Radio Free Europe's latest Most discussed the effect of civil protests in Serbia and Montenegro, which have lasted six months in Serbia and over four months in Montenegro.
The interlocutors were two political scientists - Đorđe Pavićević from Belgrade and Zlatko Vujović from Podgorica.
There were discussions about whether the protests shook the government in Serbia and Montenegro, whether the main result of the protest marches so far is that a part of the citizens got rid of fear and are no longer afraid to openly criticize the regime, why the majority is still afraid to publicly express their dissatisfaction, whether Vučić and Đukanović are afraid of protests and what kind of strategy they are using against the demonstrators, whether the protests in Serbia and Montenegro are weakened by the participation of far-right opposition parties that celebrate war criminals convicted in The Hague, whether could the protests turn into a civil disobedience movement advocated by some of their organizers, what is the attitude of Brussels towards the protests in Serbia and Montenegro, could it happen that Vučić and Đukanović use force against the demonstrators, as well as whether the regimes would in Belgrade and Podgorica they fell, when three hundred people took to the streets in Belgrade and fifty thousand in Podgorica.
Omer Karabeg: Did the protests in Serbia and Montenegro shake the government?
Đorđe Pavićević: They haven't shaken her in the sense that now she can easily fall, but they have taken away some of her support. Some changes have taken place - the situation has intensified, the opposition is boycotting the parliament, the problems burdening the Serbian political scene are clearer. The protests contributed to making the weaknesses of the government more visible. In some municipalities, such as in Požega, the protests led to the replacement of the entire municipal leadership headed by the president. Two more municipal presidents were dismissed. There have been some shifts, but it is still a long way from some major tectonic disruptions on the political scene.
Zlatko Vujović: Even the protests in Montenegro did not shake the government, but they disturbed it. And quite a bit. But they also upset the opposition. Because every appearance of a new force on the opposition scene, which does not belong to the established political parties, causes anxiety in their camp. Because, as much as it is in the interest of the opposition parties that the protests succeed, it is not in their interest that a new political party emerges from those protests, which would disrupt relations on the political scene in the part that belongs to the opposition. Otherwise, the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists is still stable, but primarily because there is no clear political alternative that would have the strength to threaten it.
Fear
Omer Karabeg: The organizers say that the main result of the protest marches is that people got rid of fear, that they are no longer afraid to criticize the regime? However, the vast majority of citizens are still afraid, if they were not afraid, there would be more of them at protests.
Đorđe Pavićević: As for those who are silent, it is not just fear, there are people who do not go to protests because of the positions they are in, because of business and family ties. Those people will never go to protests no matter what they think about the government.
Zlatko Vujović: Certainly, a part of Montenegrin citizens is afraid to oppose the current government, primarily because of the fear that they will not get a job or will lose it, if they have one. Because, party employment dominates in Montenegro and anyone who is not at the mercy of the Democratic Party of Socialists and its coalition partners can hardly hope for a job. However, a part of citizens has no fear. They are clearly opposition-oriented and are not afraid to publicly criticize the government. Those people go to the protests, but not all of them, because some of them do not trust the opposition leaders.
This is why there are many more people at protests organized by the citizens themselves than at those organized by the opposition. The more opposition leaders get involved in protests - the more the number of citizens who take to the streets decreases. In Montenegro, there is a much larger number of those who are critical of the ruling party than those who vote for the opposition. When it comes to the current protests, confusion has been caused by the role of Duško Knežević, the controversial Montenegrin tycoon, against whom the prosecution is conducting proceedings. Knežević gave the initial impetus to the protests by publishing a video showing him giving the former mayor of Podgorica an envelope containing, as he claims, 2016 euros, before the 97.000 elections, but then he showed political ambitions. Knežević himself organized the protest and got into a conflict with the organizers. This rather confused the Montenegrin public and probably caused the citizens, who supported the protests, to be disappointed once again.
The strategy of Vučić and Đukanović
Omer Karabeg: Are Vučić and Đukanović afraid of these civil protests?
Đorđe Pavićević: Vučić is certainly afraid of losing support. What bothers him the most is that the things that the government does are becoming more and more public, which undermines its legitimacy. Vučić cares that the protests do not spread throughout Serbia, because at the moment they somehow replace discussions that are normal in every democratic society, which are absent in Serbia, because a huge number of media are under the control of the government. The political discussion spilled over into the street, where people express their dissatisfaction, and that is what the Serbian government is afraid of.
