The history of European championships is also a history of surprises.
Sensations like those that happened at the championships of the Old Continent, such as the triumph of Denmark in 1992 (a team that did not even qualify, but entered instead of war-torn Yugoslavia) or Greece in 2004, and even Portugal in 2016, even though the "selesaa" jersey was worn by one of of the greatest ever, Cristiano Ronaldo, were never the characteristics of the world championships, where the favorites - the biggest national teams - usually celebrated.
Tonight in Munich, with a match between hosts Germany and Scotland, the 17th European Championship begins. Whether it will also bring a surprise, or whether the era of football romance, like the Danish and Greek triumphs, has long passed, will be known in the next 30 days, when top, best football will be played in the land of beer and sausages.
If you believe the supercomputer of the big house for football evaluations and statistics, Opte, the chances of a surprise happening in Germany - are in the range of statistical errors.
According to the analysis, the podium is intended for the best and the biggest.
And the first favorite is the national team that has never been the European champion until now.
The English, the finalists of the previous Euro (they did not succeed in their home, at Wembley, they were defeated by the Italians on penalties), have the best chance to ascend the continental throne for the first time in history.
Gordi Albion, finalist of Euro 2020 and semi-finalist of the World Cup in Russia 2018, has been "circling" around the trophy for the winner of the big competition for six years - has the time come for the players who play in the years of the best leagues in Europe, the Premier League, to finally break the barrier in the national jersey , it will be known soon. Only, according to Opta's assessment, the English have a 19,9 percent chance of winning the European Championship in Germany.
The chances of Gareth Southgate's team reaching the finals are 31,1 percent, while the chances of reaching the semi-finals are almost half - almost 50 percent.
France, the finalist of the World Cup in Qatar 2022 and the world champion from Russia in 2018, is the second favorite in Germany, the chances of the "tricolor" are only slightly less than England's (19,1 percent), followed by the host Germany (12,4 %), then Spain and Portugal.
The data that the chances of the current Italian champions to defend the throne are valued at only five percent, and the Croatians' bronze medalists from the last World Cup at only 2 percent, show how difficult it is to surprise in modern football and celebrate in a major competition.
Opta bases its estimates on the basis of more than 1.000 simulations in which all possible football parameters are included.
Then again, football is not just a game of numbers and statistics - it is played and loved for its surprises and unpredictability.
On July 14 in Berlin, who will the ball land on?
Bonus video:
