At a security turning point - time for alert and urgent response

Montenegro is at a moment that requires urgent action by all those interested in peace and its prosperous future. Although attempts are being made to maintain an image of political stability on the surface, a number of early warning security indicators point to a growing trend in security threats. We are in a complex situation that is difficult to define precisely. In short, between declarative stability and real security challenges that are piling up and not being resolved, and in the shadow of numerous, mostly unfulfilled, political promises.

As someone who has been following the dynamics of political, ethnic and security relations in the Balkans for decades, I feel a moral obligation and personal responsibility to publicly point out the seriousness of the situation. By analyzing the selected security indicators according to the early warning model, it is clear that the security situation is deeply disturbing for every well-intentioned person, patriot and patriot. What is particularly worrying and alarming is that these security signals, among other things, show that:

- The government acts fragmented and without a concrete strategy;

- The multiethnic and civic model of Montenegro is threatened with a tendency for its vulnerability to grow;

- Ethnic divisions are once again becoming the currency of political trade;

- The security sector, and not only it, is susceptible to political influences and insufficiently prepared for the complex threats it faces due to numerous problems such as lack of integrity, maturity, capacity...

What is of particular concern and must be considered in correlation with the aforementioned signals are external influences and interests, but also the worrying emergence of a new factor - a high frequency of fires, even in tourist areas.

They are destroying the country's reputation as a safe and attractive destination, which, along with the high crime rate, not only has a negative impact on the economy and financial losses, but also has a long-term impact on the erosion of trust among tourists and potential investors. Unfortunately, there are also human casualties.

A particular question that requires a quick answer is whether these are accidental fires or are they organized, aimed at collapsing revenues, spreading distrust in the system and further destabilizing society. We do not have the answer to that yet - it is early, but a serious state must not wait for final confirmation to react. It is necessary, in parallel with physically extinguishing the fire and waiting for rain, to conduct activities in this direction, with full publicity and transparency.

It is urgently necessary to check/renew the previously achieved social consensus around the civic and multiethnic model of the state. It is necessary to create a strategy for the protection of tourism, as a critical and easily endangered economic sector. Much more needs to be done immediately/urgently in the short, medium and long term. Concretely, clearly and transparently and without a lot of fuss.

Montenegro still has a chance to turn this situation into a test of its resilience, and not the beginning of a spiral of destabilization. Therefore, rapid, coordinated and excellent action is needed from all those interested in a peaceful and stable society without political calculations. Ignoring the current situation and security signals would mean consciously giving up a stable and secure future for our children, for all of us who live in Montenegro, and for Montenegro itself, regardless of nationality or religious affiliation.

The author is a researcher and expert on security issues in the Balkans.