The Western Balkans is anxiously awaiting the results of today's elections in Germany, as it is uncertain whether the new chancellor will continue Angela Merkel's policy towards the region and support for its integration into the EU.
"Vijesta" interlocutors agree that Merkel has stood up for the region a lot, but that her influence has weakened in recent years.
During Merkel's 16-year term as chancellor, the EU expanded to include Croatia, Montenegro opened accession negotiations, as did Serbia, while the opening of negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia is still pending.
Criticisms are also heard against her that she tolerated the stabilocratic regimes - Janez Janša in Slovenia, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Ivo Sanader in Croatia, Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia, Milo Đukanović in Montenegro...
Stabilocracy is the name given to the support that Western democracies provide to the regimes of peripheral countries that implement undemocratic practices, but still provide some stability in terms of internal and foreign policy.
Senior associate of the Council for Democratization Policy (DPC) from Berlin, Bodo Weber, told "Vijesti" that there is a certain nervousness in the Western Balkans (WB) about the end of Chancellor Angela Merkel's era.
"People are wondering if there will be continuity in German involvement in the region and for the enlargement of the EU to the West Bank. It must be said that Chancellor Merkel took a leading role within the Union, to push the EU forward after the Eurocrisis, against the widespread fatigue of enlargement. However, in the last couple of years, that leadership has weakened a lot. Therefore, I think that with the new government, German leadership in EU policy towards the WB should be revived. In this regard, the policy of the future government is quite uncertain," explains Weber.
In the race for Merkel's successor are her party colleague Armin Lašet, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Olaf Šolz, Minister of Finance from the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Analena Baerbok from the Green Party, which the polls give little chance.
Weber says that, in general, all relevant parliamentary parties and all candidates for Merkel's successor support the enlargement policy.
"However, only the Greens in their election program put a significant emphasis on ZB. That's why we have to wait for the outcome of these, really quite uncertain elections".
German journalist Keno Versek believes that the new chancellor of the ZB will not be a priority.
"Neither Lašet nor Šolz have a special interest and knowledge about ZB and it will not be a priority for them", says Versek, who follows the situation in Central and Eastern Europe, and writes for "Spiegel", "Deutsche Vele", FAZ, ARD, BBC... .
He adds that Lashet made some worrying "pro-Kremlin" statements and advocated a so-called dialogue with Vladimir Putin's regime "despite the increasing militant aggressiveness and repression in Russia".
"The same pro-Kremlin attitude applies to the SPD in general. This could also affect ZB because Lašet and the SPD will not act decisively against Russian games of destabilization in ZB. The ZB is also not a major issue for the Greens, but they have some important politicians with open voices who support democratization, the rule of law and civil society on the ZB, such as Manuel Saracino or Viola von Kramon. If the Greens get the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it would also be a good signal because they are quite against the Kremlin," Versek said.
Srđan Cvijić from the Brussels-based Open Society Institute for European Politics tells "Vijesti" that in case the Social Democrats win the position of chancellor, we should not expect a revolutionary change in relations with the region "because any German government will be condemned to cooperate with the elected representatives of the Balkan states".
However, he expects somewhat harsher rhetoric when it comes to further capture of the state and suppression of democracy and for Germany to take a more decisive stance in support of EU expansion, especially when it comes to Montenegro.
"First of all, I expect, in combination with the Greens and the third partner in the new coalition government in that scenario, that Germany will take a more decisive stance in support of enlargement. I am optimistic if a new coalition government is established in which the Greens and the SDP prevail, especially when it comes to Montenegro," said Cvijić.
He reminds that Montenegro, like other countries on the WB, does not have serious problems in relations with neighboring countries.
"The public opinions of even the most skeptical member countries (such as France) are more ambivalent or support its entry into the EU than oppose it, so I expect that the new government in Berlin would be more willing to work with other EU members (especially those skeptical of expansion) advocate more actively for speeding up the whole process. We should also not forget that certain parts of the Christian Democrats and their partners from the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) were themselves skeptical of accelerating the membership of the WB countries in the EU, and the new government in which these political circles have a somewhat weaker influence could be politically 'freer' in support of ZB".
Merkel often said that the Commonwealth of Independent States should be part of the EU, but also warned that corruption is a major problem in the region.
After the online summit of the Berlin Process on July 5, the last under her leadership, Merkel said that "the accession process of the countries of the EU region is taking longer and progressing more slowly than many expected and that there is still much to be done in the fight against corruption."
The Berlin Process is a diplomatic initiative that she launched in 2014 to help the integration of the WB into the EU.
Towards the end of her mandate this month, Merkel visited Belgrade, then Tirana, where she met with regional leaders.
She said that her "heart beats for this region", even though she will no longer be on duty.
"Perhaps the sun will tempt me to come back and see the progress of these nations," she said in Tirana and said that every German chancellor would be a friend of the region.
When asked whether Merkel managed to bring the Council of Ministers closer to the EU, Versek replied that she did not.
"The WB is much further from the EU than in 2013/14, although this is not only Merkel's fault. If it depended on Germany, North Macedonia and Albania would have started negotiations on accession two years ago".
Versek also believes that the Berlin process - if measured according to the self-proclaimed goals - is almost a complete failure.
