President Aleksandar Vučić has brought Serbia into a kind of limbo: official Belgrade, despite its declaratively proclaimed goal, does not want to join the European Union, but it must not abandon the path to EU membership. Both scenarios would automatically mean the beginning of a quick end to a regime that has been built for 13 years by promising one thing to the Europeans, another to the Americans, a third to the Russians, a fourth to the Chinese, and a fifth to the Turks.
While the authorities in Belgrade feign autonomy and independence, the intelligence apparatus and the ministries of power are largely, mainly for ideological reasons, under the control of Moscow; Beijing holds almost all important people in the top government in its hands and, thanks to the control systems of Chinese production, they know everything that is happening in Serbia; an agreement has been reached with the family of US President Donald Trump on capital deals and investments; the EU is the main donor, and EU member states are investors and trading partners, without which Serbia would go bankrupt within a few weeks.
When you take all of the above into account, the logic of the foreign policy acrobatics of a leader nurtured in the political wing of Vojislav Šešelj and Slobodan Milošević becomes much clearer. Of course, there is also the imperative of maintaining a high rating among the electorate and building a cult of the president: a friend and ally of all the most powerful people in the world.
The arrival of European Council President Antonio Costa to Belgrade, as part of his Western Balkans tour during which he will visit all six countries in the region, will not be much different from all previous visits of a similar kind, despite Vučić's attendance at the military parade in Moscow.
EU officials, especially those in key positions in the European Council or the European Commission, must present positions that represent the common position of all 27 states when they visit third countries or when they make official statements. Their room for manoeuvre is very limited and they are not allowed to go it alone.
Also, a very important motive for the EU's cautious behavior towards Serbia is the issue of Kosovo. Paradoxically, the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, on the one hand, conditions Serbia's European integration process, and on the other, it is a kind of insurance policy for Belgrade that the EU will not give up on the idea of Serbia becoming part of its family. Namely, the only tool the EU has at its disposal to peacefully resolve the Kosovo issue is Serbia's European integration process.
The EU will not take drastic steps towards Serbia for objective and extremely rational reasons, despite the fact that there are circles in the EU, in the Western Balkans region and in Serbia itself that are increasingly calling for the EU, its member states and institutions to take measures against the regime in Belgrade. Leaders in key European capitals, as well as heads of EU institutions, are aware that such moves would have a counterproductive effect, as the citizens of Serbia would pay the price, and Russia and China would strengthen their positions in the Western Balkans.
Objective motives lie in the fact that it is not possible to create a consensus in the EU to introduce sanctions or any serious measures against Serbia, of course, as long as Serbia does not undermine or threaten the stability and security of the region or any of the Western Balkan countries, then everything would change fundamentally and Belgrade knows this very well. Rational motives are gathered in the sincere desire of the vast majority of EU members and EU institutions for Serbia to progress towards EU membership through concrete results, decisions, implementation of reforms, harmonization of foreign policy and to complete the enlargement policy. Of course, while respecting all parameters and fulfilling the stipulated conditions.
Also, the EU is not like the Russian Federation or China to punish disobedient or naughty allies by turning off the gas tap or suspending shipments of oil or primary materials (Russia) or by seizing property or strategic resources, terminating or drastically reducing trade cooperation (China). The EU, with all its shortcomings and difficulties, treats the candidate countries for EU membership as allies, ready to help the integration process, not to hinder it. After all, it is enough to look at how much the EU has helped Serbia and other countries in the region financially and in every other way and compare it with the type of aid and investments of other planetary and regional actors, so that the picture becomes clear who has what interest in our region.
Serbia's European integrations are a shack neither in heaven nor on earth because they are a prisoner of Belgrade's politics and the rules of decision-making in the EU, as well as the balance of power between member states. Serbia has not been blocked on its path to EU membership for years because of Kosovo, but primarily because of its policy towards Russia. The litmus test of the wrong direction of Serbian policy in the last three and a half years is Montenegro and above all Albania. In February 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama seized the opportunity that presented itself to the countries of the Western Balkans to change their history and accelerate the path to EU membership.
From that moment on, Tirana has been doing everything that is asked of it, and more. The move to open a center for asylum seekers in Italy, with the possibility of it being for the entire EU, was Rama's brilliant idea that opened the doors of the EU wide open for him. In Montenegro, the process of "opening one's eyes" was much more difficult and arduous because it involved a change of government and "drawing" to local actors that Podgorica had a historic opportunity that should not be missed.
Serbia and its president experienced the Russian aggression against Ukraine almost as an Armageddon, misjudging the direction that the EU's enlargement policy would take, so they decided to sacrifice Serbia's European path and the prosperous future of its citizens with the intention of proving the alleged independence, autonomy and correctness of the "four pillars" policy (Russia, China, the USA and the EU), instead of using the momentum of the decade for Serbia's progress towards EU membership.
Albania will open Cluster III in a few weeks. Having already opened Cluster II and Cluster VI, Tirana will overtake Belgrade in terms of the number of chapters opened individually. Let us recall that Albania began negotiations with the EU in the summer of 2022, and Serbia in January 2014. So, the Albanians have done more in the negotiation process with the EU in three years than Serbia in 11, and this speaks volumes about Rama's determination and Vučić's reluctance towards EU membership.
Also, in Albania, they have worked in all previous years to strengthen and maintain public support for EU membership, and today it is almost plebiscite, with over 90 percent of the population. Thanks to this circumstance, it was possible to create a social consensus and a synergistic atmosphere for progress in European integration.
For decades, the media space in Serbia has been contaminated by the combined forces of Russian propagandists and local anti-Western and anti-European forces, with great support from the retrograde part of the Serbian Orthodox Church (to avoid confusion, there is also a healthy wing in the SPC), which instead of God has secular masters and does not care about the souls of Orthodox believers, but about wealth and privileges, of course wrapped in stories about Serbianness and patriotism. A film seen a thousand times that always works well.
If you analyze the phrases and keywords used by anti-European and anti-Western tribunes in Serbia, you will notice that they are identical to those that have been spread for decades by Russian propaganda through media outlets under direct control, or through paid or voluntary “useful idiots” in EU member states and the Western Balkans. In the meantime, these anti-European slogans, conspiracy theories and vulgar vocabulary have been adopted by the government’s flagships, the media under the regime’s control and the so-called bots on social networks.
Thus, we have arrived at Serbia, where only a third of citizens support EU membership, and a good portion of citizens, together with the leaders of the ruling coalition, but also some opposition leaders, wish or even believe that the EU will disintegrate, that the US will withdraw from the Old Continent, and that Russia and China will take advantage of the empty space and become the new masters of Europe, where they, as faithful vassals of Moscow and Beijing, will be able to settle scores with "accidental Serbs", some Montenegrins, Croats, Bosniaks, Albanians and other enemies, and collect the dividends of the choice to side against their continent.
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