A month after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, it became clear that nothing good would come out of his presidency. Unfortunately, the pessimists turned out to be realists: everything is really as bad as they predicted. The worst case scenario has now become - basic. All hopes that high office or political and economic realities will force Trump to start adhering to domestic and foreign policy norms should be dismissed as pipe dreams.
Realism requires us to accept a sobering truth. If the 45th president of the USA is faced with the choice of respecting the country's Constitution (which limits him through the separation of powers) or violating it, he will most likely choose the second option. The Trump administration intends to implement nothing less than regime change in Washington.
Sooner or later, the collision between the president and the constitutional system will lead to a major crisis that will shake the US to its foundations and, possibly, make the country politically unrecognizable. Trump's constant attacks on the judiciary and the media - key institutions that guarantee the accountability of the executive branch - leave no room for other interpretations.
Even if America's constitutional system wins, the chaos that a Trump presidency will produce will cause irreparable damage. Try to imagine what would happen if a major terrorist attack occurred in the United States during this troubled time. Wouldn't America slide toward authoritarianism similar to what we see in Turkey? Of course, one should hope that this will not happen, but the possibility is quite real.
In the sphere of international relations, for the time being, we have been spared a sharp break by the US with existing alliances and obligations related to them. But as Trump pursues his "America First" strategy of isolationism and protectionism, those alliances and commitments will continue to be at risk.
The constitutional crisis in the USA, the deep transition from globalization to protectionism, the new isolationist policy in the sphere of security, together lead to a serious failure of the existing world order, while there is no alternative order on the horizon. If things go well, then there will be constant instability in the world; if they do not go well, then confrontations and even military conflicts will become the norm.
Trump's relations with Russia and its President Putin remain unclear, not to say completely enigmatic. This persistent vagueness is particularly unpleasant for the countries of Eastern Europe, which cannot rule out the possibility that Trump and Putin will align their interests and create Yalta 2.0, dividing Europe into spheres of influence.
Undefinedness in relation to Russia is accompanied by a strange and continuous background noise in the Trump administration. Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Minister James Mattis confirmed NATO's guarantees in Eastern Europe; Trump's Russia-friendly national security adviser, Michael Flynn, stepped down. However, there is so much smoke about that issue that it is very possible that something is burning there.
In any case, Trump has shaken the existing world order, and the main consequences of all these shocks will fall on Europe. After World War II, Western Europe was given the opportunity to flourish thanks to important American promises - military protection from the USSR and free trade. In addition, the USA played a crucially important, symbolic role of the "beacon of freedom". Now, when the danger of Russian revanchism is increasingly looming over the whole of Europe, that role seems to already belong to the past.
Meanwhile, due to the serious injuries the European Union is inflicting on itself, it has clearly become too weak to find any alternatives to the current state of disintegration. If Europe's post-war security system and economic mechanisms cease to function or fall apart, as now seems likely, then the foundations on which a free Europe stands will become unstable.
In this sense, the first test will most likely be the second round of the presidential elections in France on May 7. The victory of Marine Le Pen from the ultra-right National Front will lead to the disintegration of the Eurozone and the European Union. France and other countries will suffer enormous economic damage, which will obviously cause a world crisis. If Le Pen loses, then today's wave of nationalism will stop (at least temporarily) giving Europe a second chance.
If that opportunity arises, it should not be missed. The European Union must urgently work out ways to protect itself from internal and external threats, stabilize the Eurozone, ensure calmness and prudence in the upcoming Brexit negotiations with Great Britain. Regardless of all the changes, Britain's interests in the sphere of geopolitics and security remain the same as before. Brezgit will not change the fact that cooperation is necessary for mutual defense, the fight against terrorism and the protection of borders.
Of course, the EU cannot agree to something that could endanger the continuity of the alliance of 27 states. But negotiators on both sides must be careful not to allow an outcome that would forever poison EU-UK relations. Experience teaches us that life goes on even after divorce. Our common interests will be preserved, and now the risk management produced by the new, impetuous president of America also becomes an interest.
The author was the German Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice-Chancellor from 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, which he led for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2017.
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