Croatia sends signal to Brussels: agreement with Montenegro on track

A message has been sent from the circle of Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković to the European institutions leading the enlargement process that Zagreb will not further complicate the issue of Montenegro if Podgorica does what it promised, contacts familiar with the EU enlargement process and the Western Balkans told "Vijesti". Prime Minister Plenković and his associates are aware of the historical significance and circumstances surrounding Montenegro's accession, which contributed to creating a good atmosphere for an agreement between Zagreb and Podgorica.

"If the Montenegrins do what was agreed, there will be no additional complications," was, more or less, Zagreb's position in its communication with the European Union institutions. It is interpreted in Brussels as a very encouraging signal that the two sides are on the right track to overcoming their mutual misunderstandings and disputes and at the same time finding mutually acceptable solutions.

The number of details in which Podgorica and Zagreb are still significantly distant has been considerably reduced and we are very close to good and fair solutions, from Morinje and compensation for prisoners, to the Jadran training ship. True, the Croatian side has, in the meantime, inserted some new conditions that were not in the so-called non-paper, but these are matters that should not represent an insurmountable obstacle.

The last details are being ironed out regarding Morinj and the prisoners, mostly regarding the text, since Zagreb insists on certain qualifications that do not concern Montenegro but have to do with Serbia, and official Podgorica does not want to be a bargaining chip in the relations between Zagreb and Belgrade.

In any case, Croatia is seeking guarantees that the memorial plaque in Morinj will remain in place permanently while an agreement in principle is reached regarding the prisoners, which will pay them compensation of around 800 euros per day spent in captivity. There should be no problem with this, as it is a practice that has already been applied by the Court in Strasbourg and The Hague.

There are also some disagreements about the mention of the dead and compensation for their families. No one was killed or died in the Morinj camp. Another pair of gloves is whether the subsequent deaths of some former prisoners in Morinj were direct or indirect consequences of their stay and the treatment of Croatian citizens by the guards.

In general, veterans of the Croatian Army insist on using a certain vocabulary that they hold dear, and since they have an influence on the outcome of the elections, it is logical that the Plenković government and the ruling HDZ want to accommodate them, especially as we approach the elections in Croatia. Also, these are the views of war veterans from Croatia that will be the same towards both Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, if and when Belgrade and Sarajevo reach the final stage of negotiations on EU membership.

Good progress has been made towards a solution acceptable to both sides regarding the Jadran. It is encouraging that the solution is being sought in a European spirit, that is, in the context of both countries' membership in NATO and very soon the EU, and with the intention of avoiding, as much as possible, political games.

It should be noted that the match between Zagreb and Podgorica has two halves, that is, the outcome of the negotiations between the two sides will also determine how the ratification process in the Croatian Parliament will proceed, and it will most likely be carried out in the midst of the election campaign, which makes the agreement between Zagreb and Podgorica even more delicate. Of course, we should not forget that the ruling coalition in Montenegro must also take into account its election campaign, which awaits it in the first half of 2027.

SIGNING THE ACCESSION AGREEMENT IS SURE, RATIFICATION WILL BE A STRUGGLE

Podgorica has received such great support from Paris and Berlin, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Friedrich Merz have fully backed the European Commission's plans when it comes to Montenegro - that it can be said with a great deal of certainty that Montenegro will complete negotiations by the end of this year or at the latest in the first months of next year, which does not change much in essence when it comes to realizing the ambition for Podgorica to enter the EU by the end of 2028 or in 2029.

Therefore, the conclusion of negotiations and the signing of the Accession Agreement is a reality, along with the status of an acceding country, while the ratification process and full membership will depend on a series of factors, some of which Montenegro will not be able to influence.

Elections in the member states, starting with France next year and Croatia in 2028, will have a specific weight. Let us recall that a three-fifths majority is required in the National Assembly in Paris and the authorities in Podgorica should already start working with all French parliamentary parties, especially those that most oppose enlargement – ​​the extreme right and the radical left.

In this context, it is very important for Montenegro that the referendum in Iceland passes positively and that Reykjavik returns to the European integration process. The chances that the ratification of the Accession Agreement with Montenegro will go smoothly and relatively quickly increase exponentially if it is included in a package with Iceland.

GREAT JOB DONE WITH THE FRENCH, BUT IT'S NOT OVER

During a visit two weeks ago to President Emmanuel Macron and other institutions of the Fifth Republic, the Montenegrin government delegation in Paris very well and convincingly explained to its French partners that the ratification process of the Accession Agreement with Montenegro cannot begin, even in the fastest possible scenario for Podgorica's EU membership, before presidential and then most likely parliamentary elections are held in France.

Let us recall that it takes time from the conclusion of negotiations to the signing of the Accession Treaty, and the signing of the Accession Treaty does not automatically mean the start of ratification in the Member States. It must first be approved by the European Parliament by a majority vote, then it must be adopted unanimously in the European Council, and only then is it sent for ratification in the Member States.

All in all, it is a procedure that requires a technical time of between six months and a year. So, ratification in the French parliament would not begin before the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028, by which time the games around the Elysee Palace will have long been over, given that the French presidential elections will be held in the spring of next year.

For Macron and the current ruling structure in Paris, it is very important that the issue of EU enlargement to Montenegro and Iceland passes under the radar and does not become a topic for political points. This primarily refers to the extreme right and radical left in France, which are against the EU enlargement policy.

However, Montenegro still has a lot of work ahead of it, as the forecasts for the EU enlargement policy are not rosy when we consider the possible results of the elections in France, and it will take the commitment of all who can help to obtain the necessary three-fifths majority in the National Assembly to ratify the Agreement with Montenegro. Otherwise, if a referendum were to be held - the president has the discretion to call one if he deems it necessary - we would be in big trouble, as the chances of ratification passing the referendum are minimal.

ECHOES OF THE TIVAT SUMMIT

Given the political situation in the region and in the EU, the priority is to complete negotiations with Montenegro, and this is the only certain constant in the Union's enlargement policy in the region. The big question is whether Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama will be able to deliver the required results in the fight against corruption and organized crime in a relatively short period of time. There are few, if any, chances that Vučić will choose the European path, just as there is a great uncertainty about which path the student representatives will take if they win power. North Macedonia is a prisoner of the idea that the Bulgarians have about themselves, while no one has a concrete, feasible idea to move Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo forward.

The EU enlargement to Montenegro has great symbolic value, but it does not bring with it any additional value, neither for the Union nor for the region. The entry of Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina into the EU would give another dimension to the enlargement policy, but we are far from such an epilogue.