US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have something in common: neither can be trusted. Trump openly contradicts himself, breaks promises made even to his most loyal supporters, and criticizes anyone who calls him a hypocrite. Putin, on the other hand, claims to want one thing, and then, by invoking vague “nuances” and unspoken conditions, sabotages those goals, revealing his true (usually sinister) intentions. So when the two leaders meet in Alaska to discuss a possible end to the war in Ukraine, Ukrainians can count on only one thing for sure: their demands will fade into the background, giving way to the egos and manipulations of these two men.
It is obvious that neither the European Union nor Ukraine are expected at this summit, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seems to be holding out hope that he will be able to influence it. As a result, the Ukrainian leadership is left with few options for protecting its country's interests. All it can realistically do is repeat: Ukraine will not give up territory in exchange for a ceasefire.
Russia is demanding that Ukraine completely withdraw its troops from the Donbas region (about 88% of its territory is currently occupied by Russia) as a precondition for a ceasefire, and that alone could be enough to deadlock the talks. But for now, Putin seems to expect that he can get something (Donbas itself, as well as Ukraine’s abandonment of its principles) for not much in return (a ceasefire, which he could potentially violate).
For now, that “something” may be enough for Putin, even if it comes at a high price. He, of course, still has expansionist plans in Ukraine and continues to claim that the war enjoys broad public support. According to official polls, ordinary Russians are satisfied: this year the “happiness index” has risen to 7,3 points out of a possible 10. But the harsh truth, which Putin knows well, is that most Russians are impatiently awaiting the end of the conflict, in which, according to the most conservative estimates, 120.000 soldiers have been killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. As for their “happy” mood, it may have something to do with the growth in consumption of antidepressants, whose sales in 2024 increased by 16,8% (compared to the previous year).
While public figures like former President Dmitry Medvedev engage in anti-Western propaganda and rattle off nuclear weapons, ordinary Russians show far more enthusiasm when they have the opportunity to engage with the outside world than when it comes to Kremlin “patriotism.” The Russian McDonald’s replacement on Moscow’s Pushkin Square (“Delicious and Full”) failed to attract the same crowds as the original restaurant, which closed in 2022, until it held a special event in July dedicated to the Japanese cartoon character Hello Kitty.
This is not happiness, and even less patriotism. Russians are facing years of isolation, repression, human losses, and worsening economic problems. With inflation running at 10%, they are barely able to cover the costs of basic goods and services (food, utilities, medicine, gas). The state of the budget is no better: the deficit has already exceeded the target for this year, partly explained by a drop in revenues from oil and gas sales of almost 30%.
Therefore, Putin, who needs to maintain the support of the Russian elite, should have many incentives to negotiate a peace agreement. Yes, Russia is not a normal state, and its leadership often behaves irrationally. An example of this is the war in Ukraine: Putin seriously overestimated the capabilities of the Russian military (he calculated that he would be able to declare victory in just a few days) and ignored the repeated warnings of former US President Joe Biden that the invasion would be met with a "strong and coordinated economic response."
And Russian leaders have - sometimes - known to bow to the will of society. Nikita Khrushchev could have followed in the footsteps of his predecessor, Joseph Stalin, and instituted an iron-fisted dictatorship. But he, on the contrary, responded to the desire of society to end mass repressions and implemented de-Stalinization. Mikhail Gorbachev's policies of perestroika and glasnost were also a response to the demands of society.
Putin has another strong reason to reach a deal as soon as possible: Donald Trump. Trump is driven by a desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize and to appease his noisy, nationalist voters, who are largely opposed to interference in foreign affairs. To that end, he is putting considerable pressure on Putin, including threats to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Yet in many ways Trump is also a dream come true for the Kremlin. Trump likes Putin and wants to make deals with him. Trump also dislikes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and shows no particular loyalty to Ukraine. However, this does not mean that Russia will not have to pay dearly for the agreement. The least Putin will have to accept is a ceasefire, followed by a “mutual exchange of territory” with security guarantees for Ukraine (as European officials propose). In any case, an agreement would require Putin to give up Ukraine’s firm inclusion in Russia’s sphere of influence and allow it to continue deepening ties with Europe.
In the 1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan held a series of fateful summits that created the conditions for the end of the Cold War. Putin and Trump's meeting in Alaska could be equally historic, but only if Putin admits to Russia that he will have to pay dearly to extricate himself from the quagmire he created.
The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School of New York University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
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