Mandić is more of a test than a problem for Montenegro

"Unlike the Ratko Mladić case, which has become a major European problem for Serbia, Mandić's statement of condolences to Mladić's family has remained largely local in nature. European institutions, excluding some members of the European Parliament and one or two EU member states, do not see Mandić remaining at the head of the Montenegrin parliament as an obstacle to the completion of Podgorica's negotiations with the EU. On the contrary, there is a fear that the possible removal of Mandić could have negative effects because it would cause delays in fulfilling the last, but also the most difficult, conditions for closing the negotiations," a well-placed source in EU institutions told "Vijesti".

There is no doubt that the President of the Parliament of Montenegro, Mandić, made a serious institutional and human error when he expressed condolences to the family of the finally convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić. Let us recall that official Belgrade, that is, the then President of Serbia, Slobodan Milošević, by signing the Dayton Agreement recognized the International Tribunal in The Hague and committed to cooperation and respect for its decisions.

Also, the fact that the entire Montenegrin state leadership, led by Milo Đukanović, as well as the then President of Serbia Boris Tadić, expressed condolences to Mira Marković when war crimes indictee Slobodan Milošević died cannot be an excuse for Mandić.

The fact that the Croatian Parliament and its President Gordan Jandroković expressed condolences to the family of the finally convicted war criminal Slobodan Praljak and held a minute of silence in Parliament is not an excuse. Mandić's wrong move cannot be justified by the fact that the finally convicted war criminal Rasim Delić was buried with state, religious and military honors.

Expressing condolences and paying tribute to war criminals are part of the arsenal of politicians who are primarily interested in poll ratings and power. On the other hand, statesmen, especially in important institutional positions, do not follow the nationalist sentiment of voters, but confront them with the crimes of people they believe to be “heroes.”

The death of war criminal Ratko Mladić has awakened evil spirits in the former Yugoslavia, and everyone, from Zagreb and Sarajevo to Pristina and the opposition in Montenegro, is trying to profit as much as possible from the move by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to allow the organization of a funeral with military, religious and other honors.

Paradoxically, the situation in Montenegro is not as tense as in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia, but it could cause the most serious political consequences, namely preventing Podgorica from completing negotiations with the EU and signing the Accession Agreement in the first half of next year with all the negative effects, including Montenegro missing the train to the EU by the end of this decade.

WHY IS BRUSSELS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBLE FALL OF MANDIC?

The European Commission, which is leading the negotiation process with Montenegro, is, to put it mildly, not happy with Mandić's slippage in the Ratko Mladić case, but they are looking at things much broader and deeper and are not losing focus on the main goal, which is for Podgorica to close all chapters by the end of this year or at the latest by early 2027.

"The fall of Mandić would inevitably cause political turmoil, from the most benign ones such as the time needed to elect a new Speaker of the Parliament and consolidate the majority to a political or even institutional crisis. Montenegro does not have the luxury of allowing itself to waste a single day, let alone weeks or months, on any crisis, especially since it is now catching up with the last deadlines to meet the conditions for closing the most important chapters. The ruling coalition faces several very difficult decisions, not only regarding chapters 23, 24 and 31, but also 33 and 34. These chapters will not be easy and will require a stable and strong majority in parliament," another contact in the EU, well acquainted with the Montenegrin dossier, specified for "Vijesti".

According to our interlocutor, in the final stages of Montenegro's marathon negotiations with the EU, the parliament plays a key role, not only as a legislative body that must adopt and harmonize the necessary legal solutions with the EU, but also as a support and pillar of the coalition government that will have to make difficult and unpopular decisions. In this context, the debate over whether Mandić is the legitimate President of the Parliament of Montenegro, whether he has the ethical right to continue to lead the parliament, as well as possible obstructions and blockades of regular sessions, could lead to a situation in which, as they say in Italy, we would throw out the baby with the bathwater (non bisogna buttare il bambino con l'acqua sporca).

Montenegro is in a race against time. If it does not complete its work in the first half of 2027, there is a serious possibility that its entry into the EU will be postponed indefinitely. Namely, we could very well have a new balance of power within the EU at the end of next year, after a series of important elections in France, Poland, Italy, Spain. And it could be far less favorable for the EU enlargement process, including Podgorica's position.

