Past wars in the Middle East have not only brought immense human suffering, but have also created new paths to peace. The same is true of the war in and around Gaza. Israel and the United States have significantly, and perhaps decisively, weakened the so-called Axis of Resistance—led, financed, and armed by Iran—and its nuclear program. The leaders of Hezbollah (in Lebanon) and Hamas (in Gaza) have been eliminated, and the Assad regime in Syria has been overthrown. The Middle East is a different place now, and Iran and its Axis of Resistance are among the biggest losers.
The war in Gaza is over, at least for now. All living hostages held by Hamas since October 7, 2023, have returned to Israel. Although Gaza is almost completely destroyed, the killing has stopped for now. Given the scale of the humanitarian tragedy, that in itself is a major achievement. This was achieved by US President Donald Trump and his negotiators.
But the hard part of the journey, the project of establishing what Trump calls “eternal” peace, is yet to come. The situation requires bold political decisions on all sides – not just rhetorical gestures, but real changes on the ground – and they must come quickly. A practical plan must be agreed upon if peace in the Middle East, or even conflict management, is to have any chance.
Peace will only come if two peoples who claim the same land are willing to reconcile. Is there a majority for that in Israel, or on the Palestinian side? Can Trump keep both sides on course, and will the US have the stamina to see it through? Without a commitment by all sides to a permanent cessation of violence and a return to mutual recognition of their right to exist - in other words, a return to the Oslo Accords - there can be no peace. Is that possible with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has rejected the two-state solution?
What is needed now is a political process with a timeline and agreed steps. Without that, there is no real prospect of peace, and without peace, there will be little willingness on the part of the international community to finance the reconstruction of Gaza. And that reconstruction cannot be delayed!
What would happen to two million Palestinians in Gaza, without housing, without jobs for the very young population, without education, without a health system? The answer is both simple and depressing: it would be a perfect breeding ground for radical Islamists like Hamas or similar terrorist groups that are the opposite of peace.
Who will govern and administer Gaza? Who will provide security there and disarm Hamas? Who, on the Palestinian side, is willing and able to transform the fiction of a Palestinian state into reality, into a peaceful and secure neighbor of Israel? And how demilitarized would such a state have to be? Without such a credible perspective of creating a Palestinian state, it is unlikely that Arab states will materially and politically commit to a peace solution, even though the war in Gaza has shown that an unresolved Palestinian issue can have threatening long-term consequences for them as well.
And Israel? Is it ready to agree to the partition of the historic mandated territory of Palestine - including the West Bank and Gaza?
What about the extremely difficult issue of Jerusalem and the even more complicated issue of the Temple Mount? Precisely because this region, and Jerusalem in particular, has always been associated with three religions - Judaism, Christianity and Islam - they also play a major, if not dominant, role in the political negotiations and the motives of the actors involved. Especially towards the end of possible peace negotiations, religious messages and promises from the highest authorities (and how they are interpreted) will be crucial.
If Trump really means what he says, he has taken on a huge burden. He campaigned on a promise to end America's role as the world's policeman, and now he faces what is probably the most difficult challenge in modern international politics. The United States, with its immense power, is the only power with a chance of success. But does Trump have the stamina for this task? Failure would plunge the Middle East into even deeper turmoil. Europe, as a neighbor to the region, should always keep this in mind.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005; he led the German Green Party for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
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