The announcement of bankruptcy in the Podgorica Aluminum Plant (KAP) and the increasingly likely closure of that factory, as well as the increase in VAT caused by the Government's multi-year, economically illogical policy towards the owners of the plant, could cause a drop in the popularity of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).
By reaching for the latter, in a series of unpopular measures, which directly affect the standard of citizens, the DPS will have a big problem to alleviate the impression that it is increasingly difficult to fight with the accumulated problems in Montenegro.
CEDEM methodologist Miloš Bešić believes that the current situation in Montenegro does not favor Milo Đukanović's party, which is why it is realistic to expect an additional drop in the popularity of DPS. Reminding that Montenegrin society is increasingly facing accumulated problems, Bešić claims that additional economic shocks only worsen the situation.
"Sometimes unpopular decisions can pass and be accepted by the public if you have the right way to present them. It can function in a slightly different constellation than the one in which the DPS is located. You have to be strong on all other fronts in order to amortize the negative measures, but I don't see that strength now," Bešić claims.
The decision to increase VAT to 19 percent, and the expected wave of price increases that it will cause, is just one of a series of unpopular measures that the government has resorted to in the past year. Last July, fees of one euro each were introduced for phone cards, cable television and electric meters, and after a few months, a crisis tax was introduced for net salaries above 482 euros. A decision was also made to freeze pensions, and the maternity benefit was reduced to two average salaries, although the DPS's intention was to reduce it to one.
The decision to increase VAT followed problems with the Russian owners of KAP and the announcement that bankruptcy would be introduced in that factory due to accumulated debts.
That the tax rate is rising because of the Russians, SDP president Ranko Krivokapić explained during the parliamentary debate, stating that the collected VAT money will go "over there to Siberia", although this did not prevent him from supporting the Government's proposal.
"There are noticeable negative trends when it comes to the charisma of political leaders, overall organization and potential. We also have negative trends when it comes to their overall reputation, as well as the opinions of the international community on the longevity of the DPS authorities."
Bešić believes that the problems in KAP and the holes in the budget are just a drop in the bucket of problems that Đukanović's party has been filling in previous years.
He claims that in the strongest parliamentary party there is a noticeable fatigue of material and a shortage of personnel, and that this could cost it power.
"There are noticeable negative trends when it comes to the charisma of political leaders, overall organization and potential. We also have negative trends when it comes to their overall reputation, as well as the opinions of the international community on the longevity of the DPS government," he believes.
Research conducted by agencies or parties in recent weeks for their own purposes also shows a decline in the popularity of DPS. Although in the post-election period it is usual for the ruling party to decline in popularity, a survey by a renowned agency showed that DPS is supported by 40 percent of respondents, which is the lowest percentage of support since public opinion surveys have existed, several sources confirmed to "Vijesta". Also, research commissioned by one of the parliamentary parties for its own purposes shows that DPS has no chance of winning absolute power in the local elections in Cetinje.
The results of the parliamentary elections in which the ruling coalition failed to win an absolute majority, as well as the narrow and disputed victory of Flip Vujanović in the presidential elections with a three percent margin, showed that the DPS does not enjoy the trust of the citizens as it once did.
Boris Marić from the Center for Civic Education (CGO) believes that Đukanović is finding it increasingly difficult to amortize problems in society, due to the poor economic situation and the increasing openness of Montenegrin society.
He warned that the Government does not have a vision of getting out of the crisis, which is why it is realistic to expect a drop in the rating.
"It should be taken into account that the DPS went through numerous crises during the nineties and remained in power, but the increasing openness of Montenegrin society and Euro-Atlantic integration, which are slowly breaking down the government's monopolies, are bringing the DPS closer to an essential political defeat," Marić claims.
Vešović: We are not afraid of difficult decisions
DPS spokesman Časlav Vešović believes that the new economic measures will not affect the party's rating, stating that the responsible government sometimes has to resort to unpopular measures when necessary.
He pointed out that populism and demagoguery were never features of the DPS policy.
"We always proposed sustainable solutions and made the best possible decisions that guaranteed macroeconomic stability. We are aware that it is not easy to present this to citizens in a complex socio-economic situation, as it is currently in Montenegro and throughout Europe and the world.
Thanks to the trust that we have gained and demonstrated among citizens over the years, the belief that DPS, through its role in the Government, will successfully overcome the consequences of the crisis and lead Montenegro to the path of economic progress is not diminishing", he believes.
The elections in Podgorica are decisive
Bešić does not expect the next local elections in Cetinje and Mojkovac to show a decline in the popularity of the ruling party, explaining that these are small communities that cannot be a representative sample.
Local self-governments are specific because, as he said, the party's rating in them depends on local leaders and internal organization. He believes that the elections in Podgorica could be decisive for the rating of DPS.
"In Podgorica, there is a structural problem of the DPS, because they did not win the elections in the capital, and they maintain power through an alliance with opposition councilors from pro-Serbian parties who are magically integrated into the government. If you look at the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections, it is clear that the DPS in Podgorica has a shortage of votes. That is why the Podgorica elections can be a message for the parliamentary elections", believes Bešić.
Marić points out that the elections in the capital could be a prelude to extraordinary parliamentary elections. "I think that the result of the elections in Podgorica will decide on the extraordinary elections at the state level. If, as a result of the domino effect, the privatization contract with A2A comes into question, then early elections are inevitable".
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