Sociologist Srđan Vukadinović estimated that the percentage of citizens who speak the Montenegrin language in the population census in April will be higher compared to the 2003 census, while the percentage of those who will identify themselves as Serbs and Montenegrins will remain within the limits of eight years ago.
"Unlike the previous census, the Montenegrin language is today officially introduced in schools, in the education system, in public speech and constitutional documents, so it is likely, although it is not gratifying to forecast, that the number of citizens who speak the Montenegrin language will increase, while the percentage of those who speak the Serbian language will be smaller compared to the 2003 census," said Vukadinović to "Vijesta"
This university professor said that we should not expect "rapid changes" when it comes to national commitment, explaining that by this he means an increase of five or more percent.
"For example, if the number of Serbs were to increase by 5-6 percent at the expense of Montenegrins, it would mean that Montenegrins are numerically smaller and then a serious functional problem would arise - Montenegrins in their country would not even be a national minority, but ethnic group. I don't think that's possible," said Vukadinović.
Language and religion - intimate things of every individual
Asked what factors will influence whether someone declares himself as a Serb or a Montenegrin on the census in April, Vukadinović said that such a determination about language and religion is a deeply intimate matter for each individual.
"In a normal situation, in the situation of a democratic society, it should be a matter of organic need and organic demand of each individual. However, it is obvious that a number of citizens of Montenegro are subject to the influence of clero-nationalist religious communities, in this case the SPC. Such influence is exerted mainly on elderly or middle-aged people, people who do not have much education, who mostly live in suburban and rural settlements. This is a target group of that group that wants to politicize the census," said Vukadinović.
Influence of many factors
Vukadinović said that the rise or fall of a group depends primarily on demographic factors, ie on mortality and birth rates.
"In Montenegro, during the 2003 census, it happened that a nationalist and religious policy increased the presence of one group, in this case the Serbs, by more than 21 percent. Such growth is unheard of in European censuses and it is obvious that it is not the result of the influence of demographic actors, but the politicization of the census and society", said Vukadinović and added that the census is a cultural act.
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