With an increase in personal consumption of 140 million and an increase in the export of goods and services by 130 million, Montenegro became the European record holder for gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6,9 percent in the second quarter of this year (April, May and June) compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Monstat Statistics Authority.
Almost half of Montenegrin exports of 400 million this year is electricity, with a growth of 45 percent, which was achieved due to a good rainy season compared to last year's drought. The growth of personal - general consumption of citizens is influenced by the fact that, according to official data, about 80 foreigners, mostly Turks, Russians and Ukrainians, who came because of the war and political crises in their homelands and spend their money here, are now living in Montenegro.
This shows that the greatest part of this growth was not influenced by the economic and political elite and their decisions and activities, but by nature and wars in another part of the continent.
That Montenegro has almost nothing else besides the production of electricity, which depends "on the sky", and tourism, the most sensitive economy, is also shown by the data on trade in goods.
After electricity, the largest "export" was realized in non-ferrous metals - aluminum. In May of this year, the aluminum plant stopped the symbolic production of aluminum at the previous 12 cells, out of the former total of 520 cells, so that now this former giant is engaged in the production of imported aluminum alloys.
According to Monstat data, Montenegro imported aluminum for 44 million and exported it for 51 million, so the actual export could only be worth about seven million euros. Two years ago KAP, owned by businessmen Veselin Pejović, shut down most of the production because it offered Elektroprivreda an extension of the supply contract at a price of 45 euros per megawatt because it was the highest price at which the production would pay off, while the price on international exchanges was around 150 euros at the time.
KAP conserved the cells for some future production, but electricity prices are still over one hundred euros per megawatt and unprofitable for aluminum production.
An even worse indicator of the decline in production is steel, a former strategic industry. In seven months, 40 million worth of steel was imported and 1,8 million was exported. The former owner of Željezara, the Turkish Tosjali Group, stopped two-shift production when the price rose to over 24 euros per megawatt-hour, so for a time they poured steel only in the night shift when electricity was cheap.
The owner of Željezara is now Elektroprivreda, which should provide recapitalization of the factory in the amount of 6,5 million euros, in order to restore part of the production and buy raw materials. Due to strict procedures related to competition and state aid, EPCG cannot sell electricity even to its own company at a lower price that would enable profitable production, and this recapitalization may be questionable, that is, the consent of the Government and the Agency for the Protection of Competition regarding state aid is required .
An even worse indicator of the decline in production is steel, a former strategic industry. In seven months, 40 million worth of steel was imported, and 1,8 million was exported
Also, the once strategic branch of the wood industry and furniture production is almost completely marginalized, despite many years of stories and making strategies about its restoration. The import of furniture for seven months was worth 58 million euros, with an increase of ten million compared to the same period last year, while exports amounted to 1,2 million at the same time.
For safer and more stable GDP growth, apart from tourism and electricity production, the development of several industrial branches, an increase in production and a decrease in imports are needed.
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