A year into his second term, Donald Trump has established himself as the most revolutionary US president in recent history. While “America First” once seemed like an isolationist stance (and not just in the eyes of Trump’s MAGA base), it is now clear that it embraces a Hobbesian worldview, in which the powerful United States takes whatever it wants from those it deems weak.
In the world this view describes, the United States is unlikely to engage in direct military conflict with “peer” powers like China, or with nuclear states like Russia and North Korea. America will compete with other superpowers for resources and advanced technologies, lest they become “super-powerful” relative to the United States. Trump will likely limit his interference in their “spheres of influence”—as long as they stay out of what he sees as the American sphere.
But Trump believes they don’t. China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat. China has invested billions in Brazil, included Colombia in its global “Belt and Road” initiative, and invested heavily in Argentina to produce lithium chloride, a key component for batteries. China has also replaced American soybean exporters by doubling its purchases from Brazil (to $50 billion), where it also sources iron ore. It has turned the Peruvian port of Cancay into the centerpiece of its physical logistics in the region. Its electronic trade with Latin America is set to grow by about 50% by 2025, while digital infrastructure is increasingly tied to China’s goals of data sovereignty, cybersecurity control, and expanding surveillance capabilities. As if that weren’t enough, China has also significantly expanded its military presence across the continent through arms sales, training programs, and strategic partnerships, particularly with Venezuela.
The view that China's presence in Latin America is a threat to the United States is based on an old idea. The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 effectively established American dominance over the Western Hemisphere, stating that any foreign intervention in the Americas would be considered an act of hostility. Since then, nearly a third of the nearly 400 American interventions worldwide have occurred in Latin America, where the United States has overthrown governments it deemed unfavorable to its interests, often using methods that international courts have later ruled illegal.
In 2013, President Barack Obama’s Secretary of State, John Kerry, declared that the “era of the Monroe Doctrine” was over: the US would treat Latin America as a partner, not a sphere of influence. But that stance has now been reversed: in its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), the Trump administration pledged to “reaffirm and implement” the Monroe Doctrine. This set the stage for the recent US attack on Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president, Nicolás Maduro.
Maduro is a dictator who stole the 2024 presidential election, devastated Venezuela’s economy, and grossly violated the human rights of his people. But the U.S. intervention had little to do with “liberating” Venezuela from Maduro’s “tyranny.” By that logic, the U.S. would have to remove many dictators around the world, but Trump is clearly more interested in threatening to annex Greenland.
In fact, Trump is not even particularly interested in regime change in Venezuela. Two opposition leaders, Edmundo Gonzalez and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, won elections, but the Trump administration has refused to allow either of them to take power. It seems to consider them too weak and too liberal to be effective henchmen. Instead, Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez—a person whose extensive experience in pandering to China and Russia could probably be transferred to the United States—has taken over as interim president.
Although the National Security Strategy does not specifically mention Venezuela, the document leaves no doubt about Trump’s intentions toward the country. The United States, it says, will not allow “competitors outside the hemisphere” to “deploy forces or other threatening capabilities, or to possess or control strategically vital assets in our hemisphere.” In other words, Trump wants to ensure that the United States, not its adversaries, controls Venezuela’s vast resources, starting with the world’s largest oil reserves.
Until now, about 80% of Venezuela's annual oil sales have gone to China. Buyers of the remaining 20%, which is sold at reduced prices, include Cuba, a thorn in the side of the US since 1959. A US takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry therefore offers multiple advantages at once: opportunities for US oil companies, depriving China of a key energy source, and an additional blow to the already hard-hit Cuban economy.
Trump would certainly enjoy becoming the American president who finally toppled the Cuban regime, not least because it would score him a lot of political points with the large Cuban community in the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has hinted that Trump might even take direct aim at Cuba. (Colombia’s leftist president, Gustavo Petro, has also been targeted by the Trump administration for his harsh criticism of U.S. interventions in Latin America.)
In addition to oil, Venezuela may possess significant reserves of key minerals, including rare earth elements, which are vital to a number of high-tech industries, including semiconductor manufacturing. Control over them would allow the US to undermine China's dominance over key mineral supply chains.
Trump’s obsession with seizing other people’s mineral wealth—which he sees as crucial to preserving American industrial hegemony—extends far beyond Venezuela. Last year, the U.S. forced Ukraine to sign a deal to share profits from future sales of its mineral and energy reserves, supposedly to compensate for American support for Ukrainian defense. Greenland is in Trump’s sights because it has the world’s largest untapped reserves of rare earth elements.
Trump claims that the US is demonstrating its strength in order to be “re-respected.” And many leaders are willing to participate in this farce, hoping to benefit from it. Argentina’s right-wing president, Javier Milley – who owed his victory in last year’s midterm elections to a $40 billion US bailout package – applauded the US attack on Venezuela, as did the leaders of Chile, Ecuador and Honduras. Europe’s far-right “patriotic” parties, which the NSS particularly praises, have also welcomed the move.
By now, however, it should be clear that Trump cannot be trusted. America’s European allies are finally facing this reality, as they consider the possibility of having to defend Greenland from the US. So it is with Machado, who dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump, hoping he would overthrow the Maduro regime and allow her to take power, and ended up marginalized. Fear, hatred, and distrust do not breed respect.
With the operation in Venezuela, Trump has sent an open invitation to China to invade Taiwan, while also justifying Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He has also laid the groundwork for more illegal US military actions in Latin America and around the world.
If the world is to prevent the emergence of a new era of Hobbesian international order, condemnation will not be enough. Great and rising powers - such as Germany, India and Japan - must work together to establish and enforce rules of conduct on the international stage.
The author is Vice President of the Toledo International Peace Center; he was the minister of foreign affairs of Israel
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2026. (translation: NR)
Bonus video:
