The French connection was stronger than the Serbian one this time. That is probably why Vučić's flying squad of Black Hoods was returned from Tivat airport to Belgrade two days ago. The question that remains hanging over Montenegro is what would have happened if it hadn't?
According to unofficial information, after receiving a tip from colleagues in France that 87 Serbian citizens had left for Tivat on a charter flight, the Montenegrin police decided to deport them all back because they posed a threat to national security. These are people from the criminal, hooligan and thug milieu who have been serving Vučić and his SNS for the past year and a half to break up student demonstrations, beat them up and intimidate them, thus trying to save the shaken Serbian president from losing power.
It all happens on the eve of the EU-Western Balkans Summit in Tivat, the largest international gathering Montenegro has ever hosted. Tivat and Montenegro are inundated with security agents who look after the currently most powerful leaders of the EU countries, so the presence of Vučić's tattooed Praetorians in their vicinity could not be tolerated.
Why did he send them then? Quite possibly because he had reason to believe that no one would return them and that his network in Montenegro, security-logistics and political, would finish the job, escort the team to an expensive hotel, and then deploy them the next day around Tivat and Boka Bay to unfurl the party banner "Serbia is winning" and shout slogans in his honor.
Considering who they are and what they are paid for, provocations, incidents and possible physical confrontations on the streets of Tivat would be desirable, as long as Macron, Merz, Meloni, Sanchez and other European leaders are discussing EU enlargement policy and the most important issues in this part of the world.
What would he achieve by doing so? First, he would show in action that he is a factor in Montenegro and that he is not just “Alexander of Serbia” but something much more, he is the leader of the “Serbian world”. Second, he would humiliate Montenegro, presenting it as a weak state that is not quite capable of being a full member of the EU. Third, and unusually important to him, he would be the center of attention, journalists would seek him out more than Macron and other leaders of the Old Continent.
What is Vučić's goal? To stop Montenegro from joining the EU. If he fails, he will lose influence over Podgorica because, as part of the EU, even with the current ruling party, it will start to lean more on Brussels than on Belgrade. In addition, if he stays in power for a few more years, he will turn out to be a loser who is not wanted in the European family. And, imagine, there is a small Montenegro there.
His influence will no longer cross the borders of Serbia, leaving Republika Srpska, which significantly reduces his room for maneuver to produce surrounding crises in order to divert the public's focus in Serbia from the criminal and corruption scandals that are shaking Serbia.
Although political opponents in Serbia describe him as an "unbalanced man surrounded by fools" and claim that it is therefore wrong to seek a rational explanation for his actions, Vučić's policy towards Montenegro is very balanced and predictable.
That's why Montenegro will still encounter his belligerent Cerberus in black tight T-shirts, masks and black caps. Some of them were already seen in Berane and Nikšić on the eve of the last elections, handing out money and demonstrating power, thus helping Vučić's local allies.
There is no doubt that if Vučić holds out on the throne in Belgrade until then, his cronies will once again visit Montenegro. Before that, we will see more "documentaries" produced by his servants who flatter him by sowing hatred and an unimaginable repertoire of nastiness.
Because, if the government does not depend on his outposts in Montenegro after the 2027 elections and, consequently, the erection of barricades on Montenegro's path to the EU, he knows that he is becoming irrelevant.
And incompetent.
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