The President of the Parliament of Montenegro, Andrija Mandić, has found a way and a path to reach the top of the United States and secure the American “green light” to become the Prime Minister of Montenegro, if he wins the next elections. However, to implement this plan, he needs money, which he does not currently have, but has enough time to collect, since the next parliamentary elections are scheduled for a little over a year.
American foreign policy is no longer created in the State Department. All important decisions are made in a very narrow circle of President Donald Trump. These are a few high-ranking officials - Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio - and a few other advisors and people of maximum trust of President Trump. All of them are connected to five or six lobbying agencies that, through them, have literally direct access to the White House.
Specifically, whoever pays or knows, conditionally speaking, the right people in Trump's environment, can not only present and explain their proposals and plans, but it is not excluded that they can even reach Trump himself. It is not said that this is enough to get the job done, because several currents with different interests, agendas and goals circulate around the American president, and they are often opposed to each other.
Upon Trump's return to the White House, there have been drastic changes in the number of agencies and lobbying groups that have access to the White House and, consequently, their fees.
In general, before Trump, there were 50-60 agencies circulating around the Oval Office that worked with the administration at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. In the last year, that number has been drastically reduced, and only five or six agencies remain that have access to the White House, that is, they have the connections, influence, and power to complete jobs on behalf of their clients.
The aforementioned dynamics have led to an exponential increase in the prices of services provided by agencies with access to the West Wing of the White House. Rates have doubled or even tripled; what used to cost 60 or a maximum of one hundred thousand dollars per month now costs 200 thousand euros and more. Of course, it is not possible to sign monthly contracts, but only multi-year contracts that are measured in millions, and sometimes, depending on the severity of the case, in tens of millions of dollars.
DODIK OPENS THE DOOR TO MANDIC
Former member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Milorad Dodik, unlike Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, had good information about who to contact to complete the job of removing him, his family members and closest associates from the blacklist. In addition to knowing who to contact, Dodik also had enough money to pay for the services. Diplomatic circles say that Dodik had to agree to a series of compromises and promise to stand behind all important decisions of Washington related to BiH.
The same package also included meetings and so-called photo opportunities with senior American officials and entry into the White House. Dodik did not reach Trump, but he did get the opportunity to have his picture taken with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon, Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, and to visit the office of Trump's spokeswoman Caroline Levitt.
Dodik's successful negotiations with the Americans, without the knowledge or participation of Aleksandar Vučić, further re-dimensioned the influence of the Serbian president in the region. It has become clear that he is no longer needed to resolve problematic situations in the region and that it is possible to get things done in Bosnia and Herzegovina without him.
There are several theories about Dodik's advisor in the American saga, but the most plausible is the one about Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister has the best relations in Europe with the White House, the MAGA movement and a series of conservative American organizations that contributed to Trump's victory in the last presidential election. Considering the relationship between Orbán and Dodik, it is quite credible that he indicated to his friend which consulting firms to contact, that is, which ones could get the job done for him.
The former President of Republika Srpska shared his “American experience” with the President of the Parliament of Montenegro, Andrija Mandić, and directed him to the addresses and people who helped him. However, after the first very positive contacts, in which it was stated that there was a good chance that the American administration would not “veto” Mandić’s candidacy for the position of Prime Minister after the next elections, it turned out that the NSD leader did not have enough funds.
The aforementioned lobbying agencies do not offer discounts or services on debt, so Mandić was told that they would be happy to advocate for him, but that he would have to secure the money first. Mandić got the message and allegedly started fundraising.
The move by the Speaker of the Parliament also has a specific political weight. Like Dodik, Mandić intends to open direct communication with Washington and step out of the shadow of the Serbian president, that is, to be able to act independently and without, conditionally speaking, a tutor. For the regime in Belgrade, this would be another blow and an indicator of weakening or even loss of influence, even in the so-called Serbian corps in Bosnia and Montenegro.
DNP WILL DROWN INTO NSD
Mandić understands that identity issues are not enough to stay in power, let alone make an “upgrade”, in his case it would be a move from the chair of the President of the Parliament of Montenegro to the Prime Minister. Something more is needed, especially since Belgrade's support is becoming increasingly variable and less constant, given that a regime change in Serbia cannot be ruled out.
DNP leader Milan Knežević has no other option than the "identity story" or the native, Zeta diameter. He has no political strength or capacity to move to a higher level. Quite simply, his greatest assets, honesty and simplicity, are also his limits.
In the new circumstances and the distribution of forces on the political stage, the DNP with Knežević at its helm has no future. If it goes directly against Mandić in the fight for the so-called Serbian votes, the opposite will happen - the DNP will drown in the NSD. If it continues to conduct politics by inertia with witty and lucid public appearances, the coronation of the DNP will proceed more slowly, but equally unstoppable.
Knežević is aware of the aforementioned trend, but he has no alternative, which is why he is playing the "Vučić's man" card in Montenegro. The Serbian president uses him when necessary because he knows that he is a marginal player, admittedly entertaining and sometimes effective, but still marginal.
MONTENEGRO AND ICELAND THE LAST EU MEMBERS UNDER THE OLD RULES
Montenegro is, at least for now, exempt from the discussion on creating a new methodology for admitting new EU members. Podgorica will be subject to the existing rules and, possibly with Iceland, it should be the last new member to be admitted under the current rules into full membership, which will be limited by a number of so-called safeguards.
There will be attempts by some, even powerful EU members, to limit Montenegro's veto power, but these efforts are unlikely to bear fruit. The only credible removal of the veto power could relate to the admission of new members. The discussion is ongoing and several scenarios with various nuances are still on the table.
The results of the elections in Hungary and, to some extent, in Slovenia are also awaited, as they will be a kind of litmus test for developments within the EU and the creation of conditions for a new distribution of forces in the Union.
In Brussels, they expect Viktor Orban's defeat and some kind of "polonization" of Hungary, i.e. for the leader of the Hungarian opposition, Peter Magyar, to do what Donald Tusk did in Poland after taking power from the clerical populist Jaroslaw Kaczynski of the Law and Justice party. In Slovenia, it would be desirable for the populist right of Janez Janša not to return to power.
ACCESSION AGREEMENT ACCORDING TO THE CROATIAN OR NEW FORM
Two groups of member states have formed within the EU when it comes to drafting the Accession Treaty with Montenegro. Countries that advocate for relatively quick entry and full membership for Montenegro insist that the Treaty be drawn up on the Croatian model, while another group of member states - mainly countries that are cool or skeptical about new enlargements - demand that the Montenegrin Accession Treaty be a template for future enlargements.
France has made it clear that it will not politically hinder Montenegro, but the possibility cannot be ruled out that Paris is seeking technical finesse to slow down or complicate Montenegro's approach to EU membership.
The elections in France are very important and the election campaign will be fierce, uncertain and will revolve around enlargement. Those around President Macron say that they have nothing against enlargement, especially not when it comes to Montenegro, but they add that a three-fifths majority in parliament is required to ratify the Accession Treaty of a candidate country or a referendum decision.
The problem is that in the current composition of the National Assembly in Paris, no country, not even Montenegro, would receive the required qualified majority, which would mean that a referendum is the only way out, and that is a very uncertain scenario that should definitely be avoided.
Public opinion polls in France show that there is a high probability that the composition of the National Assembly, after the 2027 elections, will be even more unfavorable to the EU enlargement policy than the current one.
That is why it is important that the government and the opposition, as well as the civil sector in Podgorica, engage all available resources and contacts to create the most positive image of Montenegro in French society. In this way, they would have a credible "parachute" in a possible referendum if ratification does not have a chance to pass in parliament.
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