France has definitely lifted the curtain on the formation of the Working Group for the preparation of Montenegro's Accession Treaty with the EU, and the Cypriot EU presidency has confirmed that it will put a formal decision on the agenda at the first favorable moment, as confirmed to "Vijesti" by sources familiar with Podgorica's negotiation process with the EU. In any case, the Working Group should be completed and begin work before the Irish take over the EU presidency from the Cypriots. If the aforementioned dynamics are respected, Montenegro will be in a position to join the EU by the end of 2028.
Also, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić was made aware by several relevant addresses in the EU that it would be wise and opportune, especially if he wants to complete the work of negotiations with the EU by the end of the year, to reach at least some agreement in principle with the DPS on the drafting and voting of so-called European laws in the Parliament of Montenegro, diplomatic sources working on Montenegro's EU dossier told "Vijesti".
Prime Minister Spajić elegantly ignored the aforementioned advice from European partners throughout the previous year, but it is not said that he has not changed his position in the meantime, since it is necessary to have strong and broad support for the adoption of a series of laws, other decisions and elections from the European agenda in order to respect the planned pace of work in parliament and conclude negotiations by the end of the year. Also, the increasingly malign influence of the progressive regime in Belgrade should not be underestimated, just as the immunity of political leaders of the Serb faction in Montenegro to the particular interests of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić should not be overestimated.
The above does not mean that PES is being asked to change coalition partners and form a new ruling coalition. On the contrary, the opening of a political crisis or early elections before Montenegro closes all chapters with the EU would call into question the primary goal of Podgorica becoming an EU member by the end of 2028; moreover, it would become unattainable. The realization of the European agenda and the electoral calendar, given the given circumstances, fit perfectly and should not be called into question.
Our contacts in the EU also suggest that early elections, before the work is completed, would be additionally problematic because it would lead to a new fragmentation, rather than consolidation, of the political scene in Montenegro, with a rearrangement of the balance of existing forces. Namely, the more than certain entry into the political arena of President Jakov Milatović's new party would further complicate the already rather colorful balance of forces on the Montenegrin political stage.
Milatović's party will inevitably take a share of PES voters and, given the controversial relationship between the president and the prime minister, it would not be easy to create a new ruling coalition, i.e. negotiations would take a lot of time, and Montenegro does not have the luxury, at least not at this moment, of wasting time or going through a new unstable political phase. Plus, the parties of the former Democratic Front, given the results of the latest opinion polls, would have much greater appetites.
INFLUENCE OF THE VUCIĆ REGIME
It is still unclear what direction official Belgrade's future policy will take after the debacle of its foreign policy in the past year, that is, whether and to what extent it will try to cover up or relativize its failures and the unenviable position it finds itself in by creating problems in the region. In this sense, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and, to a lesser extent, Kosovo can be (mis)used.
The series of events in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the campaign being waged in the media under the control of the authorities in Belgrade, do not bode well. As is the old custom, whenever the progressive regime clashes with the results of its policies, corruption and kleptocratic state structure, it resorts to vulgar nationalism, stories about the threat to Serbs and the export of destabilization and problems.
Attempts to destabilize the ruling coalition in Podgorica through the synergistic actions of individual local politicians and the propaganda megaphones of the Vučić regime, as well as undermining the agreements reached in BiH to fulfill the conditions for the start of EU membership negotiations, are interpreted as negative signals in Brussels.
The leaders of the so-called pro-Serbian parties in Montenegro are faced with a simple choice: either they will opt for the interests of the citizens they represent or they will be puppets of the President of Serbia, whose only goal is to remain in power. In other words, Andrija Mandić is at a crossroads where he has to choose between the possibility of being one of the main actors in the successful story of Montenegro's entry into the EU and an episodic role in the implementation of the project of isolating Serbs and Serbia in the Balkans and in Europe.
European institutions emphasize that Mandić and his party have not been a hindrance to the implementation of the European agenda so far and, consequently, have not been an obstacle on the path to the EU. The condition for Montenegro to maintain a high chance of closing all chapters by the end of the year is that Mandić continues to be cooperative in the implementation of the European agenda, whether in his role as President of the Assembly or, more generally, the work of his party in parliament and on the ground.
The European Union has invested a lot of energy in helping local stakeholders adopt two necessary laws and elect a chief negotiator for BiH with the EU, which are conditions for the start of Sarajevo's negotiations with Brussels.
Everything was fine-tuned and agreed upon between Bosniak, Serbian and Croatian leaders, with the mediation and good offices of Brussels. The EU representatives had the word of the interim president of Republika Srpska Ana Trišić Babić and member of the BiH Presidency Željka Cvijanović, and then Milorad Dodik undermined the entire agreement and brought everything back to square one.
It is still not known whether Dodik made such a move because he received instructions from Belgrade or did it at the behest of Hungary or for some third reason. In any case, it is reliably known that someone exerted pressure, and it was very effective, because all leaders in the RS agreed to adopt laws and appoint a negotiator in order to open the door for the start of negotiations.
If we were to follow the ancient Roman parameter cui prodest, then the Serbian authorities would be first on the list of suspects, because, with the closing of five chapters with Montenegro in December, BiH's progress would be good news for the entire region, except for the regime in Belgrade. If Bosnia and Herzegovina had moved in December and paved the way for the opening of negotiations, it would have caught up with Serbia within a year. For Belgrade, this would, along with Montenegro's progress, be another very heavy blow that would make the wrong direction in which the current regime is leading Serbia even more visible.
THE ROLE OF FRANCE
Montenegro's biggest problem in 2026 will be administrative capacity, because in a year it will be necessary to do work that takes at least twice as long, starting from the preparation of legal solutions, through the adoption of laws, to their implementation, especially those in the field of the rule of law, the fight against corruption and organized crime. The French, Germans and Dutch will be very strict and demanding about this.
Montenegro will be able to count on understanding, primarily from the European Commission, but not on turning a blind eye when it comes to key matters related to the establishment of a functional rule of law.
In some EU countries, primarily France and the Netherlands, they believe that Milojko Spajić's government has not done enough in the fight against organized crime and corruption.
Harmonization of the visa regime is part of the list of major problems on Montenegro's path to the EU, and one gets the impression that the authorities in Podgorica are underestimating this aspect. Namely, one of the reasons, but not the only one, why the French temporarily blocked Montenegro last December were precisely the decisions of the government in Podgorica regarding visa regimes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
The French were also not happy that Turkey was still on the list of countries with a visa-free regime with Montenegro. With the great work of people from European institutions, especially from the European Commission, the position of Paris has been softened and Turkey will be able to stay until the last deadline given to Montenegro to fully harmonize its visa regime with the EU. However, the French will put Montenegro through its paces in the next year and that will be a big test for Montenegro.
Croatia remains an enigma. The European officials themselves who are working on Montenegro's European integration process are optimistic for half the month, and pessimistic for the other half. However, it is believed that Zagreb and Podgorica will find an agreement, and that, if Montenegro does the whole job, Croatia will not be the only one to block its neighbor's entry into the EU.
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