The Age of the Middleman

(Financial Times; Peščanik.net)

Geopolitical thinker Robert Kaplan once suggested that “understanding world events begins with maps and ends with Shakespeare.” Today’s global state is less sublime. It begins with Donald Trump’s social media posts and ends with the business interests of the US president’s friends and family.

A recent publication by the European Council on Foreign Relations concludes that the involvement of Trump’s friends and family members in solving complex foreign policy problems poses a systemic risk to Europe. The actions of his special envoys are “as predictable as the rhythm of Morse code,” the authors state. “First, pressure is applied to the weaker side by postponing difficult issues, and then an attempt is made to enforce agreements through personal connections.” European leaders are concerned about this new “diplomacy without diplomats,” but they should try to understand it.

In a world without shared principles and functioning institutions, special envoys are indispensable. The only thing holding the world together is the fact that the same people are negotiating to end the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, and that they can call the president at any time. The Peace Council is no substitute for the UN, but a golf course can be just as good as a negotiating table.

Diplomacy is changing because the nature of American power is changing. After World War II, American hegemony provided global public goods—open sea lanes, a stable financial system, and collective security. Today, America is no longer willing or able to provide these goods. Instead, it prefers to act as the world’s leading disruptor.

Other countries should recognize this fact and act accordingly, given that the main goal of American foreign policy is now to show the rest of the world how powerful it is. The United States practices a form of theatrical hegemony in which all wars are just “special operations,” and all failed special operations (like the one in Iran) become global problems to be solved by others.

In Trump's foreign policy, speed is more important than direction. A feverish unpredictability keeps all actors off balance. Allies cannot plan, adversaries cannot assess the situation, and institutions cannot adapt. While the world is processing one shock, the next one has already arrived.

This chaotic approach is what American political theorist Stephen Holmes calls “hierarchy without order.” We could also call it the Agamemnon doctrine, in which retaliation—for both enemies and disloyal allies—is inevitable.

It is a worldview that assumes that states are not equal, that even powerful powers are not equally powerful, and that those powers should enjoy their privileges and keep their spoils—but only on condition that they acknowledge American supremacy. And that is no 21st-century politics, because this hegemon is driven not by interests but by pride and anger. Being a professional diplomat in the age of Trump is like being a coachman in the age of the automobile. Simply put, you are no longer needed. Your expertise is useless.

Special envoys are the new peacemakers because they are not burdened with expertise or constrained by bureaucratic procedures. And the fact that Trump's intermediaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are deeply involved in conflicts of private business interests is their comparative advantage, because without conflicts of interest they would not be motivated to resolve military conflicts. They talk business all the time, while the rest of the world hopes for peace.

Life in Trump's world is like riding a Ferris wheel in the Prater, Vienna's historic amusement park, where vertigo turns into profit. It's a world shaped by intermediaries, not middle powers (like Turkey, the Gulf states, or Pakistan) that dream of being more important players.

America is in a hurry, so it doesn't have time to shoot full-length films, but only releases trailers. Some will be successful, as in the case of Venezuela, but some will backfire, as in the case of Iran.

The time factor is crucial here. Conflicts should be short. If America can't end them, it will leave them to others. That's the true meaning of power for Trump: it's not about the ability to impose your will on others, but the ability to make them solve your problems. The role of special envoys is to make everyone else understand that.

(Translated by Luna Đorđević)