Creating economic dependence of countries where China operates is not "a goal in itself," but rather an instrument for expanding its influence towards Western Europe, believes Vladimir Shopov, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
He tells Radio Free Europe (RSE) that China has been implementing a strategy of patient positioning in the Western Balkans for the past ten years, using various tools to provide leverage.
"The riskiest for the targeted countries is the 'debt trap'. Montenegro came closest to falling into this political and economic trap with the Bar-Boljare highway project," says Šopov.
The highway was built by the Chinese CRBC, with a loan from the Chinese Exim Bank, the repayment of which threatened to plunge Montenegro into "debt slavery".
Despite this, China has remained a key partner of Montenegro in the construction of infrastructure works. This is accompanied by numerous donations to institutions, agreements in culture and education, student exchanges, study trips of journalists to China...
Official China claims that none of its activities are politically motivated or pose a threat to Montenegro.
The West helped Montenegro avoid the trap of debt slavery towards China
The Chinese company CRBC (China Road And Bridge Corporation) worked for seven years on the 41-kilometer first section of the Bar-Boljare highway. The completion of the work was three years late, the part of the route in the Tara River bed was ecologically devastated, and the contract was unavailable.
The section, which cost over $900 million, was built with a loan from China's Exim Bank. Before the first installment was paid in 2021, a hedging arrangement was concluded with Western banks to protect Montenegrin public finances from the currency risk carried by the loan.
When a senior American official called on the Montenegrin government to exercise further caution in dealings with China, the Chinese embassy told US officials that they should watch their dealings with Montenegro.
In 2018, the Center for Global Development from Washington wrote about Montenegro as being highly vulnerable and at risk of debt slavery towards China.
In March 2023, Chinese Ambassador to Montenegro Fan Kun called Montenegro's potential debt bondage due to its debt to Exim Bank a prejudice.
This is not the only arrangement the state has with that bank.
During 2010 and 2012, Montenegro purchased four cargo ships with a loan from EXIM Bank, the repayment of which was guaranteed by the state with 93,7 million dollars, and which is now mostly being repaid by the Government.
The ships were built by the Chinese company Poly Technologies.
The Chinese want to build a second section of the highway
Three Chinese companies applied for the pre-qualification tender for the construction of the second section of the highway, in the north, but that tender was canceled in early February.
Although part of the ruling majority claimed that the tender was canceled because only non-European companies applied, this has not been confirmed by the Government.
Then, at the end of February, a new tender was published on the website of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for the selection of a designer and contractor for the 23,5-kilometer section, the construction of which will cost around 600 million euros. The EBRD will support the construction with 100 million.
Shandong is working on the largest project in Montenegro
The Chinese company Shandong has also been engaged in the currently largest construction project, the reconstruction of the Tivat-Budva road. The deadline for the reconstruction of the 16-kilometer route, worth 54 million euros, was January 2026.
In addition, the ecological reconstruction of the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant worth 60 million euros is being carried out by "Dongfang Electric Corporation", and "Shanghai Electric Power Engineering" has completed the Možura wind farm between Bar and Ulcinj in the south of the country.
At the same time, the Chinese company "Shandong Luqiao Group" will begin the reconstruction of the bridge on Đurđevića Tara in May, which is financed by a donation from the Chinese Government in the amount of seven million euros.
This is a bridge that was built in 1940 and was the inspiration for the partisan film "The Bridge", which was extremely popular in China.
Šopov: Through the Western Balkans to Europe
Beijing is pursuing an expansionist strategy to increase its global influence and power, focusing on its immediate neighborhood, Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, and Western Europe, while the Western Balkans are part of a broader Chinese strategy, says Shopov.
He adds that the Chinese authorities are seeking to gain a significant position in countries that are in the process of joining the EU and that are NATO members, perceiving them as the EU's periphery from where they can act towards the union:
"An example is the focus on Serbia and the connection with Hungary, the railway route from Greece to Central Europe through North Macedonia and Serbia, and the Adriatic maritime route, which explains China's interest in seaports in countries like Montenegro and Croatia."
He concludes that creating economic dependence on countries in which China operates is an instrument for expanding its influence towards Western Europe.
According to the Central Bank, from 2006 to 2019, Chinese investments were around ten million euros, rising to 2020 million in 71,2. The following year, they fell to 6,5 and in 2022 to less than one million euros.
Along with economic projects comes 'soft power'
The Framework Agreement on Economic and Technical Cooperation between China and Montenegro, signed 12 years ago, enabled donations in the millions.
Hybrid vehicles, multimedia equipment for schools, medical and financial assistance during the pandemic, IT equipment... are part of China's donations to Montenegro.
Trips to China have also been organized for Montenegrin educators, employees in local and state administration, business people... Two Confucius Institutes, at a state and private university, promote the Chinese language and culture.
Montenegrin and Chinese higher education institutions have signed several memorandums of understanding on cooperation. The latest, from 2024 with Shandong Jiaotong University, envisages "the exchange of teachers and students, the transfer of knowledge and modern technologies."
The science ministries of the two countries will have 15 joint scientific research projects this year and next.
The Chinese Embassy in Podgorica did not respond to RFE/RL's inquiry regarding the amount of donations so far, the number of study trips, scholarships and other allocations.
Shopov states that China has changed its approach, moving from attempting to "capture" political and academic elites in the Western Balkans to a strategy of influencing local communities and entities:
"This includes cooperation with local authorities, schools, cultural groups... Cooperation with the media is also increasingly present, which indicates the use of soft power in the areas of culture and familiarization with Chinese values."
Media cooperation and travel
Formal media cooperation began in 2019 with the signing of an agreement between the Public Service Broadcasting Service of Radio and Television of Montenegro (RTCG) and the China International Television Corporation.
Then, the Public Service Broadcasting expanded its cooperation with the China Media Group, which brings together the most important media outlets in China.
The main media in China are state-owned and directly controlled by the government.
A 2023 report by Reporters Without Borders stated that China is "the largest prison for journalists in the world" with more than 100 detained journalists.
The organization's latest report from May 2024 highlights that China is among the 10 most dangerous countries in the world for media workers.
However, media restrictions in China were not an obstacle for dozens of Montenegrin journalists to visit China on study visits in previous years and learn about its development possibilities.
After the visit, the mainstream media published affirmative reports about the beauty of ancient buildings, technological development...
Several participants unofficially confirmed to RFE/RL that during their stay in China they were constantly escorted by the organizers and had very limited freedom of movement.
A new opportunity for China and Russia?
When asked whether the potential withdrawal of the US from the economic and political sphere in the Western Balkans would open up space for Chinese influence, Vladimir Shopov says that it would significantly expand the space for "third actors":
"New opportunities will be created for China and Russia. Governments of the Western Balkan countries could have greater freedom to engage with Beijing and Moscow, which could lead to unequal relations and projects similar to the Bar-Boljare highway."
He believes that Brussels and Washington should intervene to curb negative trends, because some Western Balkan countries are in NATO or are negotiating EU accession.
The coming years will bring major geopolitical changes and "the countries and governments of the Western Balkans will have to decide what their ultimate political goals are," says Šopov.
Bonus video:
