Non-consolidation of relations in the ruling coalition will lead to deepening of the conflict and possible early elections, said analyst Zlatko Vujović, stating that an escalation of the political crisis can be expected if all the opposition's claims about election irregularities are rejected.
He assessed that, despite the latest signals from the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), it is not to be expected that relations with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) will be fully normalized, without the return of that party to the local government in Podgorica.
Vujović assessed that, however, the new alliance between DPS and SDP implies the departure of Podgorica Mayor Miomir Mugoša from that position.
"Given the surprises he has prepared for the SDP, in the event of failure in the agreement with the DPS, the scenario of the cooperation of the SDP with the opposition in the upcoming local elections in Podgorica would not be a surprise," Vujović told the MINA agency.
He believes that the DPS is forced to make concessions in this situation, but that it is obvious that such a relationship is quite unsustainable and that they will have to significantly change it if they want to continue with coalition cooperation.
Vujović assessed that the ruling coalition's strategy is not clear at the moment.
"The possible consolidation of relations in the ruling coalition will need to be preceded by a redefinition of relations within the DPS itself. The current approach in this party will hardly lead to its continued stay in power," Vujović assessed.
He believes that the reluctance of DPS to face problems, closedness, building clientelistic, instead of programmatic ties with its voters, threatens to completely collapse their system.
Vujović said that the affairs that rocked the DPS do not reflect a change in its approach to governance.
"If the objections and claims of part of the media turn out to be true, and in many cases it will be difficult to disprove their truth, the DPS is threatened with the collapse of the system on which it based its power," said Vujović.
He assessed that it is obvious that some in the DPS did not understand that there can be no return to the nineties.
Vujović said that the DPS has the possibility to distance itself from such cases, that is, for the state authorities to urgently prosecute all those who participated in the commission of criminal acts during the election process.
"On the other hand, turning a blind eye, that is, blocking institutions from prosecuting those who committed abuses, will lead to the isolation of that party, and will be an indicator of its imminent departure from power," he believes.
Vujović said that he expects the opposition to persist in its allegations and accusations.
"It is also to be expected that the election administration as well as the Constitutional Court, which are under the influence of the ruling party, will reject all key demands of the opposition," he said.
Vujović stated that in such a situation, Montenegro is facing an escalation of the political crisis.
"DPS will not be able to admit mistakes and agree to the eventual declaration of Miodrag Lekić as president, i.e. a repeat of the election, and on the other hand, the rule of Filip Vujanović is leading him to boycott not only the institution of the president, but also the parliament by the opposition, i.e. an ever deeper crisis" , he specified.
According to Vujović, when the process of proving possible abuses takes off, the majority of citizens will be convinced that the declared president is not the one who officially received the most votes.
"Truth then loses its importance because the president so elected, in that situation, will certainly lose legitimacy," stated Vujović.
He believes that the possibly lost legitimacy of Vujanović can easily be transferred to the Government, which, as he said, necessarily leads to extraordinary elections, "that is, the fall of the current Government".
Vujović added that the DPS has far less chance of success in elections provoked in this way than in regular circumstances.
"Therefore, the DPS will have to urgently take steps that can get it out of the current situation. In such an escalation of the conflict, Vujanović's position would be meaningless and unsustainable," he said.
Vujović reminded that the tensions and intolerance between some of the key persons in DPS and SDP have been going on for a long time, and that the trend of escalation started with the dissolution of the coalition in Podgorica.
He assessed that the events in the presidential elections, no matter how logical, were still a surprise.
"The perseverance of the SDP on numerous issues, that is, their unwillingness to withdraw under strong pressure from the DPS, surprised not only the strongest party, but also the opposition as well as independent commentators," Vujović said.
According to him, SDP took principled positions during the election process.
"Just as when it comes to protecting constitutionality during the unconstitutional candidacy of Vujanović, so also when it was necessary to prevent abuses at polling stations," said Vujović.
Vujanović, as he said, may be the nominal winner in these elections, "but eventual success will represent a Pyrrhic victory for the DPS".
"Such a possible victory will further isolate the DPS on the political scene, reduce its coalition potential and intensify intra-party conflicts," Vujović said.
He assessed that the SDP increased its coalition potential, and that it smoothed relations with the opposition, whose leader, as he said, significantly helped achieve undoubted success, regardless of whether Lekić eventually becomes president.
Vujović said that DPS leader Milo Đukanović's attack on SDP on the night of the election definitely came out of affect, and not as a product of analytical judgment.
"The dissatisfaction of the DPS leadership with the election results was more than visible, so from that perspective one can also observe his harsh review of the SDP," stated Vujović.
He said that the "dropping of the ball" quickly followed from DPS circles, "because that party at the moment has no alternative to SDP".
"Softer tones from the DPS can be interpreted as buying time for some more decisive moves," concluded Vujović.
Gallery
Bonus video:
