US President Donald Trump, to the surprise of the world public, has singled out the US from several international alliances, because he believes that his country does not need obligations and expenses from which it does not benefit. Thus, the Americans have already left the climate and arms control agreements Open Skies, and have also left the UN Human Rights Council and the agency that helps Palestinian refugees. In addition, he has shaken his country's bilateral relations with many others in the world, such as the popular "left doesn't know what the right is doing" and has put the US in a situation where it does not understand even its allies. As for NATO, its survival is uncertain, since Trump has repeatedly suggested the possibility of the US withdrawing from that alliance, and has already dismissed the current US envoy to the NATO Military Committee, Vice Admiral Shoshana Chatfield, and has not yet appointed a new general to that position.
During his first term as president, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the insufficient financial contribution to collective defense and announced that the Americans would not come to the aid of an Alliance member if it was attacked and did not allocate enough money for defense from its gross domestic product. This alarmed European allies and raised some doubts, including whether NATO could survive without America and its forces, but it also pointed to the need for defense reform in EU members.
The war in Ukraine has further highlighted the need for European defense reform, as while NATO has provided significant military and logistical support to Ukraine, it has become clear that the European Union cannot rely entirely on the United States. As a result, European countries are increasingly looking for ways to ensure their own defense independently of NATO. It is known that Germany and France have already launched initiatives to strengthen defense cooperation within the EU, including the development of joint military capabilities and the creation of a European army.
The creation of a European Defense Organization (ETO) could be the next step in this direction. Unlike NATO, which includes the United States and Canada, the ETO would focus exclusively on European interests and defense priorities. This would include: the development of its own military forces independent of American support, joint European military operations, greater integration of military industries in Europe, and an independent strategy towards Russia, China, and the Middle East. However, the creation of the ETO would not be easy, and a number of issues would need to be resolved, including financing, military coordination, and the relationship with existing NATO structures. Because some countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states, still prefer to rely on NATO due to fear of the Russian threat.
It is questionable whether ETO will be a complement to NATO and whether it could replace it in the long term, because if ETO becomes a reality, it could mean a weakening of American influence in Europe. There are also those who think that it is possible that the US will increase pressure on European allies to remain within NATO and continue to invest in joint defense. However, the problem is the percentage of GDP allocated to defense, since Trump insists on as much as five percent, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte would agree to three percent, and some countries can barely reach two percent.
Poland leads the list with four percent of GDP earmarked for defense, followed by the United States with 3,5 percent of GDP, but when looking at the total amounts, Washington allocates more than all other NATO members combined, a total of $860 billion. Interestingly, for the first time since the Cold War, Germany allocated two percent of GDP to defense last year. Turkey, which is not a member of the European Union but is in NATO, is also actively seeking to be included in Europe's defense system, and its president, Tayyip Erdogan, claims that his country can contribute a lot. Turkey is strategically located between Europe and Asia, and according to a report by the Global Firepower platform, its army ranks ninth in the global ranking of the world's strongest armies. It has left behind the armies of countries such as Italy, Germany, and Israel.
And finally, perhaps Donald Trump will somewhat or completely soften his negative views on NATO and realize that this alliance, due to the balance of power, is equally necessary for both Europe and the United States - to prevent the unilateral imposition of someone's will by force.
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