The geopolitical significance of historical precedent

Each generation believes it is living in an unprecedented era with unique challenges. But again and again, the same tendencies and motives either weaken and even destroy civilizations, or strengthen them, allowing them to flourish. To learn from the past, we must recognize its symmetry and resonance.

The rise and fall of powers over the centuries, for example, boils down to a few basic principles. The most important of these is this: if a dominant power faces two rivals, the rival that avoids conflict with the dominant power usually emerges victorious.

By the end of the 18th century, Great Britain had overtaken the Netherlands (the dominant power at the time). France, another rival of the Netherlands, had fought wars with them but never became a superpower. By the early 20th century, America had overtaken Britain, largely due to that country's wars with another rival, Germany.

The second lesson is: Empires collapse when they can no longer afford the costs of securing their internal territories and trade routes. Spain's golden age ended when it could no longer afford the military expenditures to defend its colonies. The British Empire relied on naval supremacy, which it failed to maintain. The USSR collapsed because it confused size with excess armaments.

Lesson Three: Even if a civilization is moving toward success, it can collapse under the weight of unforced errors. At the beginning of the 20th century, for example, the West seemed destined for prosperity—technological progress was accelerating (electrification, automobiles, telephones, radio, air travel), and the vicious cycle of poverty and war seemed to be broken.

Global trade flourished (especially between Britain and Germany), democracy advanced (even in Russia, where the 1905 revolution ushered in a new era of freedom), and European rulers were on good terms—George V was a cousin of Wilhelm II and Nicholas II (they were second cousins). By 1908, an institutional architecture for resolving global conflicts had even been developed.

But World War I ended this golden age. Inventions intended to liberate humanity were transformed into weapons of destruction, and the illusion of progress vanished in the trenches. For decades, Europe writhed in the throes of war and hatred, unbearable humiliation and barbaric revenge. Despite the certainty that this time would be different, the continent was engulfed in flames.

Today, the world is experiencing something similar - we should be on the threshold of a prosperous future. Never before has humanity's potential been so vast. The transition to clean energy could end the era of fossil fuels. Scientific breakthroughs have the potential to radically change our lives: cure previously incurable diseases; create virtually unlimited sources of clean energy; free people from the most difficult jobs; and much more.

Many countries understand the importance of protecting the planet and fighting climate change. Forests are regenerating on millions of hectares, from Kivu to the Amazon. The High Seas Treaty aims to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030. Banks have begun to factor biodiversity into their balance sheets. GDP is gradually giving way to other indicators that assess health, equality and well-being. The voices of young people around the world are being heard, women have taken leadership positions, and societies, aware of the common challenges they face, are beginning to engage in dialogue.

Yet now, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the worst-case scenario is unfolding. Authoritarianism is spreading, undermining even the most credible democracies. If we are not careful, artificial intelligence could destroy billions of jobs, become a new weapon, and weaken cognitive abilities. Environmental degradation continues, and the climate crisis is being exacerbated by the millions of tons of greenhouse gases that continue to be emitted into the atmosphere. Rising sea levels, drying rivers, and crop failures are forcing millions of people to migrate. Wars are multiplying around the world, and conflicts over food and water will only intensify.

In most democracies, governments are paralyzed and delaying necessary reforms until the next election. Globalization is under attack, and fears of the “other,” a nostalgia for a purity that never existed, and a disdain for knowledge have resurfaced. The result is division, alienation, and distrust—the very conditions in which populism thrives. Collective wisdom is giving way to individual rage, just as it did in the early 20th century.

Even more alarming (and unprecedented) is that we face shared challenges - climate change, poverty, the risk of epidemics and the misuse of technology (especially AI). All of this affects humanity as a whole. By spending time in front of screens and video games (and still obsessed with national rivalries), we forget to consider the global future and allow powerful national lobbies to dominate policymaking. This is how civilizations fail. This is how human civilization could fail.

To prevent such an outcome, we must not forget the lessons of the past. We must understand that it is time to think and solve common challenges as a species. We must rely on global cooperation, not the geopolitical egoism of nation states. The interests of future generations must come first, and that means a new emphasis on altruism. We may one day look back on 2025 as the year when humanity could have taken a turn for the worse, but instead - for the first time in many centuries - we chose life.

The author is a French economist, political theorist, writer and philosopher; he is the founder of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; he was a special advisor to French President F. Mitterrand

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)