There is no hope for the Pljevlja Thermal Power Plant (TPP), it will be shut down quickly, within two years at the latest, depending on the European Union's decision regarding the CBAM instrument (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), which will apply from January 1, 2026, assessed Professor Branko Radulović.
"This will lead to a large electricity deficit and chain reactions on our entire society," said Radulović.
He said that the latest developments and findings confirm that he was right when he warned about what would happen to the Thermal Power Plant and the Steel Mill.
"They didn't listen to me and we got into new problems. After all, as always. Honestly, I'm right, the 'leaders' are wrong, Montenegro is a loser. None of what I've been advocating for for decades - many initiatives, draft laws, declarations and resolutions, prime minister's and parliamentary questions, organizing round tables, educational speeches, professional and scientific presentations on many topics, I even wrote appropriate books, in vain. Because of that, I was persecuted by the criminal authorities, not only me, but also my family, and declared an 'enemy of the state'," he stated.
As he added, "unknown individuals and populists" in reaction to his theses also tried to ridicule him, cowardly "behind his back".
"To make the absurdity even greater, today these and others, trained hypocrites, 'take the lead', manage the last resources and devastate Montenegro, losing hundreds of millions and billions of euros. I went back to the nineties believing in the ethics and intelligence of Montenegrins, in their material potential, today I am convinced that we are predominantly a people without integrity, who have destroyed or minimized the possibility of progress," said Radulović.
He warns that soon, not even all the world's wisdom will help Montenegro become a decent state, even if it were an EU country. By the middle of this century, someone else will be the majority. We will have a deficit of drinking water, electricity, and food. Our national product will be primitive and we will be in great debt.
"We are sliding down the road of no return"
According to Radulović, idealistically, some kind of life can be achieved with numerous assumptions diametrically opposed to today's, realistically, taking into account the narrower and wider context, "we are sliding down a path of no return". How from party-toctation to a truly free society, how to professional institutions, to the revision of the criminal past, to the return of the kidnapped and punishment for sinners, how to stop this elementalism and superficiality and establish sustainable development, applying optimal solutions in the given circumstances.
"How to get from this madness and chaos to a functional state and consensus. Who to do it with, certainly not with ignorant usurpers of office, nor with the youth of the former regime. Those who would know otherwise are in the large minority. And time is running out quickly," he warned.
Reconstruction of the TPP "illegal and secret work"
Radulović believes that the so-called ecological reconstruction of the Thermal Power Plant is a "criminal, illegal and secret operation", which does not provide any necessary standards of protection.
He recalls that on June 29, 2020, he filed a criminal complaint against the leaders of the then Government and the Electric Power Company (EPCG) Duško Marković, Milutin Simović, Dragica Sekulić, Đok Krivokapić, Igor Noveljić, and Luka Jovanović.
He claims that the criminal complaint contains a lot of evidence that is being confirmed today.
"However, the duo Stanković-Katnić, and then Marković-Novović, did not react, despite numerous heated parliamentary debates that I had with most of them. Novović only announced, in response to my numerous reports, that he had issued orders against nine people. Due to the inaction of the prosecution, they are also to blame, as is the criminal group of the DPS," says Radulović.
It states that an analysis by the European Union indicates that polluted air caused by the operation of thermal power plants is the cause of the premature deaths of about 3.000 people, that it causes about 8.000 cases of bronchitis in children and many chronic diseases. The annual health costs for treating the consequences of this pollution are up to 11 billion euros. Sixteen coal-fired thermal power plants in the Western Balkan countries pollute the region and Europe more than 250 European thermal power plants.
"Does anyone wonder how many people and children die and get sick in Montenegro as a result of this decades-long negligence? That is why the Council of the European Union, based on the conclusions of the European Parliament, adopted a directive that provides for significantly stricter limits and target values for the most harmful pollutants to human health. By 2030, the permitted concentration of PM2.5 particles should be reduced from 25 to 10 micrograms per cubic meter, and nitrogen dioxide from 40 to 20 micrograms. The same is true for PM10 particulate matter and sulfur dioxide. With these limits, the European Union is ordering an approach to the limit values recommended by the World Health Organization, which for example for PM2.5 are five micrograms per cubic meter. The directive stipulates that citizens can seek compensation for health damage if it occurs due to non-compliance with European Union rules on air quality," said Radulović.
The European Union, he added, has also decided that taxes on carbon dioxide emissions during the production of carbon-intensive substances will increase continuously starting from January 1, 2026.
Taxes will discourage the operation of thermal power plants
He says that the price will directly discourage the operation of thermal power plants and cumulatively will be significantly higher than the price of electricity production from renewable sources.
"It should also be borne in mind that the tax will not apply only to exported electricity, that it will be variable and disincentive, and that over time it will be identical for exported and produced electricity," explained Radulović.
He recalls that he has been sending open letters, asking official questions to prime ministers and energy ministers since 2020, and demanding that the Agreement on the so-called Ecological Reconstruction be disclosed and an expert assessment be carried out in order to improve the technological process.
"But I only received vague answers or met with silence. I was particularly resigned to such an attitude because one of my narrow professional competencies is precisely large internal combustion furnaces, for which I have a recognized patent."
He believes that the request to extend the transitional period for the application of the CBAM environmental policy instrument, which was from October 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025, is highly immoral.
"How can we do this when our immorality and arrogance cause so many premature deaths of people and children and numerous diseases, when we increase pollutant emissions, when we have been driven by crime and selfishness, after an attempted fraud with the consumption of allowed working hours until 2020, illegal work since 2020, with a fraud called ecological reconstruction, deals around solar fields, deliberately delayed and incorrect legislation, the absence of process monitoring instruments. This, possibly, delaying the full implementation of CBAM would be phased until January 1, 2028, primarily due to the situation in Ukraine, the unprincipledness of Trump, Putin and China, the difficulty of connecting the markets of the Energy Community countries with the European Union market, the transit and import of electricity, and the liberalization of the overall market. Regardless of the decision, we will soon face an increase in the export tax to €80/MWh and more and a cost of €190 million and more," he said.
Valorization of hydro potential is devastating
Radulović says that the situation in other segments of the energy sector is no better. The valorization of hydro potential, he says, is devastating - building the HPP “Gornje Kruševo” and HPP “Komarnica” as run-of-the-mill ones is “stupidity”.
He believes that it would be right to build reversible and hybrid HPPs "Komarnica", with or without submerging Šavnik, HPPs "Piva II" and HPPs "Kruševo" with optimal elevations, as well as the reconstruction of HPP "Piva I".
"All studies have confirmed the superiority of these solutions. This should also be done with the possible valorization of the Morača watercourse. We also finally need to valorize our waters of Lake Bileća," he said.
Radulović said that all those who have a dilemma or a negative attitude towards the construction of large hydroelectric power plants should know the following - during this century, the water flow in Montenegro will decrease by more than 50 percent, there will also be a shortage for biodiversity, and by 2050, the Durmitor and Komarnica National Parks and the Nevidio Canyon will be endangered.
It warns that some agricultural species will disappear, temperature records will be higher. The only salvation for those "apocalyptic days" will be the construction of reversible hydroelectric power plants. In addition, the price of peak energy is twice as high as base energy.
"The last five years have seen a rampage of solar fields and wind farms by privileged investors and alleged strategic partners. Thus, we were left without approximately 1.000 MW of new installed capacity owned by the state, without about one billion euros in compensation to local governments, and without about 50 percent of the produced electricity at a price lower than 25 €/MWh. The region regulated this in a timely manner. In addition to all this, we will be left with the 'inheritance' of dealing with waste from solar panels and wind generators, whose lifespan is about 25 years, recycling is extremely expensive, and more than 5 percent of waste is environmentally hazardous materials. Huge investments in CGES for other people's interests are underway," he said.
He said that the epilogue of this bizarre thirty-five-year policy towards the energy sector, "especially the criminal deal of Đukanović and Berlusconi" or the famous arrangements with KAP, will be huge losses, an electricity deficit of more than 30%, and the import of missing energy worth several hundred million per year.
"With that in mind, Nebojša Medojević and I have processed numerous criminal reports, the last three - on February 14, 2011 against Đukanović and Berlusconi and seven people, on June 29, 2020 against Duško Marković and five people, and on June 29, 2020 against Duško Marković and four people. None of that. The prosecution is silent."
The steel mill has a perspective if it has a responsible government.
He recalls that everything he predicted would happen with the latest Ironworks arrangement has been confirmed by time.
