Russian patriotic bloggers and war correspondents — the group most supportive of the country’s “special military operation” in Ukraine — are currently outraged. The administration of US President Donald Trump has sent forces to invade Russia’s ally Venezuela, kidnapping its President Nicolas Maduro and seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker. Russia, they shout, should sink American ships, or even launch nuclear missiles at its enemies. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has not even issued an official statement about the event.
Of course, the Foreign Ministry has – without a shred of irony – condemned the US “armed aggression” against Venezuela as “an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state.” Moreover, Putin rarely reacts immediately to major events, preferring to watch them unfold and gauge his response accordingly. Such an approach can sometimes seem deliberate and confident, but in this case it can give the impression of weakness – or at least deep uncertainty.
Before the attack on Venezuela, Putin seemed fairly confident about Russia’s position in Ukraine. Trump had been promoting a “peace plan” that was ostensibly pro-Russian and had been putting heavy pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to withdraw Ukrainian forces from territory they controlled. Coupled with repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which had led to frequent power outages in the dead of winter, Putin was confident that Ukraine would soon be ready to accept his peace terms.
But recent moves by the Trump administration have called Putin’s assessment into question. The United States continues to insist that peace in Ukraine is a priority, and its recent pledge of security guarantees to Ukraine would not imply American boots on the ground—something Russia would strongly oppose. While the interception of the Russian tanker could be interpreted as an attempt to humiliate Putin, the Trump administration claims that it was actually a Venezuelan vessel that flew the Russian flag to avoid seizure, and that the two Russian crew members have been released.
Still, the Trump administration is undoubtedly unhappy with Russia's refusal to fully accept the peace plan outlined in November. Trump has now reportedly given the green light to long-delayed regulations that would impose tough new sanctions on Russia and countries that knowingly buy Russian oil or uranium, raising tariffs by up to 500%.
Putin certainly does not want to give the impression of weakness, and he also does not want to risk further straining relations with the United States. Hence his silence. But his willingness to endure pressure has its limits. The question now is whether the Trump administration will be persistent enough to determine where those limits lie.
Many Western observers believe that now is the time to further increase the pressure on Russia - not only through tougher sanctions, but also by delivering more weapons to Ukraine and striking at Russia's "shadow fleet", a network of oil tankers that use various deceptive tactics to evade Western sanctions. Zelensky has gone so far as to indirectly encourage Trump to apply his Venezuelan "model" not only to Russia, but also to Chechnya.
While the idea that Trump would send American forces into Russia is highly unrealistic, the apparent success of the operation in Venezuela has emboldened hawks in his inner circle. "We are a superpower," Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff, recently insisted, and "we will act like a superpower."
This bully mentality increases the likelihood that the United States will cross a line that Putin finds unacceptable—say, by mass-shooting Russian oil ships, trying to impose draconian peace terms on Russia, or fomenting unrest, as they are doing in Iran.
Putin has few options for retaliation against the United States. If the U.S. Navy wants to seize an oil tanker, the presence of Russian armed guards on board, or even the deployment of Russian warships nearby, will not prevent it. Russia’s only real trump card is its nuclear arsenal. And while Putin can always issue a nuclear ultimatum to Trump, he may not be taken seriously. Russian threats would carry more weight if they were made in conjunction with a military power like China, but China also has a host of other levers—including control of the global supply of rare earth elements—that it can use against the United States.
Yet Putin has already reached for the nuclear weapon. If he is pushed to the point where he feels his only option is to launch a nuclear attack, the United States will undoubtedly retaliate in kind. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the risk of an apocalyptic scenario will remain elevated.
As for Zelensky, he should be careful. Putin may not want to directly confront Trump, but after the US jailed Maduro, he may decide to show how Russia can do the same to its enemies - especially after the alleged drone attack on Putin's residence in the northern Novgorod region. Russian authorities claim that Ukraine attempted such an attack, which prompted Moscow to announce its readiness to retaliate and change its negotiating position regarding peace talks. Ukraine, however, has denied any involvement in the attack, calling the allegations an attempt by Russia to sabotage peace talks.
One thing is certain - Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure will continue, as will Putin's silence on Venezuela.
The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School of New York University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016. (translation: NR)
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