When then-US President Franklin D. Roosevelt wanted to normalize relations with the Soviet Union in 1933, he told Joseph Stalin that the Kremlin must first abandon subversive activities within the US. President Ronald Reagan acted similarly when he wanted to ease Cold War tensions: his Secretary of State, George Shultz, made it clear to Mikhail Gorbachev that Soviet spies had to stop spreading the lie that AIDS was the result of US biological weapons research.
President Donald Trump, it seems, wants to follow his predecessors and improve relations with the Russians. But instead of demanding that the Kremlin stop its malicious activities, his administration is unilaterally laying down its arms in front of Moscow, offering it quid without quo.
Since returning to power, Trump has been weakening government agencies that were a bulwark against foreign interference. His administration has been firing FBI officials involved in criminal investigations against him, leaving it without dozens of its most experienced agents, while at the same time removing or reassigning senior officials from the bureau’s national security group and intelligence division. At least 17 employees in the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) have been laid off, tasked with protecting election integrity and combating the spread of disinformation; the formal explanation for the layoffs was an announcement that the agency was refocusing on its original mission—protecting critical infrastructure (and the fact that election systems fall into that category is irrelevant).
Similar cuts are being made to the CIA and the National Security Agency (NSA): the director and deputy director of the latter were reportedly fired at the recommendation of conspiracy theorist Laura Lumer. In addition, Trump signed an executive order cutting funding for the Global Media Agency, which, among other things, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Free Asia i Voice of America.
All of these cuts make America vulnerable to foreign subversion. Cutting the FBI's wings weakens the bureau's ability to investigate foreign interference, and firing experts who have contributed to preserving the integrity of elections increases the opportunities for America's enemies to sow confusion by spreading conspiracy theories and casting doubt on election results.
The effects of such malign influence on American politics are already visible, and now things are set to get even worse. Arbitrary layoffs in intelligence agencies are creating a cohort of financially vulnerable, potentially disgruntled current and former employees who will now be targeted by foreign intelligence services; efforts by Russia and China to recruit former members of the US services have already intensified, aided by recruitment agencies that are not necessarily required to reveal the identities of their clients.
Similarly, silencing strategically important broadcasters like Radio Free Europe deprives America of a valuable source of global soft power. At a time when Russia and China are expanding their own soft power activities, shutting down such organizations makes no sense.
As co-authors of a book on the history of subversion, A Measure Short of War: A Brief History of Great Power Subversion, we are able to state how strange this behavior is. In all our studies of subversive activities and ways to counter them, from ancient times to the present day, we have not come across a single case in which the targeted country unilaterally disarmed. What is happening?
External attempts to weaken or change the policies of a leading power are as common as the states themselves. The Trump administration has the right to reorganize the bureaucracy within legal parameters, but its indiscriminate approach runs counter to the 2.000-year history of great powers using military might, deterrence, and diplomacy to keep external threats in check.
Countries defend themselves against foreign interference by educating their populations and strengthening their own resilience to potential attacks—for example, by providing resources and advisory assistance to those involved in organizing local elections. Subversion is deterred by threatening to respond in a way that is painful for the other side if things get out of hand—for example, by broadcasting unpleasant truths about the subversive state’s activities on its territory, or by blocking its vital capabilities, as US Cyber Command did with the Russian Internet Research Agency during the 2018 midterm elections.
In order to keep enemy subversive operations at a tolerable level, targeted countries also use diplomatic sticks and carrots - for example, by offering in return to reduce their own subversive activities (such as promoting democracy, which from the Kremlin's perspective is a threat). But for such measures to make any strategic sense, behind each quid must follow quo.
Is the Trump administration seriously working behind the scenes to find common ground with the Kremlin, perhaps encouraging the Russians to back down by offering them mutual de-escalation? If not, then what we are witnessing is unprecedented. It makes no strategic sense for the United States to stop playing hardball with enemies who continue to undermine it.
Unilaterally removing the barriers that prevent the spread of disinformation, election interference, and other hostile activities is clearly dangerous. Is there some unprecedented strategic logic in undermining America’s defenses, or is Trump driven solely by neuralgia caused by the investigations into his first campaign’s ties to Russia?
Because the moves it is making seem self-destructive, the Trump administration owes Americans some explanation. Some tactics may need to remain secret, but the broader strategy should be subject to democratic accountability. In the days of Roosevelt and Reagan, the “I to you, you to me” approach was transparent and public. When Roosevelt was in the White House, official American policy was to delay diplomatic recognition of the USSR until Moscow met a series of demands—including the cessation of Soviet subversive activities in the United States. When Reagan was in the Oval Office, the State Department’s Active Measures Task Force openly collaborated with editors and diplomats around the world to expose Soviet disinformation.
The chaos in the US defense system leaves the country vulnerable. If Trump truly cares about American sovereignty, he should convincingly convince the public that the country's defense capabilities have not been compromised.
J. Kastner is a visiting researcher at the Department of War Studies, King's College London;
WC Wohlforth is a professor of public administration at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, USA.
(Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025; prevod: radar.rs)
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