The “Donro” Doctrine, Russian Chaos Theory, and Chinese Hegemony

The division of the world into blocs is back in fashion. Along with marking territories and spheres of interest, before the final confrontation between Washington and Beijing - which will happen in the not-so-distant future, but it is not inevitable that it will turn into a nuclear war - the three planetary powers, the USA, China and Russia, as well as regional powers such as Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have been tidying up or trying to tidy up their "backyards" for several years.

In the first year of his second term, Donald Trump has already issued orders to bomb Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela, brought Panama back under American influence by expelling China, and has repeatedly reiterated that Greenland will formally become part of the United States.

China is tightening its grip on Taiwan. Since propaganda is not producing the desired results in Formosa - the vast majority of Taiwanese, having learned from the experience of Hong Kong, do not want to end up under Beijing's rule - an invasion of Formosa is only a matter of time.

Russia has occupied a fifth of Ukraine and continues to bomb and destroy the former Soviet republic with the aim of returning it to its zone of interest and installing a puppet government in Kiev. At the same time, Russia is engaged in a fierce struggle with China and Turkey to expand its sphere of influence in Africa. The Russians have established themselves in the Sahel, the Turks in Libya and Somalia, and the Chinese everywhere else.

Turkey has de facto occupied the northwestern part of Syria and established a semi-puppet regime in Damascus, holds the western part of Libya under complete control, and has significantly expanded its influence in the former Turkic republics of the Soviet Union, from Azerbaijan to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Israel dealt a fatal blow to the so-called Iranian axis of resistance in the region and, by recognizing Somaliland, threw down the gauntlet of challenge to Turkey, which has been threatening Jerusalem for a long time.

Saudi Arabia is trying to take advantage of the reshuffle in the Middle East to emerge as a new regional power. The “graduation exam” for Riyadh is Yemen, where they have been unable to impose a regime of their choice for several years. First, they were prevented by Iran, and now the United Arab Emirates is doing so.

International law has become “Schrödinger’s cat”: when it needs to be “alive”, interested parties see it as such and wave it around; when it needs to be trampled on, it is declared, without apology, dead. In essence, a world in which Europe no longer has any specific weight, planetary and regional hegemons who do not hesitate to use weapons to achieve national goals are constructing a new world order based on force.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long used the 19th-century rhetoric of his predecessor Nicholas I: “Autocracy, Orthodoxy, patriotism.” Chinese dictator Xi Jinping has introduced a Spartan vocabulary along with a militaristic upbringing of younger generations instilled with nationalism, suprematism, and obedience to superiors. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Turkish President Erdogan is completely intoxicated with the idea of ​​restoring the Ottoman Empire. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is increasingly openly advocating Greater Israel, and Saudi Arabia and Iran dream of domination in the Islamic world.

In Europe, we have two opposing visions. The East, exposed to the Russian threat, is arming itself and preparing for war, while in the western part of the continent they do not want to wake up from the dream of the “end of history”. That is why they see a new neighbor, a foreigner who is speaking their language, as a threat more than a new realignment of forces on the planetary stage, which would necessarily return them to history.

DOCTRINE DONRO

The “Donro Doctrine” is a neologism derived from Trump’s name and President James Monroe’s “Monroe Doctrine,” which two centuries ago envisioned Washington’s hegemony over the entire American continent, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. Monroe’s motto was “America for the Americans,” with the clear goal of the United States being a continental “protector.”

Trump, using his dominant position in Washington, is imposing himself as “the new sheriff in town,” as his deputy, J.D. Vance, would say. In this context, there are calls for Canada to become the 51st US state, the desire to formalize de facto control over Greenland, the return of the Panama Canal to American control, the return of Venezuela to the American sphere of interest with the overthrow of Maduro from power, and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the American Gulf.

Globalization, in the American perspective, has never meant the delocalization of production and free trade on all meridians. Globalization for Americans means only one thing: control over waterways, because 90 percent of trade goods pass through them. All the moves of the Trump administration are aimed at strengthening its dominant position. Territorial claims to Greenland and Canada are a direct expression of the desire to bring the North Pole under control before navigation in the Arctic Ocean becomes possible throughout the year or for most of it.

