Compared to the region, Montenegro traditionally records a high turnout in elections, but the fear of getting sick could reduce the number of voters on August 30, as happened recently in Serbia, Croatia and North Macedonia, according to analysts.
In Croatia, in the elections on July 5, as reported by local media, a record low turnout was recorded, that is, 46,85 percent of citizens exercised their right to vote.
In North Macedonia, slightly more than 50 percent of voters went to the polls last week.
In Serbia, the turnout was 48 percent.
Lower turnout, according to "Vijesti" interlocutors, goes to the hands of the government, that is, to parties with a more disciplined membership.
"Elections in a high-risk situation increase the chances of parties that have a more disciplined membership, and they are also in favor of the authorities if there is a belief that they are relatively successful in fighting the coronavirus and can distribute some funds that offer people some kind of security," said a professor at the Faculty of Political Science science in Belgrade Zoran Stojiljković.
He adds that the lower voter turnout in Serbia can be linked to citizen dissatisfaction, the absence of social and political dialogue, the disunity of the opposition and growing distrust of the statements and actions of the expert staff that culminated after the elections.
Political analyst from Croatia Krešimir Macan says that, if Croatia's experience is taken into account, it is to be expected that the number of voters in Montenegro will be somewhat lower, but that depends on the campaign and the virus itself.
"Those who think that their vote can change something will come out, while the rest will stay at home, both because of the lack of an alternative and because of the virus," said Macan.
Macedonian political analyst and journalist Aleksandar Srbinovski says that the turnout in his country was significantly lower than usual, which was expected.
"In North Macedonia, slightly more than 50 percent of voters went to the elections. However, this is not new, because our country has been recording a trend of decreasing turnout for years due to citizens' lack of motivation to support parliamentary parties, and at the same time due to their inability to motivate voters. Another atypical trend was noted in Macedonia - that the number of representatives of the two largest parties, VMRO DPMNE and SDMS, is significantly lower compared to any election before this pandemic. "Many connoisseurs of the political situation in the country interpret this as a result and a kind of punishment for the bad policies that these two parties have been implementing for a couple of decades since the country's independence," says Srbinovski.
He believes that the turnout will be reduced in the elections on August 30 in Montenegro as well.
"I believe that the democratic capacity of voters in Montenegro is traditionally high, perhaps even higher than in other countries of the region, but I predict that a similar situation will prevail in your country as in Serbia, Croatia and Macedonia... The fear of infection is great, and realistic, so there's no getting around it. The elections were no different from the Balkans, for example, in France or Austria, but the state must continue to function and act normally despite the pandemic."
Srbinovski says that he does not see why the people of Montenegro should not go to the polls, if the measures to protect against the spread of the virus are respected, if there is a good prevention protocol and if the health authorities approve the process.
"I think that, unfortunately, life with the coronavirus is a reality and it will continue for a long time. Montenegro, like Macedonia, does not have the luxury of not conducting elections of any caliber because it is a small country with a weak economy. Elections are the only way out for the democratically elected authorities to gain legitimacy and to gain legitimacy after the vote, which is a strong motive to implement policies to improve the state of the economy, tourism, and the like, which were dealt a terrible blow by the pandemic."
Stojiljković states that the turnout in the elections in Serbia on June 21 was lower than usual, even below half (48 percent), with 5 percent of invalid votes, but that this can only be partially attributed to the threat of the pandemic, and more to citizens' dissatisfaction with the absence of social and political dialogue, disunity of the opposition and growing mistrust towards the statements and actions of the expert staff, which culminated after the elections.
"Finally, the government itself is not satisfied with the results because we got a parliament without opposition, a society without dialogue and protests with fake clashes between militant groups and the police, during which peaceful protesters are arrested."
The coalition Aleksandar Vučić - for our children, gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party, won a convincing victory, and only two other electoral lists crossed the electoral threshold - the Coalition of the Socialist Party of Serbia and United Serbia and the list of Aleksandar Šapić - victory for Serbia.
Part of the opposition parties boycotted the elections.
One of the most convincing victories of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, took place in Croatia. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) experienced an electoral disaster, whose leader Davor Bernardić announced the possibility of withdrawing.
Krešimir Macan says that the last elections in Croatia have shown that elections can be held properly and legally in the conditions of the coronavirus pandemic with the implementation of the necessary protection measures.
"The elections took place in an orderly manner and without objections, with a repeat of the elections in only one polling station. No infection was recorded in any way caused by the elections. However, the coronavirus pandemic definitely affects the course of the campaign itself, as well as the turnout. In Croatia, the turnout was 6 percentage points lower than in the 2016 elections, which is about 200.000 fewer voters. Some didn't go out because of a bad campaign that didn't motivate them, but some stayed at home in fear of corona - both the elderly who need to be more careful, and others who simply didn't want to risk it," explains Macan. In addition, as he adds, the topic of the fight against the virus can overshadow all others and, depending on the results, can be a plus or minus for the ruling party.
"We have to learn to live with the virus and hold elections in such conditions. We see them being held all over the world as soon as the situation is as much under control as possible. Of course, if it is possible to ensure a fair and legitimate vote for all citizens, because in fear of the corona, voters of all parties will not come out equally, because the virus does not choose by party membership or sympathies."
The key is for epidemiologists to assess risk without the interference of politics
Stojiljković says that, when it comes to Montenegro, the key thing is for epidemiologists to assess the level of risk and all necessary protective procedures during August without the interference of politics.
"People's lives are above all government and political interest. Look at Serbia: there is, but after the election there are no funds and aid packages, the virus is under control, then the peak again. I am afraid that in that climate, the elections in Montenegro will once again be dominated by personal hatreds and fueling of identity disputes and conflicts, in which, as a rule, democracy suffers, instead of key issues. Haven't Montenegro and Serbia fallen to the level of hybrid regimes or just simulated democracies?" asked Stojiljković
Turnout is traditionally around 70 percent
The parliamentary elections scheduled for August 30 will be the 11th since the introduction of multi-partyism in Montenegro, and the fifth since the restoration of independence in 2006. According to the data of the State Election Commission, 2006 voters (about 345.757 percent) voted in the 71 parliamentary elections in Montenegro. ), in 2009, 329.819 (66 percent), in 2012, 362.714 (70 percent), and in 2016, 388.220 (73 percent).
The first multi-party parliamentary elections were held after the AB revolution in December 1990 and were won by the Union of Communists of Montenegro (SKCG), which later changed its name to the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). That party won all subsequent elections, and each time the opposition accused them of theft and abuse
Macedonians voted for three days, infected on the first - at home
North Macedonia, badly affected by the coronavirus pandemic, entered the elections from the longest state of emergency and the strictest measures in the region and determined a different way of voting compared to neighboring countries. Three days of voting have been set - on Monday, the right to vote was used by those infected with the corona virus who applied for the opportunity to be visited in isolation, under full protective equipment, by members of the polling committees reinforced by medical workers. On Tuesday, the old, infirm and prisoners voted, while on Wednesday all other citizens could exercise their right to vote.
Former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and his Social Democrats (SDMS) narrowly won the elections.
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