This money is not taken by an individual, but by a ramified system of interests that produces, protects and multiplies corruption: it blocks reforms, defends chaos because it draws power, profit and rent from it, and turns public finances into a lever of political control, rentier corruption and a malignant, socially destabilizing influence..
KEY FIGURES
Total annual public spending: almost 3 billion euros, about 40% of GDP.
Amount going through public procurement: almost 1 billion euros.
Procurement with only one bidder: 40-52%.
Estimated annual loss total: at least 550 to 826 million euros.
Montenegro loses more than half a billion euros every year due to inefficient budget management and public procurement. International indices show how far behind Denmark and Estonia we are – and what needs to be done.
In the public debate about Montenegro's budget, one key calculation is almost never mentioned. The state spends almost three billion euros of public money every year, and more than a third of that amount – almost a billion – goes through the public procurement system. In more than half of these procedures, there is only one bidder. One. No competition, no price comparison, no market competition. That is not an anomaly. That is not a coincidence. That is the model by which the system operates.
WHERE WE STAND - NUMBERS THAT DON'T LIE
Every two years, international organizations measure the quality of public money management. Montenegro is in the middle of the scale – far below what the EU considers an acceptable standard.
Transparency International ranks the anti-corruption cleanliness (strength) of countries on a scale from 0 to 100. Denmark is ranked 90Estonia on 76. Montenegro – 46. This 44-point gap is not a statistical abstraction. World Bank research shows that each point of improvement on this scale correlates with a GDP per capita growth of 1,5 do 2 percent per year. If Montenegro reached the level of Estonia, that would translate into 230 to 380 million euros of additional GDP – without a single new investment, just from better management of public finances.
The international organization International Budget Partnership measures the transparency of the budget process. The threshold for sufficient transparency is 61 point. Denmark has 88. Estonia 71. Montenegro – 48. Below an acceptable threshold. This means that the citizens of Montenegro do not receive enough information to be able to meaningfully monitor how their money is being spent.
The OECD and the EU jointly monitor the public procurement system for all candidate countries. On a scale of 0 to 5, Denmark scores 4,6Estonia 4,3. Montenegro – 2,6. But that number is not the most devastating. The most devastating is this: In Denmark, 5 percent of procurements end without competition - with one bidder. In Estonia about 10 percent. In Montenegro - 52 percent.
Every other contract signed by a state institution in Montenegro has no competition.. No price comparison. There is no market..
COMPARISON WITH DENMARK AND ESTONIA
Transparency International CPI | Danish: 90 | Estonia: 76 | Montenegro: 46
Open Budget Survey | Danish: 88 | Estonia: 71 | Montenegro: 48
OECD/EU public procurement system | Denmark: 4,6 | Estonia: 4,3 | Montenegro: 2,6
Procurement with one bidder | Denmark: 5% | Estonia: about 10% | Montenegro: 40–52%
In addition to official data, the text also uses estimates of potential annual losses and savings based on the experiences of countries with similar levels of public spending and better management standards.
TRANSPARENCY AS A FACADE
There is a frequent defense from politicians: we have laws, we have institutions. True. Montenegro has a Public Procurement Law aligned with EU standards. It has a State Audit Institution. It has a Commission for the Protection of Rights. It has an electronic system for public procurement. And with all that 40-52% procurement is without competition.
The State Audit Institution publishes reports every year in which it finds the same irregularities. Recommendations are ignored. An electronic system exists, but the outcome is often known in advance: specifications are written to suit a particular supplier, deadlines are deliberately short, and a negotiated procedure without tender is used. eight times more often than is usual in the EU.
This is not a problem of bad individuals. This is the expected outcome of a system that rewards corruption and leaves honest work unprotected.
WHAT CAN BE DONE - AND FOR HOW MUCH MONEY
There are two clear models of reform, with specific savings estimates, based on the experiences of countries that have already solved this problem.
1. Budget management according to the Danish model
A four-year fiscal framework, an independent Fiscal Council, a central register of employees and publicly available real-time expenditures. Applying this model to Montenegro brings between I 354 531 million euros in annual savings - that's 12 to 18 percent total budget expenditures.
Annual savings: 354 – 531 million euros.
2. Procurement according to the Finnish and Estonian models
Central framework contracts, automatic verification of bidders and publication of each contract online within 48 hours. The application of this model to Montenegro brings between 196 and 295 million euros annual savings from procurement.
Annual savings: 196 – 295 million euros.
Together: between 550 and 826 million euros per year. For comparison, Montenegro's entire budget deficit in 2024 was around 220 million euros. The reform would eliminate it and create a surplus.
WHAT CAN BE DONE RIGHT NOW - WITHOUT A NEW LAW
There is no need to wait for legal changes or EU processes. By government decision, within a few weeks, it is possible to introduce three measures that would save between 50 and 80 million euros in the first year:
1. Moratorium on new employment in public administration
Suspension of all new employment in public administration until a central register of employees is established and all jobs are audited.
Year: immediately.
2. Mandatory verification of market prices from at least three sources before every tender above 10.000 euros
Any public procurement procedure above the specified threshold must be preceded by a documented comparison of market offers – without exceptions.
Year: three months.
3. Publishing all contracts online within 48 hours of signing
Full and automatic publication of every signed contract in a publicly accessible register, within 48 hours of signing.
Year: three months.
All three are government measures. They do not require a parliamentary majority. They do not require new legislation. They only require the will.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT NOW?
Montenegro closed Chapter 5 on public procurement in negotiations with the EU in June 2025, and Chapter 32 on financial control in January 2026. This is a formal success. But closing a chapter means that the law is in compliance, not that the system is functioning..
Closing the chapter does not end EU surveillance. On the contrary. The IMF warns that, without new measures, the budget deficit will exceed 4 percent of GDP by 2030 and calls for fiscal consolidation of 1,5 percent of GDPThe problem is that this space for consolidation is already within the system, but it is being wasted through mismanagement, disorganization, and corruption. Public procurement and budget reform therefore brings many times more than the mandatory minimum that the IMF is demanding.
Denmark and Estonia are not rich because of luck or natural resources. They are rich because they decided to spend public money the way a good host would – transparently, competitively, and under strict control. Montenegro can do the same. The tools exist. The models are proven. All that is missing is the decision.
Every year without reform costs Montenegro between 550 and 826 million euros. These are not abstract losses, but unbuilt roads, hospitals without equipment and schools that have been waiting for reconstruction for years. These are citizens who use their taxes to maintain a system that steals from them, exhausts them and works against them. Reform is therefore not a matter of choice, but of elementary responsibility towards citizens.
DATA AND SOURCES: Transparency International CPI 2024 · International Budget Partnership OBS 2023 · World Bank WGI 2023 · SIGMA/OECD Monitoring 2024 · UN DESA eGov Survey 2024 · PEFA Montenegro 2019/2023 · IMF Article IV 2025 · MONSTAT 2024 · Ministry of Finance of Montenegro · Public Procurement Administration of Montenegro 2024. Savings estimates based on the experiences of Denmark, Finland and Estonia, adjusted to the size and structure of the Montenegrin economy. SIGMA/EU estimates a savings potential of 20–30% for the Western Balkans with full implementation of the system of measures.
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