Zlatko Vujović: I think the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists takes the protests quite seriously. First of all, because they themselves came to power in 1989 on the wave of the so-called anti-bureaucratic revolution, so they know that protests can easily result in the fall of the government. However, the real strength of the protests is quite small and they cannot threaten the power of the DPS for now.
Omer Karabeg: What strategy are Vučić and Đukanović using against the protests?
Đorđe Pavićević: Vučić changed his strategy during the protest. The first reaction was to minimize the protests. This was followed by counting how many people were at which protest rally, and then calculating according to different methodologies, in which the Minister of Police also participated. They tried to delegitimize the protests by claiming that few people participate in them. As the protests spread, as they gained momentum, the government's strategy changed, so the regime began to assign various labels to the leaders of the protests - that they are rioters, fascists, thieves, tycoons and what not. At the same time, Vučić went around Serbia and gave speeches leading a campaign called the Future of Serbia.
In the end, everything culminated in a big rally in Belgrade, which was supposed to show that those who support the government are incomparably more than those who protest. Vučić's campaign was presented in the regime media as a great success, but what happened on the ground gave a different impression.
Zlatko Vujović: Milo Đukanović's strategy is similar to Vučić's - it boils down to an attempt to discredit the protest leader. However, it turned out to be quite a difficult task for the DPS and its media, because the protest organizers are mostly politically anonymous persons who were not known to the general public, so it is difficult to discredit them. In the past, the opposition parties themselves helped the DPS. Thus, the Democratic Front announced that it helped the protests by providing them with logistics - loudspeakers and other equipment - which was a sign to a large number of citizens to stop supporting the protests, because they do not want to support the Democratic Front. They are against the Democratic Party of Socialists, but do not see the Democratic Front as its alternative.
Extreme right
Omer Karabeg: Are the protests weakened by the participation of far-right parties that celebrate war criminals convicted in The Hague?
Zlatko Vujović: The Democratic Party of Socialists has largely corrected its views from the XNUMXs. The DPS no longer discusses whether there was a crime in Srebrenica or not, nor does it discuss whether the LGBT population and their rights should be supported. When you ask these questions to the opposition parties, the answer comes that there is no need to talk about it now. It seems to me that a part of the opposition is still in positions that are dramatically far from the views of those who support civil society. It is understandable then that part of the citizens have resistance towards such political parties. Unfortunately, a large part of the opposition in Montenegro is under the strong influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, and this rather limits their activity and influence.
Đorđe Pavićević: At the beginning of the protest, there was a lot of discussion about whether such an ideologically colorful protest could work. Part of the people gave up the protest marches because of this. But not a significant part, because the right, which participated in the protests, showed some kind of readiness to revise its positions and to get closer to the classical civil right. How much she did it is another question. But that matter was not so significant because the goal of the protest was not to seize power, but to mobilize the opposition public, which is otherwise against Vučić. So the ideological coloration of the protests did not affect how massive they would be.
Brussels is no longer indifferent
Omer Karabeg: What is the attitude of Brussels towards the protests in Montenegro and Serbia?
Zlatko Vujović: As for Montenegro, it is difficult to assess. One gets the impression that Brussels is in favor of reaching an agreement between the government and the opposition that would lead to elections whose results will not be contested by anyone. I believe that Brussels would be happy if the opposition and the government made an agreement on the reform of the electoral legislation and on the eventual formation of a technical government that would guarantee that everything that was agreed would be implemented, that is, that the elections would be fair and free. I am puzzled by the relative lethargy and lack of interest of the opposition to put pressure on the ruling party to secure such an agreement. The ruling party proved to be cooperative towards the European Union, while the opposition, that is, part of it, did not honor what it promised, thus opening up the space for the blame for the lack of dialogue and agreement on the elections to fall on the opposition. Because, no matter how much Brussels pressures the DPS to ensure equal electoral conditions, the electoral law cannot be changed without a two-thirds majority, and that majority does not exist as long as part of the opposition boycotts the parliament.
