A thought out loud about the future of the Montenegrin power industry

The immeasurable, crucial role of the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant (TPP) and the Pljevlja Coal Mine in the Montenegrin power system (EES) is best illustrated by the tens of millions of euros in debts incurred last year, a year in which the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant was largely out of operation due to its ecological reconstruction. All hydroelectric power plants, solar and wind power plants were unable to replace the missing amounts of electricity. A special issue is the fact that most small hydroelectric power plants, solar power plants and most wind farms are privately owned, with guaranteed purchase prices for electricity, except for the newest wind farm "Gvozd" which is the first in the state, i.e. owned by EPCG, which, although not very powerful, is certainly a result of EPCG worth mentioning.

This situation, I fear, is a picture of what awaits Montenegro after the planned, hopefully not imminent, shutdown of the Pljevlja thermal power plant.

True, at that moment, it is to be believed, there will be a significantly larger number of wind farms, solar power plants in Montenegro and probably at least one more hydroelectric power plant of higher power, possibly reversible, possibly at least one gas power plant. But, the question is justified as to whether all these sources will collectively have enough capacity to compensate for the production of the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant? I am convinced that this will not be the case or that, at best, the current electricity requirements of Montenegro at that moment will be met during part of the day, and that the missing quantities will have to be imported. Of course, this prediction largely depends on the possible existence of a gas power plant, one or more of them, and their installed capacities, while it should not be forgotten that the gas needed for their operation needs to be imported. Whether from a branch of the planned gas pipeline, or from a possibly planned LNG terminal, is irrelevant: our citizens will certainly pay for it. On the other hand, every gas pipeline has a valve that can be twisted, for one reason or another, about which we should not waste words - we all became aware of that.

Let me not forget the following: even when the Pljevlja TPP is shut down, its generator should inevitably remain in the ownership of EPCG and remain connected to the grid, then as a synchronous compensator which, in addition to its role in regulating voltage conditions, will certainly come in handy as a significant flywheel mass necessary for maintaining system stability. Such a mistake was, unfortunately, made with two generators from the Berane Pulp and Paper Factory, which, although much less powerful, could have been usefully incorporated into the EES with the same role and not end up as scrap iron, or copper.

Evil tongues would say that the negative performance of EPCG has to do with the enormous growth of new employees as well as, in some cases, possibly irrational business operations and irrational moves of the state-owned power company. I have the following opinion on this: I have always been in favor of EPCG being state-owned, like any other Montenegrin power company. However, having insight into the operations of CGES, and knowing the ownership structure of that company (state 55%, Terna 22%, Elektromreža Srbije 15%), I am getting closer to the opinion that in the case of EPCG, the ideal solution would be partial privatization or recapitalization. Not in a significant percentage, the state should certainly be the majority owner, but such a solution would largely solve, I hope very quickly and efficiently, the irrationalities in business, employment and many other local problems. I think the experiences of some renowned foreign companies in that area would only be welcome.

What do I want to say with this text? It is completely clear that the Pljevlja thermal power plant, according to the EU regulations that we are rapidly approaching and which we are about to enter, has no future. It must be shut down sooner or later, in ten, fifteen or twenty years, not only because it is a requirement of the EU but also because it itself meets the condition for "retirement". However, one should always have, at least somewhere in the subconscious, the fact that nothing is given forever, that opportunities and circumstances change and that the only fossil energy resource that Montenegro has, where it is the only energy sovereign, is coal. The question for geologists, of course, is - how many of these reserves does it have? As an illustration of the change in opportunities and circumstances, I will give a few examples here, three local and one global.

The first, local: who would have thought a few decades ago that it would be possible to efficiently transmit electricity using direct voltages and currents and that, in addition, Montenegro would be connected to Italy by such a cable?

The second, local one: who would have thought ten years ago that the Montenegrin power transmission system would have to install so-called shunt reactors, i.e. systems not for generating but for consuming surplus reactive energy? And that happened too. One was installed, but it is likely that another will be needed. Otherwise, we are talking about multi-million dollar investments.

The third, local, although it is also a global example: who could have thought, say ten years ago, that the EES would also need batteries for storing electricity? Recently, the authorities in EPCG have been talking about batteries as a solution to anticipated problems with peaks in production from solar and wind power plants. I believe that we should not rush into this, not run "before the money", bearing in mind the fact that, as far as I know, none of the countries of the former Yugoslavia have such capacities installed. These are new technologies that are still very expensive and experience with them in practice is only in its infancy. If at least one of the planned hydroelectric power plants is reversible, there will probably be no need for capacitor batteries.

Fourth, global: who would have thought that nuclear energy would flourish today and be declared a clean source of energy? Clean, yes, but up to a point, when it can defile and wipe out entire nations in an instant.

The following recent news speaks to how the ever-growing need for electricity is viewed outside the EU: the US Department of Energy, DOE, recently provided hundreds of millions of dollars in investments to modernize and restart old coal-fired plants, extend the life of existing TPPs, and equip them with systems to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

It has also initiated feasibility studies for the transition from coal to nuclear energy, as it has identified hundreds of active TPPs or sites where TPPs have been shut down as suitable (with existing power lines, cooling systems, etc.) for the construction of small, modular nuclear reactors. More on the numerous examples from Asia, which is currently leading the way in new, renewable energy sources, another time.

Just one more thing: the previously mentioned, planned hydroelectric power plants, one or more of them, first need to cross the threshold of tolerance of environmental activists and associations. I would just direct them here to familiarize themselves with the new reversible hydroelectric power plant of enormous power, put into operation at the end of last year, in the very heart of the European Union. This is the Limberg III hydroelectric power plant, with a capacity of 480 MW, near Salzburg in Austria, whose role as a “water battery” in stabilizing the European EES will be immeasurable. Detailed information about this completed project can be found on the Internet.

The author is a professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Montenegro