"As with the arrangement with the Turks and all the previous ones, I was right. I called on the Chief Special Prosecutor to urgently review the business credibility of the company "8B Capital SA" - Lugano and Igor Šamiz and the terms of the lease and thus prevent negative consequences. Again nothing, so this is another of his sins. The recent arrival of the Slovenians who have reviewed the technological and personnel performance and the possibility of producing special steels is another confirmation of my belief that the Steel Mill may have prospects."
He believes that the Steel Plant has a perspective if it has a responsible Government. The world will not be able to do without steel as long as it exists. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for steel will increase by a third by 2050. Currently, production is about two billion tons per year and it is the main artery of the economy and the basis of high-tech products.
Radulović points out that the production of "green" steel, the use of "green" hydrogen and electricity from renewable sources are set goals for which huge funds are being allocated, whether it is state aid, funds or buyer associations.
"Various forms of this support are in the steel mills Thyssen Krupp, Arcelor Mittel, Blastr Green Steel, Slovenian steel producers SIJ Acroni and SIJ Metal Ravne, Rio Tinto and China Baowu, companies from the USA, China or Australia and many others," he said.
However, he added, global steel production emits almost one-tenth of carbon dioxide, with around 75 percent of steel produced in coal-fired plants that release carbon dioxide through chemical reactions. This fact also represents an advantage for the Steel Mill, which uses secondary raw materials.
"I emphasize again that the Steel Plant should be developed as an integrated production of 'green' steel with medium and high technological content, with a production structure of forged, structural and special steels, with a production volume of up to 200.000 tons/year. Such a Steel Plant would employ more than 1.500 employees. Solar panels and hydrogen production should be introduced in order to reduce the price of electricity consumed. Modernization and restructuring should be carried out through further ecological modernization of the steel plant, installation of another press, continuous casting and rolling mill. The investment value would be around 80 million euros, and the installation time of new equipment would be around three years, while the generated income would be over 400 million euros, it would be able to service obligations and repay loans for modernization. It would be desirable to provide a grace period of three years."
Radulović believes that the Steelworks should operate within the state-owned company "Industrija Crne Gore" ad. The question for the Government is "whether they want us to have the Steelworks as a locksmith department or as a large company."
According to him, Montenegro lost aluminum, bauxite, many lives, hundreds of millions, and what remained were pools of red mud that cannot be remediated even today...
"I was an active participant in that decades-long struggle for high-tech and advanced aluminum production and processing in Montenegro."
He recalls that in the 1990s, KAP had all the prerequisites to embark on intensive modernization and production in Montenegro.
"I worked at the Institute for Technical Research at Univerzitet at the time and was one of the numerous experts from Montenegro and the world who adopted new products. What was there, what were the projects, visions. To be proud of. However, Milošević and other warriors happened and young Montenegrin leaders were installed and the relentless destruction, regression and plunder of KAP began. This continues to this day, from oil for Karadžić and hyperinflation to the bankruptcy mafia and the plunder of high-quality bauxite."
Radulović points out that there have been many attempts to change the course of events.
"I remember the attempt by the leadership of the Liberal Alliance (LSCG) to hold a debate in Zeta on the impact of KAP and the red mud basin on life in Zeta. In vain, according to them, we were Ustashas. Or, the Group for Changes (GZP) that hired experts from Slovenia with a special vehicle that analyzed the quality of soil, water and air in Zeta. All the results were contrary to those of our Ecotoxicological Institute. Or, the results of a doctoral dissertation by a colleague that was done abroad determined that carp over 3 kilograms contain toxic substances in the muscles around the spine. When we printed a leaflet and held a press conference, we were declared enemies of the state. So many lawsuits, trials and press conferences for Nebojša Medojević and me. And then there was the large round table on the perspective of KAP that I organized in 2013 as the Vice President of the Assembly, where top managers of the best companies from the Balkans and Europe, as well as the leadership of the Assembly, the Government and KAP. Until the last criminal charges I filed on 13.10.2014. against Milo Đukanović and 31 people for all thefts at KAP and on 22.7.2017. against Duško Marković and nine people for the theft of red bauxite. As far as I have forwarded evidence to the Prosecutor's Office in several packages.
As he says, even today, none of those criminal charges have been filed, even though the government has changed.
