The "28-point plan for peace in Ukraine" proposed by the US is not intended for Ukraine. It is not even intended for Russia, although it is drawn up according to Russian templates. No, this offer is useful only to one person - US President Donald Trump.
Like the Trump administration’s Gaza peace plan, the Ukraine framework aims to deliver a quick foreign policy “win.” For a president who loves nothing more than to portray himself as a peacemaker, this is an opportunity not only to take credit for the ceasefire but also to position himself as a key figure in its implementation. Just as the Gaza ceasefire (which Israel has repeatedly violated) is overseen by Trump’s “Peace Committee,” peace in Ukraine would be “monitored and guaranteed” by a “Peace Council,” with Trump at the helm.
This does not mean, however, that Trump is committed to ensuring lasting peace. The plan is sparse on detail, virtually guaranteeing that hostilities will flare up again. But that is the future - an area in which Trump has little interest. All it means to him is distracting American voters from his association with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
As expected, the peace plan is strongly pro-Russian and meets many of the demands that Russian President Vladimir Putin has set as a condition for ending the war: Crimea, as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, become Russian territories; Ukraine will withdraw troops from the part of Donetsk region it currently controls; Ukraine will be barred from NATO membership. Meanwhile, Russia will be "reintegrated" into the world economy.
However, Trump's plan is hardly Putin's dream come true. First of all, he requires Russia to legally consolidate its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine, as well as to recognize Ukraine's right to join the European Union. In addition, $100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in the reconstruction of Ukraine under the leadership of the United States, with America receiving 50% of the profits.
Although sanctions against Russia will be "gradually" lifted, that process depends entirely on Trump, and the country's oil revenues are unlikely to recover in the near future. Trump is serious about making the United States the world's leading oil and gas trader, so Russia will need to coordinate its actions with America to boost its isolated economy.
For now, Putin welcomes the American plan as a basis for further consideration, but he has made it clear that he sees the "current dynamics" of the war as favorable to Russia, and that a continuation of the conflict will be inevitable if Ukraine does not accept his terms. Putin knows that Russia, if necessary, can fight for several more years. Like his hero Joseph Stalin, he is completely normal for ordinary Russians to suffer in the service of the state's rulers.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has few good options. Although the Trump administration is working with Ukrainian officials to “clarify” the plan (including priorities such as security guarantees and political sovereignty), Ukraine has few negotiating leverage. It remains completely dependent on the West for financing and arming its defense; the situation on the front is currently favorable to Russia; Ukraine faces an acute shortage of personnel. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently embroiled in a high-level corruption scandal.
Ukraine's struggle is portrayed by many, including Zelensky, as a defense of the values of democracy and international law - and rightly so. Yet Ukraine has long struggled with corruption. Some progress was made on this front after the Maidan Revolution of 2014, but the war has opened up new opportunities for corruption, especially in Zelensky's immediate circle.
Independent anti-corruption agencies — the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) — began investigating many members of this elite club in July, when Zelensky pushed through a law limiting the powers of these agencies. He probably thought that Ukrainians and their European allies would be too focused on the war to pay attention. But he was wrong. The public discontent was so strong that the authorities had no choice but to change course.
Now NABU and SAP have uncovered a embezzlement scheme in the state-owned consortium "Energoatom", which operates Ukrainian nuclear power plants. It was headed by Zelensky's former business partner - Timur Mindich. A number of high-ranking officials are involved in the affair, including the already dismissed Minister of Justice German Galushchenko, former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov and the current Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov. Zelensky claims that he had no knowledge of this scheme.
When the scandal broke, some officials in Europe called for greater transparency in the allocation of funds in Ukraine. For now, however, EU leaders have refrained from harshly condemning Zelensky, fearing that the revelations could be used to impose unacceptable peace terms on Ukrainians at a time when formal democratic procedures in the country have been suspended due to a state of war. The European Union has decided to focus on preparing a counterproposal to Trump’s plan, which does not rule out Ukraine’s NATO membership and postpones talks on a territorial swap until a ceasefire is reached.
Conspiracy theorists are now working overtime. Although German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave the impression that Trump's peace plan surprised him, it turns out that he knew about it a month before it was announced. This fact is now being used to suggest that the corruption revelations are part of a European conspiracy aimed at further strengthening Zelensky's dependence on the European Union. There is also contradictory information about Umerov's influence on the American proposal, including a clause on "full amnesty" for all sides for their "actions during the war."
Zelensky may be able to convince European leaders to focus on the “real enemy” – Russia. But new revelations about corruption will only weaken his position, both in Ukraine, where protests are already growing, and in negotiations with the US. In the end, ordinary Ukrainians will pay the price. Putin will achieve significant successes, although perhaps not all that he wanted, while Trump will begin to claim that he – and he alone – ended this terrible war of attrition.
The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School of New York University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
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