Number of Turks halved after incidents across the country: Tourist arrival data indicates continuation of negative trends

In all types of accommodation in the period January - March this year, Montenegro had 169.419 tourists who made 1.079.484 overnight stays. Compared to the same period last year, the number of tourists decreased by 6,4 thousand, or 3,8 percent, while the number of overnight stays decreased by 41 thousand, or 3,7 percent.

The main reason for this decline is the drastic decrease in the number of overnight stays by guests from Turkey, which has been going on since the incidents in the Podgorica settlement of Zabjelo, and then the series of attacks on their citizens at the end of October last year, as well as the continued decline in guests from Russia.

This is shown by data from the Statistical Office Monstat on the number of tourists and overnight stays for the first three months.

The number of tourist overnight stays in the first three months accounts for about seven percent of the number of overnight stays for the entire year, and this is a small sample, but it is problematic that this is the third year in a row that shows a decline in the number of overnight stays, as the main tourism indicator.

A million fewer overnight stays in two years

In 2023, Montenegro had 16,38 million overnight stays, in 2024, 15,59 million overnight stays, and in 2025, 15,36 million overnight stays in all types of accommodation. This means that Montenegro has experienced a decrease of one million overnight stays or 6,6 percent in two years. This decrease in the past two years was predominantly related to the decrease in the number of visits from Russia, as guests from that country recorded 3,7 million overnight stays in 2023 and 2,4 million overnight stays in 2025.

In other words, Russians reduced the number of overnight stays in Montenegro by 1,3 million in two years, while small growth from other destinations compensated for only about 20 percent of their number of overnight stays.

Drop in Turkish guests since incidents

And now, guests from one country - Turkey - are to blame for this year's decline in the first quarter, as they almost halved the number of overnight stays. In the first three months of last year, they recorded 114.477 overnight stays in all types of accommodation, and now that number has dropped to 60.359, or by 54 thousand, or 47 percent.

In collective accommodation (hotels, motels...) in the first three months of this year, Turkish citizens had 15.615 overnight stays, while last year the figure was 19.434. The number of their overnight stays in private accommodation has more than halved, from 95.043 to 44.744.

The decline in their visits did not start with the new war in the Middle East at the end of February, but has been visible since the beginning of the year. In private accommodation alone, in January last year, these guests had 31 thousand overnight stays, and now 13 thousand, in February the figure fell from 27,7 to 14 thousand, and in March from 36,3 to 17,6 thousand.

This is a continuation of the downward trend in their visits to Montenegro since the end of October last year, after an incident occurred - a fight between foreign workers from Turkey and Azerbaijan with a group of local residents. This was followed by several attacks on property - businesses of Turkish citizens, and the Government then temporarily introduced visas for citizens of this country.

In November 2024, they had 36 thousand overnight stays, and in the same month after the incidents, this figure drops to 9,9 thousand. In December last year, there were 8,2 thousand overnight stays, and in the same month a year earlier, this figure was 37,5 thousand overnight stays.

The government abolished temporary visas for Turkish citizens at the end of December last year, or rather restored the visa-free regime, but considering the data for the first three months of this year, this has not restored the confidence of the citizens of this country that they are welcome in Montenegro and that they will have a peaceful and safe vacation.

60 thousand overnight stays is five million euros

When calculating tourist turnover (estimated daily cost multiplied by the number of overnight stays), last year it was estimated that the average tourist left Montenegro with 96 euros, including accommodation, food and other costs associated with the visit.

If we take into account that the average consumption is the same this year, the decrease in the number of overnight stays by Turkish citizens by 54 thousand in the first three months means a decrease in tourist consumption by 5,1 million euros.

Turkish citizens spent 630 overnight stays in all types of accommodation last year, or 4,3 percent of the total. If the 47 percent decline in overnight stays continues for the rest of the year, as in the first quarter, there would be a drop of 300 overnight stays. This would reduce tourism turnover by 28,8 million euros.

Negative trend set by Russia

The trend of decreasing overnight stays among guests from Russia continued, predominantly in private accommodation. In this type of accommodation alone, in the first three months of last year, Russian citizens recorded 370 thousand overnight stays, while in the same period this year, that figure was 317 thousand, a decrease of 53 thousand overnight stays or 14 percent.

If this 14 percent downward trend were to continue for the rest of the year, last year's total number of overnight stays by Russian citizens of 2,4 million would fall to 2,1 million, or by another 300.

A major additional challenge for this year's tourist season, apart from the uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, is the price of jet fuel, which is still twice as high as it was at the beginning of the war in late February. This has led to an increase in airfares, but also to the cancellation of some routes by many European airlines.

If 2026 were to be the third year in a row with a decline in the number of tourist overnight stays, it would mean serious challenges in the tourism sector, but also the need to review current tourism policies and strategies.

Big loss mitigated by growth from Serbian citizens

The large drop in the number of overnight stays by Turkish and Russian citizens of around 120 thousand in the first three months of this year was only partially offset by guests from other countries, most of which came from Serbia, where the number of overnight stays increased by almost 50 thousand.

Guests from Albania recorded eight thousand more overnight stays in the first three months of this year than in the same period last year, from Germany by seven thousand, and from Bosnia and Herzegovina by five thousand...

However, the total minus remains 41 thousand overnight stays in three months, which shows that Montenegro is having a hard time replacing the tourists it is losing from Russia and Turkey.