Preliminary data from the population census show the complete failure of the two-decade regional development strategies, the dysfunctionality of the aid system for underdeveloped municipalities and the capital, but also that hundreds of millions of euros have been wasted on these projects.
According to Monstat data from the December census, in the northern region, in ten years, the number of inhabitants continued to decrease by 20 thousand, or about 13 percent, in Nikšić by six thousand, or ten percent, and in the capital, Cetinje, by 2,2 thousand, or 16 percent.
The first Regional Development Strategy was written in 2010 and replaced previous partial plans with similar intentions, and the following year the Law on Regional Development came into force. Those documents enable various benefits for businessmen who want to invest in underdeveloped municipalities - lower taxes, cheaper loans from the state Investment Development Fund, more favorable conditions for self-employment from the Employment Office, higher subsidies and lower percentages of participation in projects of the Ministry of Agriculture...
Underdeveloped municipalities receive more money from the state budget and the Equalization Fund, a larger percentage of tax collection is diverted to them, the state capital budget takes over the financing of local infrastructure projects, the capital receives directly one percent of the current state budget...
However, all this was not enough to stop the negative trends of emigration from the north and other undeveloped municipalities. The list of the degree of underdevelopment of municipalities is almost the same as in 2010, except that they were joined by new local governments - Petnjica, Gusinje and Tuzi.
In the first Regional Development Strategy from 2010, it says the same thing that could be said now:
"The previous regional development in Montenegro was based on a relatively inadequate approach based on a planned economy, and it is characterized by the continuous migration of the population from the north to the central and coastal part of the country. Also, one of the negative consequences of the transition is the fact that the northern region is characterized by significantly less favorable economic indicators, which primarily relate to lower per capita incomes and higher unemployment compared to the other two regions. Paradoxically, the most real resources and comparative advantages are actually in the most underdeveloped region of the country".
The new strategy from 2014 recognizes that the previous one did not produce the expected results, which is why the emphasis is placed on strengthening human resources, competitiveness and innovation, and the scope of aid to underdeveloped municipalities has been increased, with the same goal - to reduce emigration:
"They start from the fact that the key development priorities at the national level are the achievement of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, in order to achieve them, the strategic goal of the Regional Development Strategy for the period 2014-2020 is defined. years, and that is the achievement of a more balanced socio-economic development of all local self-government units and regions, based on competitiveness, innovation and employment, which will be realized through a sectoral approach, i.e. priority areas of development".
With that strategy, it was foreseen that at least 68,7 million euros would be allocated annually to the development projects of the northern region, as well as that the main indicator of its success would be the number of inhabitants compared to the previous period.
It was also stated that, when the construction of the highway is also taken into account, investments in the northern region in the next four years will amount to an average of 361 million euros per year.
The new Regional Development Strategy was prepared in June of last year for the period until 2027. It is acknowledged that the previous one was not successful because the large gap in the development of the region was not reduced:
"The key causes of the above are primarily insufficient human capital, underdeveloped infrastructure, inadequate utilization of available resources, low level of diversification of the economy... That is why the purpose of adopting the new Strategy... is to overcome these challenges, i.e. reducing unemployment, poverty, migration from the north, and strengthening fiscal capacities of local self-governments, which is in the function of achieving strategic goals and the vision of the new strategy".
As stated, the vision is a better life on a human scale, i.e. a better standard of living in all regions of the country, based on competitiveness, innovation, improvement of human capital, digitization, decarbonization and social inclusion.
Last year alone, 50 million euros were spent for the additional allocation of part of income from income tax to municipalities.
Tourism increased the number of apartments
The total number of apartments was determined in the census - 396 thousand, by 82 thousand or 26 percent more than in the previous one. This shows that in the inter-census period, the number of apartments grew by about seven thousand per year.
The number of apartments is significantly higher than the number of households, which is 217.
According to this methodology, an apartment is considered any separate or separate living space, so that, in addition to the living space in which the listed household lives, it can also be separate parts of the house, country houses, cottages, apartments and apartments for rent or temporary stay of members households...
When you look at tourist spots, the difference is even greater. There are 10,8 thousand registered households and 34,2 thousand apartments in Budva. Compared to the previous census, the number of apartments increased by 11 thousand, and the number of households by four thousand. There are six thousand households in Tivat, and 15,4 thousand apartments...
Employment is supposedly growing, and people are leaving
If one were to look at the official data on the number of employees in the municipalities with the highest number of emigration from 2010 and the end of last year, it could be concluded that this socio-economic aspect is not the cause of migration, because in these areas there was an increase in the number of employees despite a decrease in the number of inhabitants. .
Thus, in 2010, 5,7 thousand inhabitants worked in Pljevlja, and now 6,9 thousand, in Bijeli Polje 6,8 thousand and now 9,2 thousand. In Nikšić, the number of employees has increased from 2010 to 16,2 since 18. thousand, although in the meantime they were closed or turned into small companies Željezara, Metalac, Bauxite Mines... In Cetinje, the number of employees increased from 13 to four thousand in 3,5 years, although the population decreased by a similar percentage of about 15 percent .
This "growth" in the number of employees may have been due to the fact that in the meantime there was a change in the counting methodology, because previously only those who have an employment contract were considered workers, while now everyone who has any form of employment is counted.
The growth of employees may also have been influenced by excessive employment in local self-governments and state-owned enterprises, given that there are few large private enterprises in these municipalities.
Growth of "immigration" in the least developed municipalities
The most underdeveloped Montenegrin municipalities with a development rate below 50 percent of the average are Petnjica (28 percent), Plav (44 percent), Gusinje and Rožaje (48 percent each).
However, according to the data from the census, it was precisely in these municipalities that the number of inhabitants increased compared to the 2011 census. In Rožaje, the number of citizens increased from 23 to 25,3 thousand, in Plav from nine to 10,3 thousand, in Gusinje from four to 4,6 thousand and in Petnjica from 5,4 to 5,5 thousand.
These data would not be logical if it is considered that citizens are moving out of municipalities with worse living conditions, in this case with officially the worst living conditions and the lowest standard in Montenegro.
The vast majority of residents in these municipalities are members of the Bosniak nationality, whose leading political organization, the Bosniak Party, was in charge of regional development in the past decade.
The reason for these "immigration" could be political and financial methodologies. Citizens could report to enumerators household members who are temporarily staying abroad during the census, but the enumerator does not have the possibility to check whether they have gone abroad for a few months or have been staying there for years.
In the coming period, the financing of programs for national minorities should be harmonized with the census data, and not, as before, that 80 percent of the money would go to the programs of one national community.
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