Older generations (to which I belong) well remember the great tensions and geopolitical competition between the two military blocs of the time – the Western one, led by the Americans, and the Eastern one, led by the Russians, then the Soviet Union – which was called the Cold War and lasted for a full 46 years from 1945. It was cold because the great powers did not enter World War III, but the blocs directly or indirectly acted in a series of regional and local conflicts, the so-called surrogate wars.
In the early 70s, both sides showed interest in creating a more stable and predictable international order, which led to the implementation of the policy of détente, which in a broader sense means the calming of international tensions and the predominance of diplomacy over confrontation. This was followed by negotiations on nuclear arms control (SALT agreements), which did not reduce the arms race with conventional weapons, but continued to produce tension between individual states. The then Cold War lasted until December 1991, when the Soviet Union and its military arm, the Warsaw Pact, formally disintegrated, causing a domino effect and leading to the fall of communism in the countries of Eastern Europe.
For the sake of younger readers, I have reminded you of the division of the world into blocs and the tensions of the last century, because the new Cold War is unfortunately underway again, and in it, in addition to the Americans and Russians, the Chinese are also involved. The world is witnessing new forms of confrontation, such as proxy wars, energy conflicts, cyber attacks, and economic sanctions that replace open conflicts. The new Cold War is therefore not fought only between states, but between value systems and models of governance. In such a world, security is not only the absence of a wider war that is important, but also the ability of a state to maintain functionality and stability despite the pressures of global crises.
Also, the deepening confrontation within the United Nations, where Russia and China increasingly use their vetoes against Western resolutions on security, Ukraine or human rights, is increasingly reminiscent of the paralysis of the Security Council from the earlier Cold War. In addition, the military and technological confrontation is becoming more pronounced: the United States and the European Union are investing billions of dollars and euros in the defense industry and artificial intelligence, while Russia and China are developing alternative supply networks and financial systems to separate themselves from the dollar and American influence, and nuclear rhetoric is once again returning to public discourse.
The recently published New American Defense Strategy for 2026 is very important in terms of how Cold War No. 2 could unfold in the future. In this strategy, the priority is to ensure the defense of the United States and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. It follows that China will be deterred in the Indo-Pacific by a demonstration of force, not confrontation, and in practice this means that America will protect Taiwan, although the island is not directly mentioned in the strategy, but it has long been known that its loss (because China also wants it) would be a blow to the authority of the United States, its de facto expulsion from the region. It is indicative that Russia, while the war in Ukraine has been going on for four years, is mentioned relatively briefly. Namely, the Pentagon describes the Russian threat as persistent but bearable and emphasizes that Moscow is not in a position to try to establish European hegemony, given that the European NATO surpasses Russia many times over in terms of population and economic power, and thus in terms of potential military capacity.
The strategy assures that the United States will remain engaged in Europe, but will adjust its force deployments and activities on the continent, with an emphasis on shifting troops from quantity to quality, prioritizing limited but critical support. The Europeans are expected to assume primary responsibility for their conventional defense, while the United States will focus on providing strategic support such as intelligence sharing, operational planning, and advanced military capabilities.
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