Trump's illusion about the Nobel Prize

It's not unusual for celebrities, especially ambitious men, to launch campaigns to win the Nobel Prize. Scientists, economists, even poets do it. But the world has never seen a campaign as brazen and unconvincing as Donald Trump's, claiming the Nobel Peace Prize.

The Nobel Peace Prize is the most prestigious global award for restoring or strengthening peace. Its laureates are chosen by a committee of distinguished Norwegians, whose composition is approved by the Norwegian parliament. It is hard to imagine that they would follow Trump and believe that he deserves to be elected.

Here is just one reason: Trump, at every opportunity, humiliates and betrays Europe, of which Norway is a part. He has repeatedly threatened to "take over" Greenland - an autonomous territory within Denmark, which is Norway's neighbor. His obsession is also the weakening of NATO (in which, again, Norway participates). Trump admires the authoritarian leader responsible for the largest land war in Europe since World War II, while showing open and undisguised contempt for the president of the defending country.

Trump seems to have a particular penchant for defending authoritarian leaders. He recently imposed steep tariffs on Brazil, seeking to punish the country for trying to hold former President Jair Bolsonaro accountable for instigating a failed (and Trump-inspired) coup in 2022. He is a staunch supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even as he steps up his brutal assault on Gaza, putting the final nail in the coffin of the Oslo Accords—Norway’s greatest diplomatic achievement in the past half-century.

Although the Oslo Accords did not directly envisage the establishment of a future Palestinian state alongside Israel, they did lay the foundations for a two-state solution: Palestinian institutions with self-government were created in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. And now, in addition to destroying Gaza and starving its population, Israel is approving a new settlement project in the West Bank, effectively blocking the possibility of a Palestinian state. Trump, however, is not only defending Netanyahu's actions, but also punishing his critics, including Norway itself.

Within America, Trump’s behavior demonstrates an equal contempt for dialogue and reconciliation. During his first term, he reportedly asked General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, whether soldiers he had called to Washington could shoot protesters in the legs. And now he is sending National Guard units into American cities where no one is looking for them and where no one is looking forward to them. In addition, Trump is ordering the arrest and deportation of asylum seekers, legal immigrants, and even U.S. citizens (including children), without following due process.

Yes, in Trump's world, where accountability is declared a "witch hunt," where facts are dismissed as fabrications, and lies are a constant, literally anything can happen. We are already seeing one world leader after another begin to cower before Trump and capitulate to his threats. In addition, he has already been nominated for the coveted Nobel Prize. This has been done by Pakistan - a country that is hardly a beacon of peace - and Cambodia, ruled by another authoritarian leader that Trump otherwise admires.

Yet the Nobel Committee was not fooled by even more grotesque peacemaking claims than those made by Trump. In 1939, twelve members of the Swedish parliament nominated then-British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in negotiating the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler the year before. In the end, the Nobel Committee decided not to award the prize that year.

It was a shrewd decision: Chamberlain's agreement gave the Nazi regime the green light to annex the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia and only further emboldened Hitler, who soon launched a blitzkrieg against other democratic countries in Europe. Ironically, Trump believes his best chance for a Nobel Peace Prize is tied to a Munich-style "peace" agreement that would force Ukraine to cede a piece of its sovereign territory to Russia - and Russia, of course, is unlikely to be satisfied until it has completely subjugated its neighbor.

Unlike Trump, the Nobel committee is likely to side with opponents of authoritarianism, not its supporters. In 2010, the peace prize was awarded to imprisoned Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo for his "long and nonviolent struggle for basic human rights in China." Chinese authorities condemned the decision, and relations between China and Norway were long strained, but the Nobel committee remained true to its principles. Awarding the Nobel Prize to Trump for inciting the destruction of Ukraine would send the opposite signal: it would potentially give Chinese President Xi Jinping additional confidence to invade Taiwan.

Why would Trump even want the Nobel Peace Prize if he so openly despises the principles (and hard work) of peacemaking? The most likely answer is because Barack Obama has the prize. When it comes to America's first black president, Trump's pettiness and malice know no bounds - from spreading the lie that Obama was born outside the US to accusing him of treason. But Obama is a Nobel laureate, and Trump is not, and that is becoming unbearable for him.

It is also not entirely clear why Obama was awarded the prize. He received it in 2009, just a few months into his presidency, when the president's only real achievement was to offer hope through highly stylized speeches. The award was probably given primarily because Obama was the polar opposite of his predecessor, George W. Bush, who invaded Iraq in 2003 on the false claim that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.

But if the Nobel Peace Prize for Obama was premature, the prize for Trump would be a parody. And if he somehow managed to win it, the Nobel Prize would turn into a joke.

The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School of New York University

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)