Montenegro has not done much in the field of demography and it is high time to start dealing with it in a serious, strategic and organized manner, said the Minister of Social Welfare, Family Care and Demography, Damir Gutić.
He said this at the conference "Demographic Crisis: Is Montenegro Planning or Improvising?" organized by the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and the Society of Statisticians and Demographers (DSD).
Gutić said that the issue of demography is not only a challenge facing Montenegro, but also a global challenge, and much more developed countries encounter many obstacles in managing the demographic structure.
"There are several ways to do this. None of them has proven to be perfect, but perhaps a combination of these methods should be used and that's how things should be set up in Montenegro," Gutić said.
According to him, Montenegro, as a young state, has not managed to complete its administration in all segments since its restoration of independence, in order to cope with all the challenges.
"So, in the area of demography, we have not managed to do much in the previous period, and it is high time that we start dealing with it in a serious, strategic and organized manner," said Gutić.
He recalled that there was no demographics department before and added that, with the appointment of the Deputy Prime Minister and the Demographics Council in 2023, things got moving.
Gutić pointed out that the first positive thing, when it comes to demography, happened with the reconstruction of the Government, when the Ministry for that area was formed.
"Because in a formal sense, the Government has shown that there is an area that was not covered and that we should start dealing with it," said Gutić.
As he said, the Ministry has therefore established a Directorate for Demography, which will deal with the analysis of the situation, regulations and comparative practice in the region and the European Union (EU).
Gutić emphasized that one department cannot cover demography because it is something that the entire Government should deal with, the Ministry of Finance due to the Statistical Office, as well as the departments of education, health and security.
"We must provide people everywhere with all rights and accessibility, in order to retain people and provide them with a quality life, in order to increase the birth rate," said Gutić.
He pointed out that demography is a much broader process than just worrying about birth rates.
"We need to have other things in place to create stable conditions for the family, such as financial incentives. We need to research practices and implement the best ones," Gutić said.
He said that the 2023 census data is an additional warning.
"We have experienced a sobering experience and it is clear that there is no more time to relax," said Gutić.
Koprivica: We are unable to retain our population
CDT Director Dragan Koprivica said that between the 2011 and 2023 censuses, Montenegro lost a population the size of Nikšić, Berane and Gusinje.
He stated that during that period, 22 newborns were born daily, while 20 people died, and on average, 22 residents left the country every day, while 21 foreigners settled in Montenegro.
"It is completely clear that we are not able to retain our continuously leaving population, to ensure the long-term stability of the overall population," said Koprivica.
He explained that Montenegro is facing a double demographic shock - a low birth rate and a mass exodus of young people, which is bringing the country into a state of deep demographic aging.
"All this is happening in a country that has not been able to create a seriously prepared population policy in the last 20 years. Either the political elites did not know or did not want to - the effect is the same," said Koprivica.
He stated that the formation of a department dealing with demography gave hope that something positive would happen in that area.
"And when the Demographic Council was formed in March 2024, which should play a key role in creating long-term population policies, we again hoped that meaningful work in this field had begun. However, reality once again denied us," said Koprivica.
Radojević: Investigate the motives for foreigners leaving Montenegro
DSD Executive Director Gordana Radojević said that one of the key problems is the size of the population, or rather its stagnation and decline.
"The key problem of stagnation is that our population is leaving," Radojević pointed out, adding that, although the arrival of foreigners is noticeable, it is not enough to record population growth.
According to her, another challenge is the fact that Montenegro is still an emigration area.
Radojević emphasized that it is also noticeable that foreigners are leaving Montenegro, so four percent of foreign citizens left in a year.
She stated that the motives for foreigners leaving Montenegro should be investigated, emphasizing that they are not only economic.
Montenegro, as Radojević said, lost 30 thousand residents under the age of 30 between the two censuses.
She pointed out that one of the key challenges is the uneven distribution of the population, as well as the fact that the north of the country has experienced demographic depletion.
"Of the total number of foreigners, only six percent live in the north, and 66 percent in the southern part of the country, which opens up space for price shocks that we are not adequately addressing," said Radojević.
She believes that population policy is not the responsibility of one minister or one government, but that a multisectoral approach is needed.
Radojević pointed out that any research on why young people leave the country will show that they cite the rule of law as the key reason, followed by education, and only then the economy.
As she said, it is necessary to create preconditions in order to be able to talk about population movements.
"After that, we need to focus on social policy, education, but also provide support to parents, not only in the form of economic assistance, but through a series of other policies and measures that allow individuals to make a decision about whether and how they want to plan their family," said Radojević.
As she said, the Demographic Council currently mirrors the Government and has 28 members, most of whom are ministers or deputy prime ministers.
"This speaks of its short-term nature, and demographic trends are all short-term," emphasized Radojević.
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