Although the big news about the development of the crisis of the Croatian concern Agrokor is just catching up with each other, so it is difficult to judge exactly what will be revealed or happen tomorrow, it is impossible to skip a look at this affair in a neighboring country this week, especially before this company disposes and significant commercial and industrial capacities in Serbia, where it employs about 11.000 workers.
But more important than all that will be the answer to the question of how the Government of Croatia will deal with the financial shipwreck of Agrokor, because it can be a benchmark for other governments in the transitional Balkans.
In fact, there is no need to prove it, all governments in the ex-Ju countries have a similar ideological and political background, so they have "looked at each other" in the past few decades in terms of numerous systemic and ongoing moves. After all, during the first meeting between Vučić and Plenković in Mostar at the beginning of this week, Agrokor was an unavoidable topic of conversation in which the Serbian president-prime minister showed a lot of understanding for the troubles of his Croatian counterpart.
In all of this, one should not lose sight of the fact that (another) large-scale "economic defeat" is underway for our economic zone, because the foundation of the company, which until recently was practically fully nominally owned by Ivica Todorić, is shaking from its foundations. ran an annual business worth about six billion euros with the same amount of debt at banks and on the financial market (and in fact much larger if one adds to all this the "permanent debt" to suppliers of about two billion euros). These are large debts on our meridians that low-profit retail, which Agrokor relies on, could no longer service even with new debts - which were actually "cut" by unfavorable reports from world rating agencies at the beginning of this year. The creditors have currently imposed a receivership on Antonio Alvarez, who should carry out the "restructuring surgery" of Agrokor, while the moratorium on its obligations lasts, which was allegedly concluded between the creditors (banks and suppliers), with additional financial support from Russian banks (Sber and VTB). However, it is not entirely clear whether the "standstill arrangement" moratorium was really established by agreement, along with the replacement of Todorić's management team, because the Government of Croatia is not surrendering either.
When the crisis broke out a few weeks ago, the ruling coalition in Croatia immediately, almost reflexively, announced that they would not save Todorić but a company that accounts for about 14% of Croatia's GDP and employs about 60.000 workers (half in the home country itself). And how did she intend to do it - well, with a special lex, according to which the state itself would have the authority to take over the management of one of the "system companies" on its territory (it is rumored that such companies are considered to have a turnover of more than a billion euros per year). In this regard, the Government of Croatia, through state-owned companies that are creditors of Agrokor, blocked the account of that company and sent a law to the Parliament according to which, it seems, it can take over the management of the company, relying on a vague constitutional provision that such moves can be made "if the state interests". That law should have reached the Croatian Parliament on Monday.
Even in the Croatian public itself, this legal project was met with harsh criticism and many questions. The first is - how does the government intend to intervene in the crisis if either the debtor or the creditors do not ask the state for forced administration, that is, if they do not agree on this, and the creditors appoint a new administration, and the government is against that administration? The government ostensibly does not promise budget aid, but only offers forced administration to a private company - but how will it manage a company in crisis if creditors stop lending to a failed systemic company. The government, as a bankruptcy administrator, should sell parts of the company, but in Agrokor, all parts are connected by mutual guarantees, so cutting unprofitable ones would be impossible, etc.
In order for the legal project to have a better reception among the citizens of Croatia and in the EU, geopolitics was thrown into the affair - it seems beyond measure. The fact that the main creditors of Agrokor are two Russian banks was used to say that Croatia cannot allow Putin to manage the Croatian economy through its trade. Of course, this should have been taken into account much earlier - when Russian loans were taken unwillingly.
If the Government of Croatia really pushes through the law on Agrokor in the Parliament, it will not save the company without "nationalizing its debts", and it will threaten the further flow of investment into Croatia. This should be taken into account by all the governments in the Balkans who live by spreading the illusion that the state will protect everyone and everyone from the economic defeats lurking from all sides.
(New magazine)
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