A measure for Montenegro's full membership in the EU

The defeat of Viktor Orban in the Hungarian elections and the very productive EU summit in Nicosia were crucial for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to give the green light for Montenegro's full membership in the EU. In other words, Berlin has given up on seeking creative solutions for new limited EU enlargements.

At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron has also adjusted Paris's stance, not only because of Orban's defeat, but also because the climate in the Fifth Republic is changing ahead of the presidential elections: The National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardelle no longer looks so unstoppable and invincible in the next elections for the Élysée Palace.

In the past three weeks, there has been a major shift within the EU when it comes to the relationship with Montenegro. According to our contacts who are very familiar with the Montenegrin dossier or are working on it, everyone in Brussels has understood that “enlargement to Montenegro is happening”, i.e. that 2028 and 2029 are realistically achievable for a new EU enlargement to include Montenegro and possibly Iceland.

"This is a psychological moment that is incredibly important, it has become tangible and that feeling will be even stronger because the European Commission has in the meantime qualitatively and quantitatively strengthened the team working on completing the negotiation process, which is the best sign that we are here: we are entering the final phase," our source in the EU tells "Vijesti".

According to our interlocutor, after the "green light" from Germany and France and their abandonment of some new type of EU membership, the only major political problem for Montenegro in the last mile to EU membership is the dispute with Croatia.

"The advice of all European partners to Montenegro, whether they are people from EU institutions or member states, is to close the dispute with Croatia as soon as possible. The momentum that has been created should be used. The summit in Nicosia showed that the awareness that Montenegro will become a member of the EU has matured, that it has become a reality that everyone is counting on. This was evident in the talks that both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had at the bilateral and multilateral levels," our diplomatic contact in one of the most important European member states told us.

THE AGREEMENT WITH MONTENEGRO IS BEING WRITTEN ACCORDING TO THE CROATIAN MODEL

A major victory for the EC and the people working on enlargement in the EU Council over the, to put it mildly, skeptical part of the Union towards enlargement is the decision to base the draft Accession Treaty with Montenegro on the agreement that Croatia signed with the EU 13 years ago, and not on the hybrid creation of some new agreement based on a gradual or staged path to full EU membership.

The Montenegrin draft of the Accession Treaty for joining the EU will include a series of so-called safeguards, but they are not a means of taking away voting rights or limiting Montenegro's membership in the EU, but rather mechanisms that will be activated if Podgorica fails to implement reforms and policies at the required European level. Therefore, the safeguards will serve Montenegro to reach European standards as quickly and efficiently as possible, and not the EU to limit its membership.

However, we should not rest on our laurels and the wind that blows into Montenegro's European sails; on the contrary, Podgorica faces superhuman efforts and a huge amount of work until the end of the year. We have entered a phase of the accession process when it becomes quite evident that Montenegro's administrative capacities are limited and additional efforts will be needed from the existing team to fulfill everything that is needed for Montenegro to reach EU membership on time. It is noticeable, to use a sporting expression, the shortness of breath of the administrative apparatus working to fulfill the European agenda, and therefore the help of all who can help would be valuable.

"Montenegro faces a big, huge task in the next eight months, but no matter how demanding these conditions and tasks are, they are only technical and consequently a way can always be found to resolve them. The same cannot be said for the dispute with Croatia, which is political par excellence and needs to be resolved immediately, preferably before the start of the summer and the marking of anniversaries and events that carry tensions and can be misused to create additional problems for Montenegro," added our contact in the EU.

FRANCE, BELGIUM AND THE NETHERLANDS WILL BE RIGOROUS

In Podgorica, they must prepare to work around the clock. There will be no room for fatigue and answers like “I can’t” or “it can’t be done”. The Montenegrin government, at least for now, is consulting and taking into account all proposals and corrections coming from the European Commission when it comes to the so-called European agenda and the adoption of laws and other measures. Spajić’s team is sending all materials, draft laws and reforms to Brussels for review. This is very important because it is the best possible way to convince and appease France, the Netherlands and Belgium, which have the greatest reservations. This is not about any special attitude towards Montenegro, but above all towards enlargement in general in Paris, The Hague and Brussels.

