As a teenager growing up in Istanbul, I was fortunate to be part of a generation that had democratic role models around. European countries like Britain, France, Germany, and Sweden fueled our aspirations for prosperity and democracy, giving us hope for the future of our own imperfect political order. The experiences of these countries showed us that economic growth, social justice, and political freedom are not only compatible but also mutually reinforcing.
Where can today's youth find similar, inspiring role models? Liberal democracy once seemed destined to become the wave of the future. But today, democratic backsliding has become a global phenomenon, and Donald Trump's America is only the most striking and dramatic example.
Since the 2010s, “electoral autocracies” (that is, regimes that hold periodic elections but under conditions of constant repression) have become the dominant form of government around the world. Liberal democracies now have almost 220 million fewer people than in 2012. “Electoral democracies” – the form of regime that paves the way for liberal democracy – have also lost ground: they now have 1,2 billion fewer people than in 2012. They have been replaced by electoral autocracies, or simply autocracies, which now rule over 5,8 billion people (2,4 billion more than in 2012).
Europe’s role as a beacon of democracy is no longer so bright. The European Union played a key role in strengthening democracy in Eastern European countries during their transition from socialism: the Czech Republic and Estonia now occupy leading positions in the world’s rankings of liberal democracies. But many other countries (notably Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia) have suffered significant setbacks, and the EU has proven powerless to address them. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, and about two dozen other authoritarian leaders, traveled to Beijing to help Chinese President Xi Jinping demonstrate China’s military might.
Leading European countries can rightly emphasize that their democracy is not as damaged as America's. But Europe is showing neither economic strength nor political cohesion. Its self-confidence is clearly at rock bottom, as evidenced by the European Union's concessions in the face of Trump's tariff threats.
European leaders hoped that integration would increase their region’s power and influence on the global stage. Instead, the EU seems trapped in a perpetual state of transition that produces paralysis. Its institutions and processes prevent individual countries from taking bold action on their own, while lacking the capacity to develop and implement a shared vision.
If democratic Europe lacks the capacity to exert influence beyond its borders, then those with power on the global stage have ceased to be role models. Few expected America to be capable of such a dramatic turn toward authoritarianism, but Trump has turned the country into a pariah almost overnight. His actions have made it easier for China to present itself as the responsible “adult in the room,” and Xi Jinping is happy to talk about “sovereign equality,” “the rule of international law,” and “multilateralism.”
There should be no doubt about the nature of the Chinese regime. China's economic achievements are no reason to emulate its policies. China remains a highly authoritarian country, a country where minorities are suppressed and political opposition is strictly prohibited.
We must look for bright spots of democracy in unexpected places. Brazil and South Africa, for example, two middle-income countries, share a rare distinction: they were recently on the brink of authoritarianism but emerged unscathed.
South Africa experienced authoritarian populism and widespread corruption during the presidency of Jacob Zuma from 2009 to 2018; Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept his electoral defeat and orchestrated a military coup (and the assassination of his opponent) in 2022. Yet both were succeeded by leaders with solid democratic records: Cyril Ramaphosa in South Africa and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
What makes these successes remarkable? They have been achieved in conditions that political scientists consider particularly inhospitable to democracy. South Africa and Brazil are not only characterized by deep ethnic divisions. The two countries have some of the highest levels of inequality in the world. Since Aristotle, philosophers have argued that the absence of a large gap between rich and poor is a prerequisite for stable democracy. The experiences of Brazil and South Africa paint a more complex picture, which is encouraging for democracy advocates.
There is good news in other countries. Last year, when South Korean President Jun Suk-jeol declared a state of emergency for the first time since 1980, democratic forces and parliament resisted. Within weeks, Jun was removed from office.
Chile also managed to maintain a stable democracy after the end of the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990).
Among the most successful democracies outside Europe are small countries that remain under the radar in discussions of democratic decline. Taiwan, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Mauritius and Botswana all score highly on the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index (the latter two are particularly notable in Africa for the longevity of their democratic rule).
Perhaps we should pin our hopes on these unlikely examples to keep the flame of democracy alive. Like everything else, democracy needs role models. While traditional examples have lost their relevance, there are still countries in which advocates of democracy can find inspiration.
The author is a professor of international political economy at Harvard University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (N. R.)
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