In Europe, Trump forced NATO member states to increase defense spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product, which in turn means they will have to buy American weapons and take responsibility for controlling the Old Continent, allowing the Americans to concentrate on China.

RESTORATION OF THE CENTRAL EMPIRE

Xi Jinping's regime is rapidly militarizing Chinese society and preparing it for all the consequences of war. The Chinese president regularly tells young Chinese that they must get used to suffering, sacrifice, pain, and, above all, discipline.

The Chinese school system has introduced a requirement that all students, regardless of gender, must undergo military training, and wear a uniform. This is not about turning academic citizens into soldiers, but rather about instilling in them a system of values ​​such as obedience and respect for superiors, discipline, patriotism, and unquestioning obedience to authority, whether in civilian clothes or in uniform.

China's goal in the medium term is to round off its zone of interest and create the so-called "strategic stalemate", which was theorized by Mao Zedong as a period of equilibrium in which Beijing would be able to cope with pressure from Washington and use the gained time to catch up with the US in all key sectors.

In the eyes of President Xi Jinping, China must not repeat the mistakes of the USSR, especially in the economic field, because the collapse of the Soviet Union did not occur for political reasons, but for economic reasons. Another important lesson from the collapse of the USSR for China is geopolitical isolation. In this context, Beijing is spreading propaganda aimed at portraying the West in a process of involution, and the US as the main generator of this crisis. In parallel, China is promoting the idea of ​​a polycentric world.

The third lesson is not to allow the US to turn Russia against them, just as Washington used the rivalry between the USSR and Mao's China to break up the communist bloc. The fourth lesson concerns the arms race, that is, that China should avoid this type of competition with America at all costs, because it cannot emerge victorious from it. And the final lesson, which Xi Jinping insists on in justifying the centralization of power and the party's influence in every aspect of life, is the belief that the USSR collapsed because the Communist Party lost its strength and control over society, after which disintegration was inevitable.

RUSSIAN “CHAOS THEORY”

Russian President Putin's ideologues believe that the international chaos we find ourselves in is not an anomaly, but an inevitable reality in the transitional phase that follows the fall of the unipolar world and precedes the creation of a new, multipolar one, and consequently the formation of new centers of power, rules, and institutions.

The term “multilateralism” and the statement that the disintegration of the unipolar world is an irreversible process are present in all Russian strategic documents. The Russian “chaos theory” applied to geopolitics is based on five postulates: the old world cannot be restored; chaos, by definition, cannot be managed; the end of permanent alliances; universal rights and human freedoms are dead; military force is the guarantee of survival.

The creators of the new Russian ideology argue that Western efforts to maintain the liberal order are futile, and that the status quo cannot be maintained for long, which only leads to deeper destabilization. Western states will be forced to negotiate new mechanisms of international relations, not only with Russia, but with the rest of the planet.

According to Putin's analysts, the time of permanent alliances is irrevocably over. In the new world, everyone will act independently, no alliance will be binding, no obligation will be forced, no partner will be a friend or foe forever. Foreign policy will turn into an opportunistic game with changing geometries.

The only postulate in the new world, according to Moscow's chaos theorists, will be national interest, which will define the existing government. National interest will be the justification for any move by the government, both domestically and in foreign policy. The rejection of liberal universalism will be complete, as will all Western standards and values, from human freedoms to political rights. The use of repression is justified by national interests, as is the use of force against other states. Each state should create its own system of values ​​without reference to universal principles, political identity, or what Putin has already defined as a "civilization-state."

And finally, Russian spin doctors predict a world in which wars will be a regular occurrence, that is, inevitable in the phase of the formation of a new order. According to them, we will return to a modern version of the Westphalian order, in which sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states will be postulates. In this system, wars will be a common political instrument, and the militarization of society will be necessary, as well as the strengthening of the military industry and the defense system, because the stability and security of the nation will rest on them.