Relations between Serbia and Montenegro continue to be burdened by numerous diplomatic and political conflicts. On the one hand, it sounds incredible that two, as is often heard, "brotherly and friendly states", have reached such a stage of mutual relations, but it is obvious that even two close states cannot avoid a whole series of wrong steps that lead to numerous tensions and misunderstandings .
The problem of the former authorities' decision to expel the Serbian ambassador to Montenegro, Vladimir Božović, appeared as a kind of basic stumbling block, which the new authorities practically confirmed. Official Belgrade did not reciprocate with the same diplomatic measure, most likely expecting that the decision might be withdrawn. However, since that did not happen, both sides remained in positions that something should be done to overcome the issue, but it seems that no one knows how.
This is precisely why the mutual visit of the Prime Ministers of the two countries, Ana Brnabić and Zdravko Krivokapić, who these days, choosing their words, exchange diplomatic accusations through the media, is pending. The Montenegrin side claims that Ana Brnabić has not responded to the invitation to visit Montenegro for a month, which again responds "that it is inconvenient to visit the country from which the ambassador of your country was expelled and declared persona non grata".
Diplomatic puzzle
This diplomatic conundrum should apparently not be unsolvable, because Belgrade believes that this decision can easily be withdrawn, but the new Montenegrin government still has one big problem, which is the obstruction at every step of the current president of Montenegro, Milo Đukanović.
Therefore, political analyst Dragomir Anđelković told DW that he believes "that the old ambassador should stay in Montenegro, because it is a deliberate political act of the former government with the intention of spoiling the relations between Belgrade and Podgorica." Serbia should have more patience here, for the simple reason that it is a very difficult tradition of the previous government - the new government might want to do something, but they don't want to leave an impression and send a message that they are working according to Belgrade's directives. There is also the influence of the West, which did write off Đukanović, but at the same time does not want too close ties between Belgrade and Podgorica," Anđelković assesses.
Montenegrin realignments
The currently unsatisfactory level of relations between Serbia and Montenegro is, I think, primarily a consequence of the relations inherited by the previous authorities, Ivo Čolović, program director of CeSID, told DW.
"I have the impression that Belgrade, by deciding not to make the same gesture towards the Montenegrin ambassador Tarzan Milošević in Serbia, expected that decision to be withdrawn. And that, it seems to me, did not happen because of the realignment on the internal stage of Montenegro. "There are probably some currents within the new government that also do not support the way Ambassador Božović represented Serbia, and who may expect that a new person will appear for that position, which would help relax the relations between the two countries," observes Čolović.
Dragomir Anđelković believes that Serbia expects the problem of the ambassador to be resolved before any diplomatic visits and states that "it is not logical for the Prime Minister of Serbia to visit Montenegro before, in my opinion, this rather big diplomatic scandal is resolved." In international practice, there have been no cases of a visit at the highest state level immediately after the expulsion of the ambassador," notes Anđelković.
Ivo Čolović also sees the hard position of the Serbian authorities that there are no mutual visits until some things are resolved, "as a kind of revolt in Belgrade. After the announcement of the election results, Zdravko Krivokapić tried to somehow distance himself from the fact that Belgrade and the Serbian Orthodox Church were responsible for his victory. It is possible that this fencing caused negative reactions from the authorities in Belgrade. In this situation, the influence of political vanities should not be ignored either," observes Čolović.
Resetting the relationship
The reset of relations between the two countries must take into account that "the former government carried out unprecedented discrimination against Serbs in Montenegro", emphasizes Dragomir Anđelković. "The new government would have to change that, not only because of relations with Serbia, but also because of the stability of Montenegro. Otherwise, Montenegro will have a schizophrenic, divided society", Anđelković warns.
The statements of the President of Montenegro, Milo Đukanović, at his party's congress, and his rather harsh words against Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), which he sees as "instigators, executioners, and advocates of the most monstrous genocide in Europe in the modern era", only further complicated the relations between the two of the state. Belgrade did not take kindly to such rhetoric, which, among other things, is assessed as a "failed policy of hatred and division". To that should be added the statements of Zdravko Krivokapić, which are on the trail of what the Serbian opposition claims almost every day, that Milo Đukanović and Aleksandar Vučić are very close business and political partners, so understand all the complexity of mutual relations between Serbia and Montenegro.
"Milo Đukanović will certainly not try to make it easier for the new authorities to establish good bilateral relations with Serbia", comments Ivo Čolović in this context. "However, it should be kept in mind that this is also intended for some internal circumstances and the further positioning of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), which is slowly moving from the center to the right. I think we can expect more similar statements from DPS officials, which will make it even more difficult to improve the relations between the two countries and bring additional turmoil within Montenegro itself," Čolović points out.
Dragomir Anđelković adds "that Milo Đukanović's behavior led to such relations between Serbia and Montenegro." Đukanović will continue with it, but I think that the new government should not pay too much attention to it. She should establish a normal system in which no one will be discriminated against, where everyone can express themselves however they want, and everyone will be able to get a job for which they are qualified, regardless of their national and religious affiliation," Anđelković concludes.
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