When he launched his thesis on the importance of brothers in the Balkan octopus in 2019, Zoran Čičak, a leftist and former politician, mentioned only three cases. The Haradinaj brothers, the Rama brothers, and the Đukanović brothers. Belgrade editor Sloba Georgijev followed up on his tweet by adding a few more "of his own": the Stefanović brothers, the Petković brothers, the Mali brothers, the Vučić brothers. And then some nickname below that, sexist or misogynistic, whatever, added: the Brnabić brothers too.
A few years earlier, the same author, Mr. Čičak, who had traveled the political path from Mira Marković to Ranko Krivokapić, from fascism to anti-fascism, compiled an impressive list of advice to an imaginary friend, a Serbian oppositionist, who was preparing to seize power. For example: Never, at any cost, make pacts with criminals. Especially Montenegrin ones. Nor with foreign services. Especially British ones. It's not worth it, neither. And the combination of both is most often deadly.
On the same list, which should be distributed to every Balkan politician, near the end, Čičak wrote down one piece of advice, especially relevant in the current Montenegrin moment: no one is eternal. Learn to predict your political defeat in time, prepare for it and bear it with sportsmanship. If you have the opportunity, try to influence your successor to be someone who will read and understand these tips of mine. It will be better for both you and him. I won't care anyway.
It is much more polite to quote someone else than yourself. That's why I'm skipping the column from 2015, whose title was "Master, step back, save Montenegro (and yourself)". The message was irresistibly similar to Zoran Čičak's: in any business, including politics, a real player must recognize the moment when it is time to hang up his boots. Any ignoring of facts and realities that clearly suggest to the leader of a nation that the game is over, later comes back to haunt him like a boomerang.
I could today, paraphrasing Čičak, say - it would have been better for both Milo and Aco if they had taken me seriously in 2015, or even better ten years earlier, right after the referendum, and it turns out that Krivokapić's friend from the second half of his life was right - It will be better for both you and him, I won't care anyway.
While MĐ is probably "sorrying" these days that his brother is imprisoned, not only because he is his brother, but also specifically, because of the rifle that the leader received from his brother as a gift, or because of the ammunition that the guards of the protected person, so again for his sake, the leader and the leader, forgot in the attic of the family house - perhaps as a consolation or self-justification he thinks of the undeniable fact that in human history very few political leaders have recognized the moment and freed society and institutions from their lust for power and autocracy in time. Quite the opposite, the majority of such leaders, including MĐ, tried to stay for life if possible, believing that it was the best for their people, their families and themselves. It is enough to look back only half a century and you will find numerous examples, from Ceausescu, through Milošević, then Gaddafi and Mubarak, then Gruevski and Sanader, to the current Maduro or Ali Khamenei. Although each of these fates is a story in itself, with very different ideological and political reasons for its origin, duration and ending, there is also something in common - more or less every such story ends in a more or less bad or tragic way. And for the leaders themselves, their close ones, but also their people.
When Vučić reads this column this morning, hoping that his Milan K. has started writing it - he will have something to read. And to think about. Or ask himself - has his moment come or has it already passed, for his boots on the peg. Is he taking a risk or is such an epilogue, sooner or later inevitable, that he will one day watch Andrej being brought in and imprisoned because of one of his rifles in Jajinci. Or because of the ammunition that the "Cobras" forgot somewhere in the attic of the villa. Or in its basement, among the bottles of fine wine.
Although Rama seems the freshest, if not the wisest, his style of governance is a carbon copy of Djukanovic and Vucic. The opposition and international observers accuse Rama of systemic corruption at all levels, most of which goes to his clique and oligarchs. Albania is often described as a country with clear links between politics and criminal groups, and Rama's style of governance is centralized and authoritarian, with complete control over the party, parliament and the media.
It is not difficult to imagine that one day, even if Milo, on election night, concedes defeat in a sporting manner, the guilt of Rama's autocratic rule and developed endemic corruption will be paid by his brother rather than by himself?! At least chronologically. And Edi will be torn apart that they are not his first, or only him, because without his charisma and autocracy, his own brother would be an ordinary citizen of Tirana, the head of accounting of a large company or the state secretary in the Ministry of Sports - and not the richest Albanian. Excuse me, Kastrati.
As AI likes to say, according to available sources, the wealth of Rama's brother Olsi is estimated at 200 million. From businesses related to offshore companies, telecommunications and the gambling industry? The same sources estimate the wealth of the younger Đukanović at 183 million, and you know about the businesses yourself. From alleged early work related to oil smuggling, through legal investments in banking and real estate, to numerous lucrative deals with the state. Compared to the aforementioned duo, Andrej is "naked as a gun". Or he managed better. Well, he keeps all his assets with Veselinović and Radojičić. As Radoje Zvicer claims on Skaju. Which AV is now trying to dispute in the Podgorica Basic Court.
Haradinaj, at least that's how it seems at the moment, was happier than smarter. He lost power after just a few years, so he and his brother remained outside of numerous and lucrative combinations with the state, and thus far below the radar of local and international investigators. The Macedonian Gruevski managed to escape in time, via comrade Milo, to his brother Orban. Where possible, he runs a restaurant or hotel for his brother (by aunt) Saša Mijalkov. During Gruevski's reign of terror, Saša was the head of the secret service, and after the fall of the prime minister and his brother, he survived indictments for abuse of office, organized crime and links to terrorist incidents! Although he was sentenced to several prison sentences totaling 12 years, he was eventually released on parole by the independent judiciary of North Macedonia.
Perhaps the Macedonian case most vividly describes the motives of the recent letter of two brothers, political of course, Vučić and Rama, to the hated Brussels. Instead of accelerated integration and EU membership, veto rights and scheming with Putin, against the interests of the Union, Alek and Edi propose that Brussels should only join them to the single market and Schengen! And all this because of the internal weaknesses of the EU, which only promises membership and does everything to postpone it, and not because of their unfulfilled promises and obligations, not because of their autocracy, organized crime and endemic corruption. Or what would PES MP Nedović say, in a comment she signed, although I am not sure that she composed it herself: "While Rama and Vučić write in foreign media about a 'realistic path' and 'painful reforms', the situation on the ground suggests a completely different strategy: staying in power through controlled instability. Their joint declaration is nothing more than an attempt to cement the region into the 'antique hall' of Europe - where trade takes place without borders, but rule is without law!
The only thing I don't understand is why PES is adding Đukanović to the aforementioned duo, but not Mandić. When their main coalition partner, many say the true leader of the majority, is much more likely today to "trade without borders and rule without laws"! Isn't the case of promoting the peacemaker Trump, still false, a clear illustration of the former, and the attacks on the prosecution and courts regarding his nephew, even more convincing confirmation of the latter. Đukanović was Rama's brother and Vučić's father ten years ago, today he is forgotten and abandoned mostly by themselves. While Mandić is the new brother. And some Danilo, the new Andrej or Osli. He is not a brother but a nephew, but if the uncle lasts in power, we will come to the same thing.
"When leaving, be a gentleman, don't whine and complain about your evil fate. That always sounds so pitiful and miserable. And once you leave, don't come back, politicians are not a well-heated stew"... Milo did not listen to this advice from Zoran Čičak either. There is little chance that Edi or Alek will. Hence this generous offer to the Brussels administration and EU leaders. We give you the right of veto and never to the EU home, and you give us the market, money and autocracy that is already there. Or what available sources would say, complete control over parliament, institutions, the judiciary and the media. Which is equally important to them while they are in power, as when they step down.
Balkan brothers. They are loved by their mother.
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