The European Commission is still tasked by the European Council to complete negotiations with Montenegro within the stipulated deadline, and Mandić's expression of condolences did not call into question either the position of the European Council or the determination of the European Commission to complete the work expected of it.

Regular readers of the "European Corner" know, but since it is necessary to repeat certain things from time to time, let us emphasize once again: the European Parliament is the least important EU institution (they have only two important powers: they approve the election of EC members and the seven-year EU budget), and it has almost no role in the enlargement process, not counting giving consent to the signed Accession Agreement. Statements by European parliamentarians have no political weight because those who deal with the Western Balkans, and especially Montenegro, belong to third-tier politicians in their countries or come from countries that do not have specific weight. Remember the former rapporteurs and MEPs who dealt with our region and see where they are today.

WHY THE EC WANTS TO FINISH NEGOTIATIONS BY THE END OF THE YEAR

The European Commission is aware that the negotiation process with Montenegro should be completed before the elections in France, that is, to conclude the negotiations, prepare and sign the Accession Treaty by the beginning of next summer. In working with EU member states - let us note that in the negotiation process the European Commission acts as, figuratively speaking, the lawyer of the candidate country for EU membership - EC representatives repeat, more or less, the same sentence: we want to complete the work that depends on us, and the member states, during the ratification process, can present objections and conditions to Podgorica for the ratification of the Accession Treaty, including the issue of Mandić as the head of the Parliament, as well as some of the unresolved bilateral issues with Croatia.

In other words, the EC wants to put Montenegro in an irreversible position, which is the status of an accession member that a candidate country receives by signing the Accession Treaty. After signing the Accession Treaty, there is no going back because Montenegro will not be able to lose that status. Then the only question is when Montenegro will become a full member of the EU, in a year, two, three or five. It is very important to add that, as the ratification process progresses, the pressure on the member states that have not yet ratified the Accession Treaty will also grow. In the end, if only one or two countries remain that do not want to approve the Accession Treaty for Montenegro, the pressure will be on both the EU members and Montenegro itself to find a compromise.

CROATIA IGNORED OFFERS FOR EU TO MEDIATE IN DISPUTE WITH MONTENEGRO

Brussels tried to indirectly offer its good offices to help Zagreb and Podgorica find compromise solutions to the disputed issues. However, Croatia maintained its position that bilateral issues should be resolved bilaterally, directly between the two sides.

Zagreb's position is expected and tactical because it does not want to lose the advantage over Podgorica that its EU membership gives it and therefore dictate the agenda and solutions. According to our information, the two sides are still not close to an agreement. The scandals that have hit the Andrej Plenković government are not in Montenegro's favor, especially the case of toxic waste disposal in the Lika region. At the same time, Podgorica could also be collateral damage in the worsening relations between Zagreb and Belgrade, given that Croatia's policy towards Montenegro is to a large extent a reflection of its relationship with Serbia.

The authorities in Podgorica are caught between two fires, Zagreb and Belgrade. On the one hand, Croatia is not very interested in whether Montenegro will be a member of the EU, a democratic and legal state, its primary interest is for Montenegro to be as little Serbian as possible and as far away from Serbia as possible. This could be seen in the reactions of Croatian politicians, from representatives of the government to the opposition, such as Tonino Picula, who in turn called for the isolation and implicit dismissal of Andrija Mandić for expressing condolences to Mladić's family, while remaining silent or relativizing the glorification of Mladić and the attendance of the leading politician in the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, and member of the Presidency of BiH, Željka Cvijanović, at his funeral.

On the other hand, the regime in Serbia is only interested in how to prevent Montenegro from entering the EU, and for that purpose, they are ready, through their political and media "avatars", to (mis)use every opportunity, according to the tried and tested Russian recipe, which has already been applied several times in EU member states: spreading fake news, conspiracy theories and so-called kompromat to inflame conflicts and tensions internally, but also with neighbors, primarily Croatia, if that is the way to stop Montenegro on its path to the EU.