The arrival in the Western Balkans of American diplomats who have extensive experience in this area means that the USA will be more involved in solving the problems of the region and will pay more attention to aggressive ethno-nationalist rhetoric, according to "Vijesti" interlocutors.
Director of the Novi Sad Center for Regionalism Alexander Popov reminds that after arrival Joe Biden at the head of the USA, there was an announcement about a turn in the foreign policy of a great power, which has already started to happen during his mandate.
"First of all, it is about restoring the American-European partnership that was damaged by Biden's predecessor (Donald) Tramp. In this context, a joint effort to resolve some pressing issues in the Western Balkans, primarily Kosovo, was also mentioned. There is even a deadline that expires at the end of this year for Belgrade and Pristina to reach a legally binding agreement (in the European version) or an agreement on mutual recognition (in the American version)," Popov told "Vijesti".
However, as he adds, this has not happened so far because there was a lack of serious engagement by the US, because the new administration was obviously more interested in tidying things up in its own house, but also with larger global issues and problems.
"I hope that the arrival of new people in the region, who enjoy the great trust of President Biden, and have great experience in this area, will mean a more effective involvement of the US in solving not only the problems of Kosovo, but also of Bosnia and Herzegovina," said Popov.
After the arrival of Biden at the head of the USA, the region received career American diplomats with significant experience. Thus, on Thursday, the White House confirmed that he is the new American ambassador in Belgrade Christopher Hill, knowledgeable about regional issues considering that he was a deputy Richard Holbrooke, the chief American negotiator during the Dayton peace talks, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He was also the US special envoy for Kosovo, ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Poland, North Macedonia and Albania. He will replace the ambassador Anthony Godfrey who has been in Belgrade since November 2019.
It is previous Gabriel Escobar appointed special US envoy in September. He replaced Escobar in that position Matthew Palmer and he also knows very well the opportunities at the WB because he has held several positions in the countries of the region. In the period from 1998 to 2001, he was the head of the cabinet in the office of the High Representative in Banja Luka, as well as the deputy head of the diplomatic team in Podgorica. Escobar has spent the last two years, starting in August 2019, as the deputy US ambassador in Belgrade.
The White House also announced that the new ambassador to BiH will be Michael Murphy. He was the deputy chief of mission at the American embassy in Kosovo from 2009 to 2012, and three years earlier he was a political adviser at the American embassy in Sarajevo.
Analyst and professor at "John Hopkins" University in Washington Siniša Vuković He tells "Vijesti" that the appointment of Hill as the new ambassador to Serbia is surprising on the one hand, and encouraging on the other.
"Surprising because the decision was made to 'reactivate' a career diplomat who has been retired for ten years, and who in the previous period was primarily engaged in academic work. Encouraging because this is about a great connoisseur of the region, a man who directly participated in the key processes of the 90s", said Vuković.
He believes that as someone who was involved in the peace negotiations in Dayton, Hill will certainly not allow creative interpretations of that agreement that have been dominating for some time in secessionist circles in the smaller entity in BiH (Republic of Srpska).
He states that at the same time, a better understanding of the often neglected coincidences of today's policies in Belgrade with those of the era can be expected Slobodan Milosevic.
"In other words, the tendencies to test the limits of the West's patience, which have become part of the frequent behavior of official Belgrade, will no longer be ignored. It should be expected that more attention will be paid to aggressive ethno-nationalist rhetoric, camouflaged by self-victimization and supposedly 'legitimate' political interests in other countries (which is nonsense)," Vuković assessed.
He says there are signs that increasing attention is being focused on the region.
"The decrees against those who work to undermine stability in the region, which were passed by the new authorities in Washington, clearly indicate that attention and intentions exist. Clear actions have yet to follow, and then it will be much clearer what the ultimate intentions of the current administration are when it comes to the region and the pro-Western course that is nominally being promoted," said Vuković.
He also states that the appointment of Escobar is a signal that the State Department wants to re-establish control over diplomatic activity in the region.
"That influence was greatly undermined by the appointment (Richard) Grenela as a special envoy of the White House (for Kosovo), who worked alongside (and often opposite) the activities that Escobar's predecessor, Matthew Palmer, was nominally in charge of. Therefore, even the appointment of Escobar is not an exception or something extraordinary in relation to the previous practice of the State Department when it comes to the region", says Vuković.
He adds that the previous practice of the State Department was to send mainly career diplomats to the Western Balkans.
"There were rare cases when the position was given to someone who donated certain funds to support the presidential campaign, so the White House tried to repay such support with a diplomatic position. At the same time, the fact that these are career diplomats all these years does not mean that they all came with the same knowledge, experience and mandate. On the contrary, as the past practice shows, the results of the activities of the career diplomats in the region were very diverse, and as such they do not help us to understand the political intentions of any of the administrations if we rely only on that item as a key element of any assessment," he said. is Vuković.
When asked whether the new American administration has decided to pay more attention to the region, given the frequent warnings that the WB could fall under the influence of "third parties" (China, Russia), Aleksandar Popov answers that in the announcement of more serious American involvement in the region there is that too.
"Though, essentially, turning over some parts of the region to Russia and China would be disastrous for them because it would separate them from the natural environment they belong to and push them into isolation. Not to mention the financial benefits from the use of EU pre-accession funds, without which their economies would hardly be successful," said Popov.
Europe has had enough of Orban, Janša and others from the Visegrad group
Popov reminds that the USA supports the process of joining the countries of the region, but will not overly insist on speeding up that process.
"They understand the EU's fear that, by admitting certain countries with authoritarian rule and high levels of corruption, they may not repeat earlier mistakes where they admitted former socialist countries to their membership that either did not meet the criteria in the rule of law and building independent institutions, or made a regression in those areas after admission. in the EU. So far, they have had enough of Orban, Janša and others from the Višegrad group," says Popov.
US support for the region's integration into the EU is welcome, but not crucial
Vuković believes that it is always good when the EU and the USA cooperate in the region.
"Grenel's action in the previous period shows to what extent the lack of coordination can affect the clear perspective of the region when it comes to the processes that bind them to the West. However, in the current geopolitical circumstances, the US and many EU members occasionally take different positions, which, although they are not opposed to each other, can create a certain amount of confusion in the region regarding plans, strategies, expectations and the possibility of better integrating the region into the Western system. US support for the further integration of the Western Balkans into the EU is certainly welcome, but at the moment it is not decisive for the decisions that some EU member states will make when it comes to enlargement".
Bonus video:
