While citizens wait to see whether another piece of the state will be leased to foreign investors for almost a century, the main actors in the whole story are "throwing" billions at each other in public appearances, (un)intentionally confusing the public, and constantly bombarding them with numbers and promises that change almost every day.
Thus, in anticipation of the vote on the Bill on the ratification of the agreement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which relates to tourism and real estate development, we find ourselves in a situation where the main investor is "puncturing a bubble" worth 35 billion euros, which is the amount of investment previously announced to the citizens of Montenegro.
However, the fact that Mohamed Alabar announced publicly (archived) that there is still no plan or project for Velika Plaža (a locality most often mentioned as a subject of interest for Arab investors) and that the Montenegrin government and politicians "do not know what can be built there", did not prevent the Prime Minister of Montenegro Milojko Spajić from bidding with figures for the investment, for which he at one point determined that "more than 35 billion euros" could be invested.
The fact that Spajić spoke publicly about the aforementioned amount at least four times suggests that this is not a clumsy formulation or an incorrect assessment.
What did the Prime Minister tell us and when?
Na press conference (archived) held on March 21 after the Government session, the Prime Minister said that the Government had adopted a framework economic agreement on cooperation with the UAE, which expired in 2022, and that the scope of cooperation had been expanded and now includes tourism and hospitality, infrastructure construction, agriculture, innovations and new technologies. Spajić, responding to a question about the investment by the Eagle Hills company and entrepreneur Mohamed Alabar, said that a very important project was on the horizon, which would bring great benefits to the state of Montenegro.
Then, calling on politicians to refrain from "careless and populist statements," he also announced specific figures:
"If one man offering 20-30 billion euros is undesirable, what message does that send to investors in general," Spajić asked.
A few days later, during Prime Minister's hour (archived) held on March 26, speaking about the Agreement that the Government signed with the UAE, Spajić said that it is a project that even US President Donald Trump is fighting for.
"This is not available anywhere in the Balkans, President Trump is fighting for such investments, it was unimaginable in your time, 35 billion investments. I ask you to refrain from populism and bad practices that drive away investors," Spajić said.
Prime Minister Spajić presented the same figure at press conference after the 75th session of the Government.
"I think the number of investors who can come up with an investment of 35 billion is extremely limited, that is, you probably have two or three investors in the world. A tender is usually held when you have at least ten potential companies that could get involved. That is the first thing, and the second thing is that you would lose the option of having a state guarantee for a project like this," said the Prime Minister.
At the same conference, he also said that the Government expects local communities to behave responsibly, and that the ball has been moved to their court.
"Now the ball is in their court, let's see how they will behave. Responsibly towards their future, towards big investors and towards big opportunities. Well, let's see, if they behave irresponsibly, let them take responsibility for what they missed and let them explain to their children and grandchildren that they missed 35 billion investments in their municipality. Let them bear that burden," Spajić added.
In the interview Public service On April 8, the Prime Minister said that the Government is waiting for a letter of intent from United Arab Emirates officials who can guarantee the credibility of the investor, but also reveal all the details.
"In informal communication, we were told that the possibilities are great and that the possibilities go up to the 35 billion euros that I mentioned at the press conference, but that depends on us."
In none of the aforementioned statements, as part of the 35 billion euro figure, did the Prime Minister mention the potential broader impact of the project, the effects it will have on the market, or long-term projections.
Alabar: The amount of 35 billion - we are not considering
That everything depends on us - thinks Arab investor Mohamed Alabar.
But, there is still a slightly different calculation.
"The specific amount you are referring to does not correspond to the investment we are considering," Alabar said. Center for Investigative Journalism (CIN) (archived) responding to a question about how a 35 billion investment in Ulcinj is possible. It is possible, however, he said that the sum of 35 billion reflects the broader economic impact of the project.
“We are currently awaiting guidance from local authorities, the community and the Government, to better understand their wishes and how we can meaningfully contribute,” the potential investor added in an interview published on April 16.
At no point did he mention the investment amount of 30 or 35 billion euros in the context of investments, as previously announced by Spajić.
The minister denied it - we don't know what
After Alabar announced that his company was not considering the figure of 35 billion euros, the newly elected Minister of Public Works Majda Adžović she said (archival) that "the figure mentioned of 30-35 million euros (op-ad billion) is the entire project, not the specific investment of the investor himself, but what it will cause in the market."
However, on the same day, Following Minister Adžović's statement, Prime Minister Spajić said at a meeting of the Committee on Economy, Finance and Budget, where documents within the framework of the agreement with the UAE were discussed, that 35 billion euros was "a conservative figure and could be higher."
"Do I guarantee 35 billion? I cannot guarantee it, but the agreements allow us to attract these investments, and the potential is to attract over 35 billion... 35 billion is a conservative figure and I am convinced that it can be higher. I cannot guarantee for the UAE, but the potential is huge," he stressed, adding that the investments do not go into the state coffers, but into the economy and GDP.
“A short path from 3 to 15 billion”
Ahead of the vote in the Assembly, Alabar said in a statement to public service, said that the Prime Minister commented that if there are investments in - for example, Velika Plaza, over the years, according to his estimates, more than 40 billion euros could be returned to the country.
In the continuation of his address, Alabar presented various data, such as how, depending on the investment and the state's response, it could amount to a billion euros, that with, say, "three billion it could easily go to 15 billion euros", and that his initial idea was an investment of two and a half billion euros. He also said that it was an investment over a period of 10 to 15 years, and not all at once.
Spajić was later in the Assembly, in the late morning hours, said that the agreement envisages cooperation in industry, security technologies, aviation, trade, small and medium-sized enterprises, e-government and other areas...
Spajić stated that he was talking about this when he spoke about 35 billion, and that the MPs are not commenting on individual projects, but that all of these projects collectively amount to 35 billion euros.
All of the above confirms that Spajić did not speak about the effects of the investment on the market, as the minister claims, because he simply did not mention it in any of his statements when he spoke in the context of the amount of 35 billion euros.
It remains unclear how it is even possible to know the cumulative effects of an investment for which the potential investor himself says that he still has neither a plan nor a project (at least that's what he claims), nor is it defined what exactly the investment is, in which locations, to what extent...
To conclude, after everything that has been said, published, and bid for, the citizens of Montenegro cannot have an "idea" of how big the investment actually is and what its effects would be. All thanks to the very institution that swears by transparency every day, and which is the only one competent and obliged to explain it all to them in detail instead of "driving them crazy" with numbers that mean nothing to them.
The author is the executive editor of the portal Raskrinkavanje.me
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