France and the authorities in Belgrade are the biggest threat to the ambitions of the Milojko Spajić government to bring Montenegro into the EU within the envisaged timeframe between 2028 and 2030, sources in the EU very familiar with the Montenegrin dossier told "Vijesti". According to our interlocutors, Podgorica must also be very wary of the actions of Belgium and the Netherlands. These two countries, together with the Fifth Republic, represent a bloc of states in the EU that is looking for an opportunity to undermine the enlargement process and slow it down as much as possible, and destabilizing Montenegro is one of the ways.
On the other hand, the EU is working hard to find formulas to accelerate the European integration of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova. In the next few months, the EU will significantly facilitate and make the methodology in the enlargement process more accessible and simpler.
A so-called hybrid plan has also been created, whereby the European Commission will be given much greater powers in the negotiation process, from opening chapters to other steps, while EU member states could block the progress of candidates for entry into the Union by a so-called reverse majority. Only a unanimous decision by all EU member states will be required to close the chapters.
The new methodology would allow Montenegro to complete the negotiations within the stipulated deadlines without major problems, would speed up Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and would give North Macedonia a chance to break the blockade imposed by Bulgaria through its veto. Serbia, too, with the new rules, if Belgrade makes a U-turn, which is unlikely, could seize a new opportunity to join the train with neighboring countries for EU membership.
BELGRADE IN THE SERVICE OF PARIS AGAINST PODGORICA
We are in a very sensitive period of Montenegro's European integration. If the regime in Belgrade has decided to destabilize Montenegro in order to prevent or delay its entry into the European Union, we are now entering a phase when the process is most vulnerable and when it may suffer serious delays that could prevent the realization of the plan for Montenegro to join the EU by the end of this decade.
A large part of the administration in Paris and The Hague, as well as De Wever's government in Brussels, sees Podgorica as a "soft underbelly" for questioning the European integration process of the Western Balkans. In France and the Netherlands, we have unstable minority governments and an electorate that is quite allergic to EU enlargement, so very few political formations are ready to shoulder the burden of responsibility for admitting new members to the EU before their own voters in an election or pre-election year.
In the Fifth Republic, we are approaching the presidential elections, which are scheduled for a little over a year from now, and that is why France is the most serious “landmine” for Montenegro’s negotiation process. No major party or potentially serious presidential candidate in France wants to be associated with the policy of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans.
The logic of the opponents of the Western Balkan countries' accession is: if we stop Montenegro, we automatically postpone further future EU enlargement. Of course, they will not block Podgorica by vetoing it, as Bulgaria does with North Macedonia; they will go to find reasons based on non-compliance with the conditions set out in the European agenda or they will take advantage of the possible destabilization of Montenegro.
The authorities in Belgrade are aware of the mood at the top of political parties and the establishment in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, which gives meaning to certain appearances and statements by the leaders of the progressive regime. In European institutions and member states that are strongly in favor of the EU enlargement process, they do not rule out the possibility that Serbia will try to destabilize Montenegro and thus serve Paris an excuse, as if on a platter, to stop Podgorica's negotiation process.
So, this is not about Serbian lobbying in France and other EU members against Montenegro, but about the coincidence of the mood and orientation of certain European governments with the interests of the authorities in Belgrade.
The majority of the executive branch and the majority in the French National Assembly would like to stop Montenegro and the entire European integration process as soon as possible, which was best seen at the end of last year, but they are being successfully prevented from doing so, at least for now, by President Emmanuel Macron, with the assistance of Minister of European Affairs Benjamin Haddad.
While Macron is at the Elysee Palace, Montenegro, as well as other Western Balkan countries, will have an ally in the European integration process, and that is why it is important to make the most of his stay at the head of the Fifth Republic until the spring of 2027.
Recall that President Macron was the key person who lifted the French barrier set by the relevant ministries in December last year for the temporary closure of five chapters for Montenegro. Without Macron and his engagement, Montenegro's chances of closing all chapters by the end of this year or in the first months of next would have been irreparably compromised.
Prime Minister Milojko Spajić and his associates are very well aware of the position of France and a few other countries that have reservations towards Montenegro, and one of the priorities of the government in Podgorica should be to avoid giving the opposing side an excuse to stop the process.
MANDIC'S CHOICE
European institutions are noticing that Montenegrin Prime Minister Spajić has been weakened, but the majority view within the EU is that the most important thing is to geopolitically stabilize Montenegro and anchor it firmly in the European backyard, so that the Prime Minister will be able to count on EU support.
Despite the friction in the ruling coalition and the departure of Democratic People's Party ministers from Spajić's government, everything that the EU expected Podgorica to do has been largely implemented, so it remains on track to close all chapters within the scheduled deadline.
"Vijesti" sources in the EU say that the President of the Parliament of Montenegro, Andrija Mandić, is playing fair for now, especially when it comes to implementing tasks from the so-called European agenda, and that the difference between him and Milan Knežević has become visible to everyone.
"Knežević is under the total influence of Belgrade and is doing exactly what we feared the entire, conditionally speaking, pro-Serbian bloc in Montenegro would do, which is to undermine Podgorica's path in the final phase of negotiations. Mandić not only did not follow in Knežević's footsteps, but there are no indications that he could do so, but we need to remain cautious," our interlocutor specifies.
The reason for the restraint is, conditionally speaking, a certain new attempt by the Belgrade regime to destabilize Montenegro. In Brussels, the possibility is not ruled out that the President of Serbia, at the moment when he realizes that the enlargement process is irreversible and that Montenegro is one step away from membership, will use his last trump card, which is pressure on the leader of the New Serbian Democracy to mine Podgorica's road on the last kilometer to EU membership. Then everything will depend on Mandić. For the President of the Parliament, this will be the final test: is he a statesman of Montenegro or a puppet of the Vučić regime, does he want to be part of the winning team that introduces Montenegro into the European family or part of the losing club that would condemn Montenegro to isolation?
IS MILATOVIĆ PART OF THE SOLUTION OR THE PROBLEM?
While Mandić is filtering optimism that he could stay on the European course, President Jakov Milatović's latest moves have come as an unpleasant surprise to those working on Montenegro's dossier in European institutions and member states. This particularly applies to the decision to return to parliamentary procedure 25 adopted laws largely related to fulfilling the conditions for closing chapters in the negotiation process with the EU.
Despite the fact that there is understanding for political ambitions and that it is clear to everyone that we are approaching an election year in Montenegro, and that all actors are trying to take the best possible position, Milatović's move is perceived as unnecessary and capricious because one should not collect political points by questioning the implementation of the European agenda and, therefore, the pace of Montenegro's approach to EU membership.
In some influential circles within the EU, Milatović is starting to be seen more as part of the problem than as a solution, so the President of Montenegro should correct his policy course while there is still time. If there is any animosity or rivalry with Prime Minister Spajić, Montenegro should not pay the price for the unresolved accounts of the President and Prime Minister, the EU believes.
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