"The few of us enthusiasts, no matter how right and brave we were, had to lose this decades-long war because, apart from Monitor and later Vijesti, we had the entire media darkness, the police, the prosecutor's office, the University, against us."
Conduct a detailed analysis of the red mud basin
When it comes to remediation of the red mud basin, things are clear, he says - first, a detailed analysis of both red mud basins, the concentration of pollutants in the surrounding area and downstream in Lake Skadar, water, flora and fauna, needs to be carried out.
"This analysis should also be confirmed by foreign laboratories. Based on this, a decision should be made on what kind of remediation should be carried out. If the pollutants have been washed away, then it will be easier to carry out full protection and recultivation of the terrain. If the presence of pollutants is determined, depending on the concentration, type and position, the remediation will be complex, and will even be preceded by the dislocation of the mud and conservation. The study should contain all data on the amount of red mud, hydrology, statics of the pool with and without rubber protection. After the study is adopted, a tender for remediation should be announced. The valorization of red mud and rare metals or construction raw materials is unprofitable. At the same time, the terrain should be remediated from landfills within the KAP area, the failed equipment of Glinice and the mockery of the barracks in the surrounding area should be removed."
Radulović says that reviewing the bankruptcy mafia would be the beginning of the rule of law's actions against the many criminals who robbed KAP and Bauxite and who are now enjoying the stolen money.
Former President of the Commercial Court Blažo Jovanić, he adds, is just one of "many sinners" in the Commercial Court.
"The road from the Commercial Court leads to the real owners of KAP and the red bauxites and criminals, not just to those marginalized people who borrowed money."
Radulović says that he has been in disagreement with governments on many issues since 2020.
"From the request to form a reform coalition, a unique program platform and agenda to personal competencies and performance measurability. That's why I created a transition program - 12 resolutions with numerous agreed solutions. Unfortunately, none of that, starting with (Zdravko) Krivokapić until today. Let me remind you that I was the first to promote vetting at the beginning of 2021 in parliamentary discussions with (Dritan) Abazović and (Marko) Kovač. Everyone wondered what it was. Today everyone is talking about it, but there is no law or practice, and old criminals are still making decisions for us and showing off."
As he added, the "famous" Development Bank, which he advocated for for more than 20 years, is development in name only.
"Regarding the method of borrowing as well, the government borrowed once and for the long term, and secretly, with the wrong timing, which cost us huge millions, instead of issuing bonds and bank notes, in the short term and on time, when I advocated for it. Discriminatory pensions and the reduction and abolition of contributions are absurd."
He points out that the Spatial Plan of Montenegro (PPCG) until 2040 is "a collection of nonsense and contradictions", which is why he resigned from the Revision Council, "so that even such a bizarre thing could be adopted by a significant majority".
"Building certain traffic sections with oversized profiles that will only be loaded up to 20 percent, not respecting procedures, without 'deep investments', predominantly from loans, without the possibility of using domestic cement, iron and operatives, with the 'support' of corrupt design construction decisions is terrifying. Thinking about giving airports under concession is evil intent or complete ignorance of modern economics. And a lot of other things I've talked about."
It would only be reactivated if a salvation government is formed.
Speaking about why he is not in public, Radulović says: "Honestly, he does not deserve me. I have narrowed the circle to the chosen ones, renovated the infrastructure and school in my tribe, started restoring the ancestral home in Komani, it will be something nice if I manage to finish it. If not, the descendants will."
He states that he is a member of the informal Sustainable Development Forum, which consists of eminent experts from the Balkans and beyond.
"I read one novel a week. I follow some of my scientific websites. I watch documentary shows and cooking blogs. I am a good cook, I cook sometimes, especially for my grandchildren who love my barbecue. The trim trail is an everyday occurrence. In the summer, Krimovica and Ploče. In the fall, some interesting destination. I refuse any public appearance. I don't watch the Parliament and political shows. The TV would die. I read portals diagonally... I admit, sometimes I think about what it would take for me to return to Montenegro. Where would I be today. But I know, I would take the same route again."
He says that many people stop him and ask if he is thinking of becoming active again because of Montenegro and the many things he knows.
"But no, I have a very bad experience, and I don't see an alternative. Only if a miracle were to happen, if a truly reformist and competent government were to be formed to save Montenegro, would I be part of that. But that won't happen," Radulović concluded.
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