According to research by the De facto agency, the largest number of citizens, when offered the opportunity to support an individual candidacy and any name from the list, choose to support the holder of the list, reports Dan.
In the survey, which Dan had an insight into, the leaders of the governing alliances Zdravko Krivokapić, Aleksa Bečić and Dritan Abazović received by far the most support. Also, DPS list holder Duško Marković and SD leader Ivan Brajović.
The research was conducted with the aim of comparing the allocation of mandates that resulted from the use of the closed-list system in the parliamentary elections on August 30 with the hypothetical situation of the allocation of mandates using the open-list system.
According to the survey, the first choice of SD voters is Ivan Brajović, who was supported by 57,7 percent, then Damir Šehović 24,6 percent and then Boris Mugoša 6,9 percent.
Of the voters of that list, 4,5 percent answered that they would not support anyone.
As for the Bosniak Party, it is interesting that the most voters of that party would support Ervin Ibrahimović (47,9 percent), followed by Sulj Mustafić (24 percent). In third place is Adnan Muhović, who was supported by 4,6 percent of respondents, reported Dan.
As for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), most respondents who supported that list (55,6 percent) support Ranko Krivokapić.
In second place is Raško Konjević (14,2 percent), and in third place is Draginja Vuksanović Stanković, the holder of the list in the last election, who was supported by 12,2 percent. Over 18 percent of respondents would not vote for anyone individually.
When it comes to the "Black on White" coalition, the majority of respondents (78,2 percent) supported the holder of that list, Dritan Abazović, followed by Srđan Pavićević (7,7 percent) and Bozena Jelušić, who is supported by 3,4 percent of respondents.
Regarding the "Unanimous" coalition, 75,6 percent support Fatmir Đeka, and 24,4 percent support Mehmet Zenka.
As for the Democratic Party of Socialists, most respondents who support that party would support the list holder Duško Marković (64,8 percent).
In second place is Branimir Gvozdenović (4,7 percent) and Milutin Simović (3,8 percent).
When it comes to the coalition "For the future of Montenegro", the most respondents, 65,5 percent, supported Zdravko Krivokapić.
In second place is Dragoslav Šćekić (7,2 percent) and in third place is Andrija Mandić (5,8 percent). In fourth place is Nebojša Medojević (4,9 percent).
Regarding the Albanian list, the most respondents would support Nik Đeljošaj 50,4 percent and then Iber Hoti 28,8 percent.
According to the survey, when it comes to the paper "Peace is our nation", the most respondents would support Aleksa Bečić 76,6 percent, then Miodrag Lekić 5,9 percent, then Zdenka Popović (4,8 percent) and Dragan Krapović (3,7 percent).
According to the De facto agency, a significant number of respondents, even when offered any name from the list, choose to support the incumbent. The exception, as stated, is the SDP, whose list holder received just over 12 percent of support.
As stated by the De facto agency, the official final results of the elections reflected on August 30 in the part of the number of mandates won by each individual list were used to display the distribution of mandates by closed lists.
"Data collected through a nationally representative survey of public opinion was used to display the schedule of mandates according to open lists," the agency announced.
As they said, the research design was very simple.
"After the election, respondents who were selected from a representative sample at the level of Montenegro (1.010 respondents) were asked who they voted for in the previously held elections. Possible options included all verified electoral lists displayed in order as a summary verified electoral list, as well as the options "I inserted an invalid ballot", "I did not vote", "I do not have the right to vote" and "I refuse to answer". Those respondents who chose one of the confirmed lists offered were then forwarded to the question "If you could vote for one person from the list you voted for, who would it be", after which that respondent was offered only the list he chose and on it the names of the candidates in the order in which they were placed in the original confirmed list of that party or coalition. The last option offered was "I would not vote for anyone individually". That question was supposed to identify the first preferential vote of each respondent," the research states.
As explained, even when offered to choose any candidate within the list, most respondents choose the first name on the list.
"Of all those who expressed their preference on the open list, as many as 68 percent chose the holder of the list. The exceptions are the SDP voters, where only 12,2 percent of those who voted for the SDP list voted for the list holder, and the Bosniak Party, where 47,9 percent of the voters of that party voted for the list holder. In all other cases, a significant majority "circles" the first name on the list", explained the agency.
The research was conducted in September on a sample of 1.100 respondents, and was created within the "Montenegrin Social Science Lab" project, which is implemented by "De facto consultants", with the support of the European Union and the Ministry of Science of Montenegro.
The gender of the voter does not play a big role
As the research claims, of those who claim to have gone to the polls and voted with a valid ballot, 91,7 percent of them voted for a candidate on an open list, and only 4,8 percent for a female candidate (the rest chose the option "I would not vote for who individually").
"There are no statistically significant differences in the percentage of men and women who choose women on the list. The number of mandates that candidates of the less represented gender would receive would be the same if the mandates that were not allocated were preferentially allocated by list, and lower in percentage compared to the preferentially distributed mandates. Namely, on the basis of the preferential vote, it was possible to distribute 63 out of 81 mandates. Out of those 63 mandates for which respondents expressed a preference, one in four would be given to a female person. This is possible even though 91,7 percent of respondents choose a male candidate because the majority of those "votes" go to the holders of the list or the first names on the list, and these are mostly men," the agency said.
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