It is noticeable that countries skeptical of enlargement are closely monitoring the adoption and implementation of laws in Podgorica because they want to use them to portray Montenegro to their domestic publics as a reliable country capable of reaching and maintaining European standards and a European level. Harmonizing the text of Montenegro's laws and reforms with the EU is an instrument that gives Paris, Brussels and The Hague something concrete in their hands with which they can influence the mood in the political milieu and in the respective electorates to approve Podgorica's entry into the EU.

At the same time, the EC has become much more proactive and works not only more concretely but also more efficiently with Montenegro. This is visible through the increase in the number of people working on the Montenegrin dossier, but also through the speed and quality of responses, guidelines, advice and any other assistance that Brussels provides to Podgorica. The goal is for Podgorica to prepare its legislation quickly, correctly and at the same time in a way that is acceptable to everyone.

This is a completely normal course of events in the final phase of negotiations, and this hyperactivity of the EC is another sign that we have entered the final stretch. This has been the case in all previous enlargements. When the end of negotiations approaches, the European Commission further accelerates its work and takes the initiative to meet the conditions, providing precise solutions to all issues, from simple to problematic, based on the experiences of previous enlargements.

TWO INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCES AND FOUR CHAPTERS BY JULY

The European Union is working on preparing two intergovernmental conferences in the next two months. The European side believes that it is realistic to close three chapters, the Montenegrin side is more ambitious and would like to close more chapters. This is possible, but it would be optimal, say our sources in Brussels, to close four more chapters by the end of the first semester, but among them would be chapter 31, which is currently blocked by Croatia. In this scenario, Montenegro could prepare much larger packages of closing technical chapters during the autumn and adhere to the marching table towards closing negotiations by the end of this year or in the first half of next year.

It should be emphasized here that the four closed chapters in the next two months would be a great success if they included Chapter 31, which is related to foreign policy. The EU is trying to explain to Montenegrin partners that difficult political issues should not be left for last because they take up much more time in Brussels, in the member states and on the domestic front.

"If the Montenegrins were to make the mistake of leaving the problematic Chapter 31 for October or November, they would risk causing a major delay and then the closure of negotiations within the desired deadline would become uncertain," warn the interlocutors of "Vijesti".

CROATIA IS THE LAST OBSTACLE ON MONTENEGRO'S EU PATH

Montenegro has the opportunity to close the disputed issues with Croatia in the next few weeks, at the prime ministerial level, where Spajić and Plenković should play the main roles. This opportunity should absolutely be seized, that is, to resolve the dispute by the end of spring in order to close Chapter 31, which is blocked by Croatia, by July. This is very important because possible provocations should be avoided at the beginning of August, when Croatia will celebrate Operation Storm, and Serbia will commemorate the expulsion of Serbs from Croatia, which will inevitably have its reflections on the political situation in Montenegro.

The two sides, according to our sources, have almost agreed on everything - the Morinje issue is well on its way to being fully resolved - and there are practically only three things left to be resolved: defining the preamble of the agreement, the name of the pool in Kotor "Zoran Džimi Gopčević" and the ship "Jadran".

The fact that EU accession has become visible to everyone should motivate Montenegrin politicians to be more flexible and swallow the occasional frog for the sake of a higher goal. Croatia will not budge on some issues, such as the name of the swimming pool in Kotor, and the rest of the EU does not understand why Montenegrins have such a problem changing the name of the swimming pool. This is seen as a local problem that can be elegantly solved by the mayor of Kotor by giving the swimming pool a name that will not be controversial to anyone or, moreover, it could be transformed into a gesture of reconciliation through giving the swimming pool a new name.

The fact that the bilateral dispute with Croatia is a collection of relatively small or, for those who look from the side, trivial issues, does not mean that they cannot create a big problem. It would be crazy for the issue of the ship “Jadran” or the renaming of the Kotor basin to serve as a motive for stopping Montenegro one step away from EU membership, or for these two disputes to be a matter of Montenegrin policy principles. Podgorica should swallow these “frogs” because the pressure on the aforementioned issues will not be on Croatia, but on Montenegro. In such a constellation, it is better to solve the problem immediately, before it grows into something much more complicated.