He states that the state of democracy and the rule of law is much worse in Serbia and Albania since 2013/14. and that the regime of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić "has become the most dangerous in the region and the most undemocratic in Europe after Russia and Belarus."
"In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the situation is unchanged or worse, democratic changes and reform processes in Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro were in any case achieved by its citizens, not the EU, the Berlin Process or foreign politicians and diplomats," says Versek.
He believes that only in North Macedonia, the EU and German diplomacy played a certain role in regime change, but all in all, the "Colorful Revolution" overthrew the regime of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski in 2016.
"The Berlin process also failed to implement another important and self-proclaimed goal - support and dialogue with civil society. On the other hand, the Berlin process indirectly contributed to the economic benefits for Germany because it guaranteed the flow of cheap and qualified labor from the WB to Germany".
Weber says that in the first part of her engagement, Merkel succeeded in pushing the region towards the EU and that she obliges the member states to keep the prospect of regional membership open.
"However, after various crises in 2015-16. In XNUMX, its influence weakened considerably, and thus the credibility of the Union in the region and the perspective of membership - primarily due to the appearance of French President Emmanuel Macron, who is intimately against further expansion. This development greatly undermined Merkel's initial successes in the Western Balkans - from the political dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia to the Berlin process through the establishment of a competing project, the so-called Mini-Schengen, i.e. the Open Balkans, which can partly be seen as the reactions of the countries of the region (Albania and North Macedonia) to the French blocking of the opening of pre-accession negotiations. So, at the end of her reign, the chancellor was left quite empty-handed as far as her involvement in the Western Balkans is concerned."
Necessary pressure on Vučić and Đukanović, a new war is also possible
Commenting on criticism of the outgoing chancellor's mild attitude towards autocrats, from Vladimir Putin, through Viktor Orban to Aleksandar Vučić, and answering the question of whether it is time for a different German approach to the Balkans, Cvijić says that relations between Germany and those countries are built primarily according to Germany's interests .
"Let's take the example of Serbia. Germany under Angela Merkel needed a partner in Serbia who would enable the further expansion and protection of its economic interests and who would stop the arrival of a large number of refugees on its territory. This requires close cooperation with the authorities in Belgrade. As long as the Vučić regime does not cross the red line and slip into open and violent authoritarianism, like, for example, the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, or begins to threaten the stability of the region, the governments in Germany will support the elected authorities in the Balkans, no matter how corrupt the regimes of the countries in the region are or populist-minded. Of course, the fact that Vučić's SNS is part of the joint family with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats must have contributed somewhat to this kind of relationship being favorable".
Versek says that there are many factors why all these autocrats and "sometimes criminals" were able to stay in power, but Merkel never openly expressed her disagreement with them and thus helped them.
"Some claim that Merkel openly criticized them behind closed doors, but even if she did, it had no effect. Vučić's regime is now the most dangerous for the West Bank, and also for Europe. Vučić and his allies, the Serbian Orthodox Church, the Democratic Front, etc. they are also a good opportunity for Đukanović to play with fire. So, from this point of view, support for the so-called stabilocracy proved a wrong diplomatic concept because stabilocrats do not hesitate to 'plant dynamite' in their countries when they are in danger of losing power”.
He believes that not only from a moral point of view, but also from the point of view of stability, it was a better long-term concept that supports democratization, even if it is a "bumpy road" in the beginning like Montenegro has now.
"If now German diplomacy does not put really strong pressure on Vučić and Đukanović and try to stop them, they will be an accomplice to very dangerous developments in the ZB, to more and more instability and violence in the short term and perhaps a new war in the long term," warns Versek.
Milo is a little bit ours, and a little bit not
Weber says he is not sure that the list of stabilocratic regimes for which Merkel is criticized is fair to her.
"Sanader was eventually arrested and convicted of corruption. The problem of illiberal EU member states is not the result of Angela Merkel's policy as such, although the ruling German conservatives bear significant responsibility for the fact that the EU did not seriously oppose the authoritarian transformation of Hungary under Orbán in time. Neither Berlin nor the EU as a whole have ever found a differentiated approach towards Montenegro and the Đukanović regime, which on the one hand was ours due to its pro-Western orientation, and on the other, due to the state of democracy and the rule of law, it was not really ours".
He believes that Merkel bears the most direct responsibility for the dramatic authoritarian-autocratic transformation of Serbia under Vučić.
"It can be said that Merkel made Vučić. But not as a targeted product, but as a collateral damage of the loss of the strategic direction of the Kosovo-Serbia political dialogue, which started out as historical, and then was allowed to fall into a deep crisis, and by pushing the territory exchange agreement, it even turned into its opposite for a while. That heavy legacy of responsibility for the gloomy state of today's Serbia will fall on Merkel's successor or successor," said Weber.
He states that the term "stabilocracy" is somewhat imprecise, because it gives the impression that they are the goal of Western politics, EU politics.
"Rather, it is a product of the absence of a strategic policy towards the ZB, and insufficient political will for the Union to seriously deal with the region. In such a situation, in such a vacuum, the priority becomes that the region remains at least apparently stable - because any destabilization would force Brussels and the Western capitals to seriously deal with the region".
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