Citizens and companies that repay loans with variable, rather than fixed, interest rates can expect a slight increase in monthly installments due to developments in the Middle East, which led to an increase in Euribor (the reference interest rate), which serves as the basis for calculating these loans and directly affects the amount of the installment.
"Vijesti" was told by the Central Bank (CBCG) and several commercial banks that offer loans with a variable interest rate adjusted to the most common six-month Euribor. that it has recorded an increase from 2,1 to 2,5 percent since the beginning of March and that this will affect the slight increase in the amount of loan installments, which are contracted with that clause, for the time being. "Vijesti" interlocutors also indicate that its further development will depend on the decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB), or whether its adjustment will be useful in the fight against inflation.
For loans taken out by the client with a clause adjusting to the movement of the six-month Euribor, the installment amount is adjusted every six months with its increase or decrease.
The Central Bank of Montenegro said that according to data from their register on loan amounts in Euribor, the increase in interest on the next adjustment from the loan agreement, based on the previous increase in Euribor, can be on average 1,5 to 2,5 euros, depending on the contracted maturity, while banks state that the amount of the installment can increase by five to ten percent at most.
The total number of clients in the banking sector who have loans with this variable interest rate is 3.007, of which 2.739 are individuals and 268 are legal entities.
Euribor is the interbank benchmark interest rate for the euro, and it reflects market expectations about interest rate movements, with a risk premium included. The six-month Euribor had been stagnant for almost two years at around two percent, only to rise to around 2,5 percent after the outbreak of a new war in the Middle East in late February and early March.
Director of the Financial Stability, Research and Statistics Department at the Central Bank of Montenegro Marijana Mitrović Mijatović, told "Vijesti" that the key factor for the further movement of Euribor will be the European Central Bank's decision on whether to increase it as part of measures to combat the rise of new inflation.
"The development of inflation, together with the state of the economy in the eurozone, will influence whether the ECB will maintain its current monetary policy or possibly tighten it again. In this context, a significant factor is the current oil shock related to the events in Iran. If it persists or intensifies, further pressure on energy prices and overall inflation is possible, which could then be reflected in the future policy of the ECB," said Mitrović Milatović.
She points out that after a large increase in early March, the movement of Euribor has stabilized, following the ECB's decision not to increase it further for the time being.
"The latest available data show that inflation in the euro area in February 2026 was 1,9% on an annual basis, after 1,7% in January, while according to preliminary estimates it reached 2,5% in March (compared to the expected 2,6%). Observed by maturity, the three-month Euribor (3M) increased slightly from around 2,03% at the beginning of March, to approximately 2,075% at the beginning of April, which confirms its close correlation with the expected movement of short-term ECB rates. At the same time, the six-month Euribor (6M) recorded a more pronounced growth, from around 2,13% to approximately 2,49%, which indicates increased uncertainty in the market," stated Mitrović Milatović.
She says that currently there is a moderate risk of an increase in the amount of installments for loans tied to Euribor in Montenegro, and according to data from the end of February, such loans accounted for 6,34% of total loans in the system.
"In total loans to individuals, loans with a variable interest rate account for 1,53%, while in total loans to legal entities they account for 12,12%. The total number of clients in the banking sector who have loans with a variable interest rate is 3.007, of which 2.739 relate to individuals and 268 to legal entities. The average debt per loan with a variable interest rate for individuals in the system is 13,5 thousand euros. If an increase in Euribor by 25 basis points were applied to this amount (how much the initial monetary tightening of the ECB would be expected in the event of high inflation), preliminary calculations indicate that the average monthly installment could increase from 1,5 to 2,5 euros, depending on the maturity," said Mitrović Milatović.
"Vijesti" sent questions about the impact of Euribor growth on loans for citizens and businesses to banks that offer them, some of which responded to the questions.
Prva Banka said that the increase in the six-month Euribor in the past period is a reality, that it will have an effect on increasing the amount of the installment, but that it is controlled, and that the bank's exposure is small because the portfolio is predominantly tied to a fixed interest rate, meaning that a large portion of their clients will not feel a direct impact.
They pointed out that the growth of Euribor directly affects the amount of loan installments tied to it, but also that for fixed interest rates, if the trend continues, price harmonisation will also occur.
"Regarding the increase in monthly installments for loans directly linked to the six-month Euribor, this would mean an increase in the monthly installment by approximately 5% to 10%, depending on the loan term and the remaining amount. It is important to note that there are no dramatic jumps, and that the increases are gradual (semi-annual) and predictable, and that Prva Banka will certainly offer mitigation mechanisms," the bank said.
They also indicate that the further movement of Euribor will primarily depend on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, because if inflation remains high, reference interest rates remain high or rise, if inflation starts to fall, there is room for stabilization or decline. Market expectations will also have an impact, as will geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, especially in the domain of energy, global supply chains and economic growth.
"For the upcoming short-term period (up to 6 months), the Euribor level is expected to remain at the current level, as it is a 'forward-looking' indicator and expectations are already included. In the medium term (6-18 months), we expect a slight downward trend, with stabilization at the level of 1,75% - 2,00%," Prva Banka stated.
Zapad Bank said that they do not have loans tied to Euribor and that its growth will not affect their clients.
Growth will be faster for corporate loans, and more gradual for retail loans.
NLB Bank indicates that the value of Euribor was stable in the period since May last year, and that the increase occurred after the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and oscillations in the energy market.
"Certain loans with variable interest rates, both for citizens and legal entities, are tied to the six-month Euribor as a reference interest rate. Its increase does not automatically and immediately affect all clients, but primarily those whose contracts provide for periodic adjustment of the interest rate (in NLB Bank this is twice a year). In practice, this means that these loans can have an increase in the installment only at the time of regular adjustment, in accordance with the contract," NLB stated.
They said that for legal entities, especially those with larger credit exposures or short-term financing, changes to Euribor can have a faster and more pronounced effect, while for citizens the impact is usually gradual and spread over time.
"The amount of the monthly installment increase depends on the remaining debt amount, the repayment period, the agreed margin (fixed interest portion) and the calculation dynamics, which is why the effect is individual for each client. Further movements in Euribor will depend primarily on the ECB's monetary policy, i.e. on inflation trends and overall macroeconomic conditions in the eurozone. Before the start of the war against Iran, the outlook for inflation was significantly more favorable, with expectations that interest rates would at least remain stable. The new geopolitical reality imposes caution; monetary policy makers leave room for a possible increase in interest rates, which will certainly depend on the level and trend of inflation in the coming period," said NLB.
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