Russian drones have struck NATO countries before. One, allegedly destined for Ukraine, landed in a field in Poland last month. But what happened on the morning of September 10th is the most serious violation of NATO territory since the alliance was founded in 1949. At least 19 drones were launched, mostly from Belarus, a vassal state where Russian troops operate freely. They ended up deep in Polish airspace, where some were shot down. Others crashed, fortunately without any casualties.
Russia claims the drones were diverted because they were confused by electronic jamming. Military experts say that is unlikely, but even if true, it shows Russia acting with provocative recklessness. It is far more likely that Russia was deliberately testing Poland, and NATO, for weaknesses, both military and political, with precisely the kind of ambiguity and deniability that the Kremlin relishes. The alliance, and the US president in particular, now faces a moment of truth. If the answer is not immediate and unequivocal, weakness is precisely what Russia will assume.
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO has welcomed Finland and Sweden into its ranks and set a new military spending target of 3,5% of GDP. But it has also tolerated abuses for years: cutting submarine cables; violating air and sea space; assassinations and sabotage. Drones in Polish skies are the Kremlin’s latest test. Too often, Western officials have sought to avoid “escalation.” But now European citizens may fear that their borders are not secure. And the escalation has already arrived – from Moscow. If NATO shows timidity, the risk of entering a larger war “by sleepwalking” will only grow.
So far, the signals have been mixed. European leaders have sounded suitably indignant. President Donald Trump has sounded confused. “What now, Russia violating Polish airspace with drones? Here we go!” he said on social media. This is lame. NATO should announce that all incursions into Poland and other frontline states will be intercepted, ending its practice of minimizing them. It should deploy more aircraft to air surveillance missions over the Baltics and Poland, and relocate air defense systems, provided that this does not weaken Ukraine. NATO should also establish proactive defenses, shooting down drones and missiles inside Ukrainian and perhaps Belarusian airspace if they are directed at NATO territory, similar to what Israel and its partners did last year against Iranian drones. And NATO should strengthen Ukraine’s ability to strike drone factories deep inside Russia. This will involve the transfer of intelligence, components and, if necessary, long-range systems.
Much of this will require more backbone than Trump. Although he promised to end the war in Ukraine in a day, he has allowed Vladimir Putin to drag him by the nose. He insisted on a ceasefire, but then abandoned the idea; he threatened tough sanctions on Russia, but did not impose them; he invited Putin to sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but soon dropped that idea. Trump claims to hate bloodshed, but he has remained passive as Putin has stepped up his drone attacks on Ukraine. Putin’s response to Trump’s peace initiative is 800 drones every night.
Joe Biden has promised that America will defend “every inch” of NATO territory. Trump has contemplated abandoning allies who don’t “pay their bills.” His ambiguity about America’s position is a gift to the Kremlin, which seeks to sow doubt about American resolve. It also emboldens others, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose September 9th incursion into Qatar made a fool of Trump, undermining his efforts to end the war in Gaza.
Trump’s task is simple. He must find the words that have long eluded him and declare that America will honor its NATO treaty obligations and defend its allies. Anything less than that will invite further aggression, not just from Russia but from other autocrats. Allies in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East will draw their own conclusions. The invasion of Poland is a warning. If Russia can violate NATO borders with impunity, it will try again, even more brazenly and dangerously.
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