"Đukanović, Vučić, Rama and Dodik are autocrats": Is the "Balkan spring" coming?

The Swiss newspaper Noje zircher Zeitung published an analysis of the protests in Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia with the question: Is the "Balkan spring" coming?

The author Andreas Ernst, previously a long-time correspondent from Belgrade, writes that the specific reasons are different, but that all these protests have similarities.

"The flywheel and energy do not come from the opposition parties, but from the society that appears in the demonstrations as 'civil society'. The hostile symbol that holds the heterogeneous movements together are the authoritarian leaders who have dominated the political scene in these countries for years. There is little that unites the demonstrators except desire. to drive the hated strongmen from power," writes Ernst.

He notes that the protesters do not trust the established opposition forces and that the protests have given birth to new figures without political experience but with charisma.

In Banja Luka it was Davor Dragičević, father of the late David, while in Serbia it was actor Sergej Trifunović.

"The possibility that those from the colorful protest can organize breakthrough movements is almost ruled out: Dragičević and Trifunović are ultimately symbolic figures of the protest, not their leaders. They lack ideological creativity and organizational skills - or, in short: the will to power."

"Fertilizer for frustration is very similar in all countries: it has economic and political components. The economy stagnates with high unemployment, the skilled workforce emigrates in large numbers. The political system is nominally democratic, but the control mechanisms that make up a liberal democracy are missing. The executive power decides on after all, embodied in the autocrats Vučić, Rama, Đukanović and Dodik. The parliaments approve their decisions, the judiciary does not dare to be independent. Most of the media reports under the hair of the government. Elections in these conditions are mere plebiscites by which the leaders periodically legitimize their power," writes Ernst. .

He concludes his analysis for Noje zircher Zeitung with the "confusion" of the European Union with the protests.

European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijančić denied at the beginning of the week that it was the "Balkan Spring" because the protests allegedly have completely different characteristics.

"And as always when things are bad in the Western Balkans," adds Ernst, "the spokeswoman resorted to the EU mantra that the region has a 'clear European perspective' only if it reforms further."

"A million reasons" against Vučić

Thousands of people gathered on Belgrade's Student Square this Saturday despite the freezing wind, writes Noje zircher ceitung.

The protests have been going on since December 8, and the reason was a "brutal attack" on opposition politician Borko Stefanović.

The newspaper adds that there are protests in dozens of other cities, that university professors and cultural workers have spoken out and that, unlike the previous series of protests in 2017, these did not stop after a few weeks.

"At the edge of the mass, the opposition Alliance for Serbia has set up several tables. There is an Agreement with the people - a multi-point plan agreed upon by the members of the alliance. Those parties are seeking the establishment of the rule of law and the presence of the opposition on national television. In addition, they want to appear on elections only when they are free and under fair conditions," writes the Swiss newspaper.

"People have stopped living here, they are just surviving," Martin Bežinarević, one of the official organizers of the gatherings in Belgrade, told the newspaper.

He believes that the Agreement with the people is a good thing: "The opposition may not be perfect, but everything is better than Vučić."

NZZ also spoke with Dobric Veselinović from the Ne da(vi)mo Beograd Initiative, who has a different attitude.

Regarding the Agreement with the people, he says that the demands are too abstract, that it is good that all opposition parties go out for protests, but that many of them have already had the opportunity to govern.

"They would rule in a similar autocratic manner as Vučić," said Veselinović.

One of those well-known faces is Vuk Jeremić, writes the Swiss newspaper.

According to the newspaper, he said that the protests give him hope for changes, that the opposition supports them logistically and financially ("But it's not about large amounts").

When asked about the diversity of forces in the Alliance for Serbia, Jeremic said that cooperation is not always easy, but that everyone has good will and tries to avoid topics on which they have opposing views.

NZZ writes about this: "That is why the most central political challenges were not mentioned at all in the 'Agreement with the People': the future relationship with Kosovo and the European Union."

The persistence of the protests "brings back memories of the XNUMXs and the mass demonstrations against the then strongman Slobodan Milošević," the newspaper writes.

Sociologist Vesna Pešić was then among the leading figures of the opposition, and today she does not walk - because of back pain.

"Maybe when it's warmer," she said.

Because, as he adds, he supports the protests considering that Vučić violates all laws.

"He ruined everything we had. There are a million reasons to be against this style of government."

However, Pešić says that the parallel with the nineties does not hold.

"We had a much stronger opposition then," she says, while today she does not see who could beat Vučić.

In addition, today there is no pressure from the international community on the current government.

NZZ states: "Vučić really still has strong support in the European Union because there they see him as a man who can successfully close the peace process with Kosovo."

Prepared by: Nemanja Rujević