The double-headed eagle that dominates the Russian coat of arms carries a wide range of symbolism - from its historical connection to the Byzantine Empire, to its recognition of the influence of the country's vast eastern and western regions. Following the recent meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul and a phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, the double-headed eagle is now also a reminder of Russia's internal duality - a country pulled in different directions by opposing forces, threatening to tear it apart.
After a long period, Vladimir Putin has managed to gain the upper hand in the war in Ukraine. Russian troops are advancing - albeit slowly - towards establishing full control over the areas that Russia declared its own back in September 2022: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia. The country has achieved this goal despite unprecedented Western sanctions and billions of dollars in aid that Ukraine has received from abroad. In doing so, Putin has sent a clear signal to the West and all potential adversaries: Russia should not be underestimated. This, by all accounts, is the most opportune moment to stop the fighting.
Yet, at the first direct talks between the two sides since the war began – held last Sunday in Istanbul – the Russian delegation presented a list of harsh demands that Ukraine could not agree to. It also threatened to “fight the war forever”. As the head of the Russian delegation grimly noted: “Don’t forget that in the 21th century Russia was at war with Sweden for XNUMX years.”
The negotiations ended after just a few hours, and the Russian stock market immediately reacted by falling. The warning to investors was clear.
Putin essentially confirmed his delegation's demands during a two-hour meeting with Trump on May 19. But as the two men spoke, investors remained optimistic, hoping for a positive outcome - they predicted the dollar would fall to 78 rubles (up from above 100 until recently).
And most ordinary Russians want the war to end. Few dare to openly call for peace - the risk of arrest remains real - but the independent Levada Center reports that about two-thirds of the population do not believe that hostilities should continue, while 48% cite war as one of their greatest fears. Almost 47% of Russians are convinced that the war in Ukraine has done more harm than good.
Years of war and sanctions have changed life in Russia - and not for the better. People used to have savings, but now they spend everything they have, often going into debt. According to data from the research company Romir, the average Russian household spent 5 rubles (about $11) on food and basic necessities between May 8.098 and 100 this year, compared to just 2023 rubles in the same period in 6.080.
This jump is a testament not only to the high inflation that has plagued the country since the beginning of the war, but also to the pervasive uncertainty about the future. People are afraid of what is coming - so they try to live today as best they can.
But living “as well as possible today” is not the same as living well. Just look at the summer holidays. Domestic tourism has become the only option for most Russians, due to strict sanctions that make it impossible to travel abroad. Not to mention the weakness of the ruble. In addition, the Black Sea coast, traditionally one of the favorite destinations, is now polluted with fuel oil. So it is not surprising that, even according to official opinion polls - which are always questionable in authoritarian states - only about 40% of citizens believe that their lives will improve in the coming years.
And we haven’t even touched on the shadow of mobilization yet. Putin likes to claim that, unlike Ukraine, Russia doesn’t have to “grab” people off the streets to send them into the trenches—supposedly 50 to 60 volunteers come forward every month ready to go to war. But in reality, these “volunteers” are either paid or coerced by regional officials, to whom the Kremlin sets quarterly quotas.
These regional leaders are well aware that war fatigue is growing in the country. Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of Primorsky Krai in Russia’s Far East, recently acknowledged this, noting in an interview that the colossal funds being spent on war – instead of improving the lives of citizens – are only fueling discontent among the people. Although Kozhemyako emphasizes his patriotic devotion, he openly complains about the serious drain of resources from his region. The Primorsky Krai government is finding it increasingly difficult to finance basic public services – such as healthcare and transport. Kozhemyako’s words make it clear that the region, which is one of the main sources of soldiers for the war in Ukraine, can no longer keep up with the personnel demands imposed by the Kremlin.
The Kremlin itself is acting in a contradictory way - just like the double-headed eagle on the national emblem. The end of the war in Ukraine could cause a wave of euphoria that would strengthen support for Putin. But if peace comes too quickly, the euphoria could subside even before the parliamentary elections in September 2026. And in its place could come discontent - due to the difficult state of the Russian economy and the general decline in living standards. In such a scenario, a key question arises: how will Russian leaders - from Putin to local governors - manage to maintain order and their power if they can no longer use external threats to distract citizens from everyday difficulties?
The ruling United Russia party is still debating how to position itself in the upcoming elections: as the “party of victory,” which uses the war to strengthen patriotism, or as the “party of peace and development,” which heroically ended the fighting. However, this choice may not depend solely on electoral tactics. For Putin, any peace agreement – no matter how favorable – implies weakness. In his view, great powers do not negotiate. They impose.
The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School of New York University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
Bonus video:
