The joint action of Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and her team, together with the engagement of Minister for European Affairs Maida Gorčević, who mobilized Montenegro's top officials in negotiations with the French side, contributed decisively to opening the door to closing Chapters 11 and 13 this week in Montenegro's negotiation process with the EU.
"There are only two things left that Podgorica needs to clarify from Chapter 11 on agriculture and rural development, as well as one contentious issue from Chapter 13 on fisheries. Commissioner Kos and Minister Gorčević have made a crucial contribution to clearing the way for an agreement with France," says a diplomatic source well-versed in Montenegro's negotiation process with the EU.
Our contact claims that the obstacles to the EU Council's decision to form a Working Group for drafting Montenegro's Accession Treaty with the EU have also been removed: "The Netherlands, which conditioned the lifting of its reservation on the number of opened chapters, confirmed to representatives of the European Commission that it will honor the agreement and will not block the decision to form a Working Group if five chapters are opened in December."
According to our information, the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, as well as the Danish EU Presidency, are insisting that the conclusions of the European Council (the EU heads of state and government) include a conclusion that would welcome the formation of a Working Group for drafting the Accession Treaty with Montenegro. This is a kind of pressure on EU member states that have reservations about this decision, since the conditio sine qua non for the adoption of this conclusion is that the EU makes a decision to form a Working Group.
This hint is much more important than the announcement that France could approve the opening of all five chapters, including the two controversial ones. A possible delay of a few months in closing two chapters would not jeopardize the dynamics and deadlines for closing negotiations and signing the Accession Treaty of Montenegro with the EU. On the other hand, postponing the start of work on writing the Accession Treaty could cause serious delays and, consequently, entering a zone of uncertainty about the date of Montenegro's entry into the EU.
If the goal is to complete the negotiations by the end of 2026 or in the first half of 2027 and for Montenegro to enter the EU by 2028 or in the first half of 2029, then it is necessary for the Working Group for the drafting of the Accession Treaty to begin work immediately.
Otherwise, if we wait for all chapters to be closed, as some countries are proposing, then Montenegro's entry into the EU would be delayed. In the best case scenario, it would enter in 2030, and possibly later.
At the time of writing, not everything has been decided, but after the shock on Friday due to Paris's blockade of the closure of the two aforementioned chapters, over the weekend the clouds on Montenegro's European horizon began to disperse.
"France did not lower the ramp on Friday due to Serbia's lobbying. This is due to internal reasons in France and certain turmoil within the ruling coalition, as well as on the Elysee Palace - Matignon - Quai d'Orsay line. Also, to be completely honest, Podgorica underestimated or misjudged certain signals coming from Paris and warning about what happened last week," another source from the EU body in Brussels told "Vijesti".
In Paris, they are strategizing about EU enlargement in light of the upcoming French elections in 2027. A current of opinion has emerged - and it is potentially dangerous for Montenegro's ambitions - that accelerating EU enlargement could help Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's National Rally in their election campaign, since the majority of French people do not support EU enlargement, and pave the way for them to seize power.
Podgorica would be just collateral damage in that story, because Montenegro's entry would not create any of the problems that make French citizens against enlargement, and which the National Rally is abusing. Montenegrin citizens would not flood France as Bulgarians and Romanians did after those countries joined the EU. French farmers would not suffer losses or be denied privileges with Montenegro's entry, as would be the case, for example, with Ukraine's entry, and Montenegrins do not bear the stamp of organized crime like Albanians.
THE EU WANTS A DEMOCRATIC SERBIA, AND THAT MEANS WITHOUT VUCIĆ
According to the words of the interlocutor of "Vijesti", there has been an unjustified uproar over Serbia's alleged influence or even lobbying: "The fact is that Belgrade has neither the strength nor the credibility to influence French decisions. We live in a world of fake news, numerous spins and manipulative narratives, and in Serbia they have obviously learned from the masters of propaganda. In Belgrade, they have used coincidences and half-truths to construct an image that does not correspond to reality, and that reality is that Vučić's Serbia has no influence in the EU. Moreover, the EU wants a democratic Serbia."
Incidentally, the coinage used in her statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after her meeting with the Serbian president last week, is being interpreted in Brussels diplomatic circles as a direct message that there will be no place for Serbia with Vučić in the EU. In other words, President Vučić and "democratic Serbia" in the same sentence are an oxymoron.
Just as former Montenegrin President Milo Đukanović ignored or underestimated the signals coming to him from Brussels and Washington that Montenegro would not join the EU if he remained at the helm of the state, so too Vučić now refuses to see the new reality, pushing propaganda that projects a “reality” tailored to his needs. The Serbian president desires tectonic changes in Europe and the world that would mask the debacle of his foreign policy and, above all, the compromise of the future of the citizens of Serbia.
To be honest, the French, together with Italy and Spain, with the assistance of the European Commission, have been quite vocal about opening a third cluster with Serbia. One could say that they have experienced firsthand that their initiative to move Belgrade forward in the European integration process has not yielded the desired results.
At one point, Paris even made it clear that the entire enlargement process could suffer consequences if the blockade of Serbia's European path, which has lasted for four years, continues, because Belgrade stubbornly refuses to impose sanctions on the Russian Federation. For the Nordic countries, the Baltic republics and Poland, this is the condition of all conditions for Serbia to get going. And this position is not new - it has been a constant since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In the EU decision-making process, when one or possibly two countries oppose a decision that requires consensus, such as in the case of enlargement, it is possible to seek a compromise with a good chance of reaching a favorable result. When three to five countries oppose the proposed solution, then it is usually difficult to reach an agreement, but it is not impossible. When more than five countries are against something in the EU bodies, then not only the vote but also the discussion is abandoned, because starting it would only produce negative effects.
That is why a compromise at the last minute is still possible regarding Montenegro - indeed, it is very certain - and regarding Serbia, the Danish EU presidency did not even try to open a debate, let alone a vote, given that eight member states were explicitly against opening a third cluster.
BEWARE OF CROATIA
Montenegrin leaders and negotiators with the European Union should learn the lesson of December well and draw lessons from France's behavior, namely how seemingly small or unimportant details can create major problems if not detected and resolved in a timely manner.
According to our information, the resolution of the disputed issues with Croatia has again entered a standstill phase and could move in an unwanted direction. Until a few weeks ago, everything seemed to be going according to plan. The non-paper that Croatia submitted to the European Commission raised optimism that bilateral problems could be resolved. There was even optimism that, in a relatively short period of time, Chapter 31, related to foreign policy, could be closed.
However, "Vijesti" sources in the EU warn that Montenegro should be very cautious towards Croatia. Namely, Zagreb has begun to see itself as a regional leader and strong enough to dictate even unjustified conditions and impose its agenda, not only in Bosnia and Herzegovina, on which it has been exclusively focused until now, but also in the former Yugoslavia.
In any case, Croatia is registering, to put it mildly, discouraging developments towards resolving the bilateral dispute with Montenegro. In this context, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's statement, in the presence of Plenković, that Montenegro should move to the next stage of approximation to EU membership, including the formation of a Working Group for drafting the Accession Treaty, takes on a specific significance.
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