Đorđe Pavićević: The attitude of Brussels towards Vučić has changed, but we do not know whether it is because of the protests or because of something else. The latest report of the European Commission is quite critical of the authorities in Serbia, while the analysis of the Research Service of the European Parliament warns of Serbia's shift towards authoritarianism. As for the attitude of the European Union towards the protests, Brussels neither encouraged nor prevented them. I would say he regarded them quite indifferently. He did not attach much importance to them, except in cases where the authorities overreacted to the protests. So far, Brussels has no problems with Vučić's way of governing, nor has he seen an alternative in the opposition that could replace him. However, the situation is changing. It remains to be seen whether the latest report of the European Commission will give the opposition a wind at its back to fight for better electoral conditions.
Civil disobedience
Omer Karabeg: Do you believe that the protests could become radicalized, that they could turn into a movement of civil disobedience, as some opposition leaders suggest? Could there be a blockage of institutions, a blockage of traffic and roads?
Đorđe Pavićević: This could eventually happen at the level of incidents, but not more widely. I do not expect any major civil disobedience and major confrontation, because it seems to me that the atmosphere is not like that. In addition, calls for civil disobedience exceed the organizational capabilities of the opposition and the resources it has. Because, if you start an action of civil disobedience, you have to provide some kind of protection to the people who participate in it, considering the consequences they could have. Action of civil disobedience is not only a matter of calling, but also of significant organizations.
Zlatko Vujović: The current protests in Montenegro certainly could not turn into a movement of civil disobedience. Some others - maybe. At this point, it is more than clear that the protests are waning and, unless something happens to revive them, there is no chance that they will turn into a civil disobedience movement.
Three hundred thousand on the street?
Omer Karabeg: Many believe that only massive protests can break the regime of Vučić and Đukanović. Would the regime in Serbia fall if, say, 300.000 people took to the streets?
Đorđe Pavićević: That would certainly shake him, he could even fall, if that protest had a clear articulation and clear bearers of dissatisfaction. The fact that such a large number of people are on the street would indicate a huge dissatisfaction, but this in itself cannot lead to the fall of the regime. In my opinion, a greater effect than a mass gathering in one place would be effective opposition actions that would spread throughout Serbia. After all, we saw that after the big opposition rally on April 13 in Belgrade, there was no significant political effect.
Omer Karabeg: That Vučić would resort to repression when he was seriously threatened with a fall?
Đorđe Pavićević: Vučić is now not directing repression directly at protest participants, but is trying to prevent them from organizing. For example, no bus operator was allowed to rent buses that would transport citizens from the interior to the opposition meeting in Belgrade on April 13. Of course, the big question is whether there will be an open conflict if support for Vučić starts to fall. In order to avoid this, there would have to be a dialogue and some kind of compromise. However, many people do not see this as a real possibility and shy away from a situation in which there would be an open conflict.
Armenian script
Omer Karabeg: Would the regime in Podorica fall if 50.000 people took to the streets?
Zlatko Vujović: They wouldn't, if so many of them took to the streets just once, regardless of the fact that in the case of Montenegro, 50.000 would be a large number that would be hard to ignore. If this were to happen again and again, if we had a continuation of large-scale protests, then it would lead to the collapse of the ruling coalition, early elections and the likely fall of the government. In the case of Montenegro, the scenario that happened in Armenia last year, when the government unexpectedly fell after opposition protests led by one of the weakest actors in the opposition scene, should not be ruled out either. He became the new prime minister with the support of almost ninety percent in the first following parliamentary elections. If there is a strong discontent, I think it could also happen to the Democratic Party of Socialists. But in order for something like that to happen, continuous and very massive protests are needed, not just one, even fifty thousand.
Omer Karabeg: Would Đukanović resort to force even in that case?
Zlatko Vujović: If the protests were peaceful, I don't think anyone in the Montenegrin government would think of trying to stop them by force. However, if the organizers of the protests would allow them to become violent, that is, if they would try to take over institutions by force, the space would open up for the legitimate use of force, which would probably result in the collapse of the protests themselves. However, we saw in 1989 in the case of the "anti-bureaucratic revolution" that the fact that the police broke up the protests did not mean that they would not be massive again and would not lead to the fall of the government. I think that nobody in Montenegro believes that open repression, whatever it may be, can be maintained in power.
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