchase the same type of multi-role fighter jets, and is also acquiring weapons systems from Russia and China. “The fuse is still short in the Balkans,” is the title of a report by the German Bundeswehr on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina published last January. So how explosive is the situation really?
Although the motto of the Sarajevo-based portal Kliks still holds true: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” if you look deeper into the military balance of power, it turns out that war is unlikely in the near future. In early April, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that there was no need to put the situation in the region on the agenda of the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels. A good year ago, his predecessor Jens Stoltenberg also assured that there was no direct military threat.
"There is little chance of a real war breaking out," Vuk Vuksanović from the Belgrade Center for Security Policy is also certain. Despite rearmament, Vuksanović believes, these countries would not have enough resources for a conflict, and above all, local elites would have to fear for their positions in the event of war.
NATO is in control.
In addition, NATO has a strong presence in the region. In addition to Kosovo, all of Serbia's and Bosnia and Herzegovina's neighbors are members of the Alliance. The US operates a large military base in Kosovo, Bondsteel. The Romanian Mihail Kogelniceanu Air Base near Constanta is currently being expanded at a cost of at least two and a half billion euros, to become the largest NATO base in Europe by area and to house 10.000 troops. A large naval base has long been planned in the port of Durres on Albania's Adriatic coast. To wage war against that military power would be tantamount to harakiri.
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